Clausen to have surgery and miss combine

Jimmy Clausen will have surgery to repair torn ligaments in his right big toe and as a result will miss the NFL combine in February/March. The Notre Dame quarterback played the final ten games of his college career with the problem, but will take the opportunity now to get things cleared up before his pro-career. Clausen will throw for scouts during a pro-day to be arranged for April.

How will this affect his stock? Teams will admire his toughness to play through the injury in college. On the other hand, scouts will want to check the surgery has been successful and that this won't cause future issues. I've raised questions about Clausen's mechanics and first round credentials in the past - I'm not sure the surgery will necessarily hinder his grading in any substantial way.

The history of 6th, 14th and 40th overall

We know the Seahawks will be picking 6th, 14th and 40th overall in the 2010 NFL Draft. The Seahawks famously took Walter Jones with the 6th overall pick in 1997. Let's have a look at who's been taken with those picks over the last five years. To be precise - four cornerbacks, three safety's (two of which are the Bullocks twins), two Pro Bowlers but no skill position players.

2009
6th overall - Andre Smith (OT, Bengals)
14th overall - Malcolm Jenkins (CB, Saints)
40th overall - Ron Brace (DT, Patriots)

Review
Andre Smith started one game as a rookie having endured an injury plagued first year in the NFL. Jenkins has been used at cornerback despite many tipping him to eventually transfer to safety - he has one pick for the year and two forced fumbles. Brace started his first game for New England against Buffalo last week. It's too soon to judge the '09 class, but there have to be concerns about Smith after all the injuries this season.

2008
6th overall - Vernon Gholston (LB, Jets)
14th overall - Chris Williams (OT, Bears)
40th overall - Tracy Porter (CB, Saints)

Review
Gholston has been a complete bust so far and even Rex Ryan's favorable system hasn't helped him to have an impact. Chris Williams took over as Chicago's left tackle this season from Orlando Pace and is very much viewed as the future blind side blocker for Jay Cutler. Porter was put on injured reserve as a rookie but has been a greater feature this season - collecting four picks. A mixed bag, but Williams has a lot of potential to have a very good career.

2007
6th overall - LaRon Landry (S, Redskins)
14th overall - Darrelle Revis (CB, Jets)
40th overall - John Beck (QB, Dolphins)

Review
Landry was a stud at LSU and has been largely succesful in the NFL. He has 250 total tackles, three sacks and three interceptions. Revis has developed into one of the top defensive backs in the league. He's been a revelation this season with six interceptions (14 in his career) and is part of the AFC Pro Bowl roster. Beck was an ill-fated pick by Cam Cameron and was released by the Dolphins in April this year. He's since linked up with Cameron again in Baltimore.

2006
6th overall - Vernon Davis (TE, 49ers)
14th overall - Brodrick Bunkley (DT, Eagles)
40th overall - Daniel Bullocks (S, Detroit)

Review
It's taken a while, but Davis appears to be reaching his potential under Mike Singletary. Named to the NFC Pro Bowl roster this year, he's recorded 965 yards and 13 TD's in 2009. In three years prior to that, he only recorded a total of 1132 yards and 9 TD's. Bunkley is a regular starter for Philly, but only has six sacks in four years. Bullocks only participated in one game this year - a pre-season win over Atlanta.

2005
6th overall - Adam Jones (CB, Titans)
14th overall - Thomas Davis (LB, Carolia)
40th overall - Josh Bullocks (S, Saints)

Review
Jones' (formerly known as 'Pacman') problems are well publicised. His latest 'comeback' was with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the CFL - until they came to their senses and cancelled the agreement. Undoubtedly talented, but a real waste of that talent. Davis started only seven games this season following a career year in 2008. Unlike is twin brother, Josh featured in four NFL games this season for Chicago having left New Orleans in the off season.

Further afield
The 2004 draft provided Kellen Winslow Jr (6th overall) and Tommie Harris (14th overall) - Seattle would love another Harris to be waiting in the mid teens this April. Jeremy Shockey went 14th overall in 2002 and Richard Seymour was the 6th overall selection in 2001. The Rams took Grant Wistrom and Torry Holt with the 6th overall picks in 1998 and 1999. Tim Ruskell and co. took Trent Dilfer 6th overall in 1994 for Tampa Bay.

Overall the Seahawks have picked 6th overall twice (Walter Jones '97, Jeff Bryant '82). There's only been one pick 14th overall previously when Seattle took Steve August in 1977.

Seahawks will pick 6th and 14th

With defeat to the Tennessee Titans today, Seattle own the 6th overall pick in the 2010 draft. But for a late San Diego touchdown against Washington, they would've been selecting 5th overall. The second first rounder is more complicated, but thanks to Louis for helping with the strength of schedule calculations - we believe Seattle will be picking 14th or 15th overall depending on whether the New York Jets win or lose against Cincinnati. A win for Sanchez and co. will give the Seahawks the 14th overall pick. Seattle also owns the 4oth overall pick (8th pick in round two).

Known draft order:

1. St. Louis (1-15)
2. Detroit (2-14)
3. Tampa Bay (3-13)
4. Washington (4-12)
5. Kansas City (4-12)
6. Seattle (5-11)
7. Cleveland (5-11)
8. Oakland (5-11)
9. Buffalo (6-10)
10. Jacksonville (7-9) (Jags takes 10th outright if Bengals win, coin flip otherwise)
11. Denver via Chicago (7-9) (subject to coin flip)
12. Miami (7-9)
13. San Francisco (8-8)
14. Seattle via Denver (8-8) (15th if Bengals win)
15. New York Giants (8-8) (coin flip with Tennessee for 16th if Bengals win)
16. SF via Carolina (8-8) (coin flip with Tennessee for 17th if Bengals win)
17. Tennessee (8-8) (possible two-tiered coin-flip with Giants and Carolina if Bengals win)
18. Pittsburgh (9-7) (19th if Bengals win)
19. Atlanta (9-7) (subject to coin flip) (20th if Bengals win)
20. Houston (9-7) (subject to coin flip) (21st and in playoffs if Bengals win)

Mallett's performance emphasises pro's and con's

Ryan Mallett did enough to help Arkansas win the Liberty Bowl 20-17 against East Carolina. I discussed yesterday his inconsistency in big games and how it's affected his completion percentage. He made only 41.7% of his passes against the Pirates, throwing for 202 yards and a touchdown. Arkansas didn't convert a single third down all night and struggled mightily in the red zone - all criticisms of Mallett in the past.

However, at the same time he was severely let down by his receivers for most of the game. He flashed that big arm, made all the throws. His accuracy was an improvement from what I've seen in the past. Sure - there were a few over thrown passes. But in general there were also some very good throws, threading a needle - putting it into the right kind of places. Mallett always presents a nice tight spiral and his throwing action is very good (he's 6'7" but releases the ball well over his head, probably at around 7'0"+).

It was also pleasing to see him take the majority of his snaps from under center. He moved around well - something that's concerned me in the past. That was an unexpected positive in what was overall a game in which we generally learnt nothing new. Mallett can make every throw - we knew that. He's got ideal size - we knew that. His accuracy can suffer in short-mid range - we knew that.

Brandon Marcello reports that Mallett wasn't prepared to reveal after the game whether he'll declare. I still think he's going to head for the NFL draft and possibly go earlier than I initially thought. Out of all the QB's in the 2010 class who are likely to be available, I think Mallett would be the one I'd be most willing to invest in. You don't have to concern yourself with his mechanics and he's carrying a NFL frame. His arm strength will demand respect and although he needs to refine his technique and polish that accuracy - I think he'll also benefit playing with better receivers.

Every college quarterback could use an extra year's seasoning. Mallett's situation is unusual in that he transferred from Michigan and although he's been around for a while - he's still only a red shirt sophomore. Realistically he could play in Arkansas for two more years. In an ideal situation, he'd be working on becoming a more complete prospect in that time with the Razorbacks and not sat holding a clipboard. But we know the situation financially these players face. Jake Locker is bucking a trend and taking the same risk Sam Bradford did. I'm not convinced pro scouts and GM's will be satisfied with Bradford's durability issues after his year of injuries. Jimmy Clausen isn't the top pick some are projecting in my opinion. Ryan Mallett could be the X-Factor in the 2010 draft as far as quarterbacks go.

Elsewhere... Bryan Bulaga is likely to make a decision on whether he'll declare after the Orange Bowl on Tuesday, reports Marc Morehouse. I think it's almost certain Bulaga will head for the pro's.

Okung, OSU ugly in Cotton Bowl

For the record, the Cotton Bowl was a pretty awful game all round between Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. Twelve turnovers in total, bad execution from both offenses and neither side deserved to win this game. Unfortunately, once again I'm left wondering why exactly Russell Okung is being touted as a potential top five pick.

It's only fair to mention that Okung (OT, OSU) was a doubt coming into this game with a knee injury. That could've played a part in what was frankly a very patchy display but this is the kind of thing I've seen before when Okung was healthy. At times he's very good in pass protection, when he engages one-on-one and sets himself, he generally does a good job. However, he just isn't 'dominant'. There were two huge plays in the fourth quarter where I just thought, "wow - that's not good."

The first instance came with 14:09 remaining and OSU with 2nd and 5. The quarterback Zach Robinson is under center and drops back to pass. Okung confronts the right defensive end off the snap, but the rusher simply moves inside, brushing past Okung as if he wasn't there. Even after the guy makes his way to the QB, it takes Okung 2-3 second to react to what's happened and by this point, he's stood in the open field looking at his QB being slammed into the ground. Robinson got up clutching his ribs and back. It was a general lack of effort to not even get his hands on the DE (who must be giving up around 30-40lbs on Okung) and the play in general looked very sloppy.

The second example came with 2:13 left and OSU with 3rd and 7 trying to rescue the game having gone behind 21-7. This time Robinson is in the shotgun with a linebacker making a late run off the edge. He engages Okung but the big tackle just lazily puts his hands on the guy and allows him to effortlessly brush past with absolute ease and get to the QB. It leads to a tipped pass that's very nearly intercepted. Again, the linebacker is nowhere near matching the size and power of Okung and should've been brushed away with relative ease. Instead, he's just flat out beaten off the edge with a very basic move. It's a lack of effort, nastiness and ability to just dominate. Most NFL tackles in that situation would've dealt with that linebacker by pushing him over, probably with one arm.

I have to believe if the knee was that bad, he wouldn't have played in this game with his NFL career at stake. Jason Fox (OT, Miami) didn't play his bowl game and had premature surgery citing the risk to his pro career as the reason. Okung wouldn't risk millions to play. The knee is a consideration here, but not a pass. Okung should still be able to deliver some kind of a punch. He'll be facing bigger, faster guys in the NFL. I didn't see Anthony Davis get beat like Okung did today when I scouted Rutgers. When scouting last year's prospects, I didn't see Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe or Michael Oher get beat like Okung did today. Andre Smith I did - but his value was always as a run blocking right tackle.

I've said for a while I think Okung is worthy of mid-late first round consideration. Nothing I've seen today makes me think I'm wide of the mark on this one, even though most people have him pinned in the top 5-10 picks. I've had him going in the top ten in my mock drafts recently mainly due to the premium on offensive lineman in the NFL. I might have to reconsider that projection.

This isn't going to be a great year for offensive tackles at the top of the draft. There could be better value later on if Okung, Bryan Bulaga and Charles Brown last a while.

Time to take a look at prospective 2010 prospect Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) who's in action against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl. For more on his situation, click here.

Best to declare - Snead benched

Jahvid Best says he will declare for the 2010 NFL Draft. The California running back was expected to turn pro this year, especially after suffering a season ending concussion on November 7th. It was Best's second serious concussion in his college career - something that will concern scouts and GM's. He's not the biggest guy at a generously listed 5'10", 195lbs and whether he's durable enough to sustain regular punishment in the NFL will have to be considered. On the other hand - only C.J. Spiller can match Best for explosiveness in this draft class. He's a threat to score every time he has the ball with great speed and athleticism. He ended 2009 with 867 yards and 12 rushing scores.

Elsewhere, I'm currently watching the Cotton Bowl between Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. Jevan Snead has been benched after three interceptions in the first half. He did receive a big hit in the second quarter and left the game for two series, but returned before half-time to throw another pick. There's no doubt in my mind it's Snead's awful performance and not the hit that's keeping him on the sidelines. A hot tip to go first overall this year, Snead has endured a disastrous season. Despite this, he's maintained he'll consider declaring for April's draft. I can't decide which would be better - get out of a situation that is clearly destroying his confidence and career in the process or stay and try to leave on a better note. It's hard to justify declaring after getting benched in your final game, but will he even start next year at this rate?

Ryan Mallett: will he or won't he?

Ryan Mallet leads Arkansas into the Liberty Bowl today against East Carolina - will it be his last game for the Razorbacks? Nobody seems to know Mallett's intentions at the moment. We do know he's appealed to the draft committee for information on his grade and he's certainly left the door open with a series of 'no comment' remarks when asked about the NFL. I've said on this blog for weeks that I felt one of Jake Locker or Mallett would declare, I think it's almost certain Mallett will be available in April.

I don't think an announcement will be made immediately after today's game. Expect Mallett to go away and use the time available to him to discuss things with coach Bobby Petrino and his family. Underclassmen have until January 15th to file their papers. I'm not sure what the best decision would be for the former Michigan transfer. On the one hand - nobody has staked a real claim to be the first quarterback taken this year. There are lingering durability concerns with Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen - despite a lot of hype and good stats this year - has a questionable throwing motion and hasn't convinced me he's worthy of a top pick.

Mallett has prototype size (6'7", 230lbs) and decent mechanics. He has the kind of arm that has scouts drooling. They are the positives. On the other hand, he's incredibly raw. Having watched him against Florida and Auburn, Mallett showed he can make the long bomb downfield but his short term accuracy was all over the place - particularly in the red zone. In the Florida game in particular, his issues deep in Gator territory potentially cost Arkansas the upset of the year.

Let's look at the stats. On the year Mallett recorded an impressive 3425 yards and a TD/INT ratio of 29/7. His completion percentage was at 52.7%. That all looks fine. However, when you look at Mallett's stats against tougher opponents, it paints a different story.

Completion percentage:

vs Alabama - 34.4%
vs Florida - 44.4%
vs Ole Miss - 35.3%
vs LSU - 43.6%

Now let's look at Mallett's stats against the weaker opponents on the Razorbacks schedule:

vs Troy - 76.7%
vs South Carolina - 85.2%
vs Eastern Michigan - 87.5%
vs Missouri State - 77.3%

Obviously these stats are not solely on Mallett, but I think it hints at the issues I have with him. He lacks polish that an extra year in college would improve. But we say that about every underclassmen quarterback - by now we understand that these guys will declare and who can blame them with the kind of money on offer in the NFL?

If he is available in April, whoever drafts him will have to work on his footwork from day one. I don't think he'll be able to take snaps under center. That's something Joe Flacco did tremendously well when he was taken by Baltimore, but a lot of credit also has to go to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Mallett will need a similar mentor.

He then has to work on that accuracy issue. Can it be fixed? Possibly. But then that's what separates the top quarterbacks in the NFL and the rest. Jay Cutler has the arm, the size, all the tools. So why has he never been in the post season? Mallett likewise has everything you want from a quarterback, but unless that short range accuracy improves he won't justify first round investment. Such is the draft though, it wouldn't surprise me if Mallett went in the top half of round one. This is a quarterback league, after all.

Arkansas take on Eastern Michigan at 5:30pm EST. So will he declare? Should he declare? Let me know in the comments section or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com

Eric Berry will declare

This was expected, especially after Lane Kiffin revealed as much before the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Eric Berry will head for the 2010 NFL draft and skip his senior year. Despite many people touting Berry as a top ten pick - I have major reservations. I've added a 'prospect archives' section to the right hand side bar - click the link and you'll be able to locate articles on a number of 2010 prospects that have been written over the last few months. Check the 'Eric Berry' articles (like this one) to see why I'm not totally sold on his high draft stock.

Any Volunteers? Part 1 of 2

As I continue to look at possible running back selections for Seattle in the 2010 draft, this report is about a couple of Tennessee Volunteers that Seattle might look at in the 2010 draft - Montario Hardesty (HB) and Dan Williams (DT). Originally I was going to scout just Hardesty but with DT being a weakness for Seattle - and Williams considered the best defensive tackle that doesn't play in the Big 12 - I couldn't pass up the opportunity to look at Williams (who I will discuss in a post immediately following this one).

First, though, let's start with Hardesty (6'0 215). After tearing his ACL in the 2005 season, Hardesty struggled to get regular playing time behind (Texans RB) Arian Foster. With a new coaching staff and a vacancy at the running back position, Hardesty enjoyed a breakout year - running for over 1300 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns.

Hardesty is a pretty interesting back. While he has enough speed to run outside the tackles on any given play (comparable speed to Maurice Morris), he primarily runs between the tackles and does that quite well. He runs a little high (at least somewhat due to a high-cut frame) and has only good initial quickness, but he is tough and fairly creative. He doesn't do a great job avoiding tackles behind the LOS, which is probably a pre-requisite to play in Seattle, but once he takes a couple of steps he shows a willingness to lower the shoulder as well as the vision and moves to work his way through traffic.

Most impressive is Hardesty's understanding of angles. While not a requirement to be an effective runner, a back who can consistently avoid taking the big hit is going to increase his chance of staying healthy in the NFL. Hardesty shows an understanding of that, spinning and sliding to pick up more yardage while also protecting his body. While he doesn't have the strength of a Toby Gerhart or Anthony Dixon, he does manage to fall forward just about as often.

What separates Hardesty from inside runners like Gerhart is his speed. Hardesty shows the ability to turn on the gas in the open field, at one point leaving a pretty athletic Georgia secondary in the dust for a long touchdown. He has some talent as a receiver, catching a deep pass on a wheel route and also doing a nice job splitting out wide and catching a screen pass - given his overall solid athleticism, he is an asset as a receiver.

Unfortunately, Hardesty has a couple of flaws that really do hurt him. He doesn't have any one skill that wows you. He impresses, but he doesn't fascinate. He's a solid athlete with the speed to work outside, but he doesn't threaten defenses the same way CJ Spiller or Jahvid Best does. He's a surprisingly good inside runner, but there are other backs like Toby Gerhart that are going to be more useful running inside. While Hardesty is a good receiver, he didn't impress me much as a blocker. He didn't miss a large number of blocks or anything like that, but he can be pushed back and really just tries to slow the rusher rather than stop him (due to a lack of lower-body strength).

A comparison I just can't shake is Maurice Morris. Both are taller, moderately fast backs with good moves and decent toughness, but lack the size to be every-down backs and the speed to be explosive gamechangers. They're useful, but I'm not sure they're terribly valuable. Hardesty is a back who is worth having on your team, but I'm not sure I'd spend anything earlier than a late third on him, just because I'm having trouble picturing Hardesty making a big impact at the NFL level.