We now know the complete draft order for 2010 and the scouting combine is a fortnight away. Finding an offensive playmaker will be difficult for the Seahawks in 2010. Free agency offers slim pickings, whilst trading for a walking soap opera like Brandon Marshall comes with it's own pitfalls - not to mention an expensive bounty. This isn't a draft filled with options either. If the Seahawks want to add a weapon on offense, they might have to bite the bullet early.
It's ambitious to believe Seattle's issues on offense will be solved by a rookie left tackle. That simply isn't the case. An upgrade would be desirable, but it won't stop a team stacking the box against the run or showing a heavy blitz on passing downs. Until the Seahawks offense demands respect, it won't receive any. The NFL has become a passing league - the two Super Bowl teams this year have shown what a top rated passing offense can bring. This mock draft looks at a scenario the new regime in Seattle might entertain. I've also included the first ten picks of the second round for the first time, to include Seattle's third pick in the top forty selections. I will expand to a full two-round mock after the combine.
#1 St. Louis: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
Could the Rams select McCoy ahead of Ndamukong Suh? Absolutely. There's very little separating the two top prospects in this year's class. Suh has been considered a shoe in first overall, but don't count out McCoy or one of the quarterbacks.
#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
If the Rams select McCoy, the Lions will almost certainly draft Suh. Jim Schwartz had a lot of success as a defensive coordinator in Tennessee thanks to an elite defensive tackle.
#3 Tampa Bay: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
Pierre-Paul is an explosive, raw talent. He could light up the combine. Naturally gifted with limitless potential - don't be surprised if he starts appearing in the top five in a lot more mocks.
#4 Washington: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
If Bradford can work out and convince scouts about his durability, he's a candidate to go first overall. Washington could maintain Jason Campbell's place on the roster until Bradford is ready to start.
#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
The Chiefs are committed to creating a strong 3-4 defense but lack that presence at inside linebacker. McClain can be an impact player for Kansas City.
#6 Seattle: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma)
Bryant needs to prove the year off hasn't had a negative effect on his physical condition. The Seahawks need a productive weapon on offense.
#7 Cleveland: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
In a draft with only a handful of pure offensive playmakers, Spiller's name could get called early. The Browns needs someone like this.
#8 Oakland: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
We know how Al Davis' drafts by now. Campbell will bench a ton and run a great forty time at the combine - he's been described by one coach as the offensive tackle version of Vernon Davis.
#9 Buffalo: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
Call this a hunch, but I don't expect Chan Gailey to fall for Jimmy Clausen. Offensive tackle is a huge hole in Buffalo and Davis would certainly fill it.
#10 Jacksonville: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
If the Jags really are sold on Tebow-for-tickets, they could trade down here dramatically. I can't see another team who would usurp them until round two - so why not aid that secondary rebuild with another Gator?
#11 Denver: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
Dunalp's size makes him a perfect option at five technique end in the Broncos 3-4.
#12 Miami: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The Dolphins invested two high picks in their secondary last year, but Berry would further compliment Miami's defense.
#13 San Francisco: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
Williams has performed well in Mobile. Expect a run on the top defensive lineman early in round one - Williams is the best nose tackle prospect for 3-4 teams.
#14 Seattle: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
Pete Carroll might look for a dominant interior presence to draw attention away from the edge rush. The run on top defensive lineman continues with Price adding a nice compliment to Brandon Mebane.
#15 New York Giants: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
Morgan has great potential, but amongst the cluster of 3-4 teams and alternative picks - he might suffer a slight fall on draft day. This would be a perfect fit for both prospect and team.
#16 San Francisco: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
With Joe Staley entrenched at left tackle, the 49ers could use one of their first round picks on a bookend. Bulaga could be an All-pro on the right side.
#17 Tennessee: Lamarr Houston (DT, Texas)
Another team with a need on the defensive line who might take advantage of a deep class. Houston's stock is soaring - he was great in the BCS Championship - and he could be a first round pick.
#18 Pittsburgh: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
This is one of the few places Mays could go and have a real impact. Playing behind a good pass rushing defense, Mays and fellow Trojan Troy Polamalu could create the most intimidating secondary combo in the NFL.
#19 Atlanta: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
What price a trade with Jacksonville to take Joe Haden? Jackson's stock will rise after the combine and he could go higher than this.
#20 Houston: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
The Texans' biggest need is improving their offensive line and Williams provides a nice right side option.
#21 Cincinnati: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
Bad quarterback play and inconsistent hands has hurt Benn's stock, but this is still a guy touted as a top 15 pick at the start of the year. A tight end like Jermaine Gresham is also a possibility.
#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.
#23 Green Bay: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
Kyle Rota's scouting report on Okung is an absolute must read and highlights some of the reasons why Okung might not be a top ten lock. He would've been a late first round pick as an underclassmen, nothing this year has proved otherwise in my opinion.
#24 Philadelphia: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Eagles need a better pass rush, that was evident in their playoff defeat at Dallas. Griffen's stock is difficult to project, he could rise up the boards with an impressive combine.
#25 Baltimore: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
The Ravens always find value in the draft. Gresham, as a quality pass-catching tight end, offers greater value than the receivers on offer this late in round one.
#26 Arizona: Ricky Sapp (LB, Clemson)
Arizona are still piecing together their 3-4 scheme and Sapp could be a stand out OLB.
#27 Dallas: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
The Cowboys can look at this scenario from a position of strength. Thomas is a local product that offers playmaking potential in the secondary.
#28 San Diego: Brandon Graham (DE, Michigan)
Graham is flexible enough to play in either the 4-3 or the 3-4. San Diego could use another pass rusher off the edge and Graham is par value here.
#29 New York Jets: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Jets own one of the standout cornerbacks in the NFL, but you can never have too much of a good thing. Alongside Rex Ryan's always competitive pass rush, the Jets would own a solid secondary.
#30 Minnesota: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
Clausen polarises opinion more than anyone else in this draft. If Washington, Seattle and Buffalo aren't convinced - what stops this kind of fall? A trade? I've voiced my reasons why I think Clausen might drop this low.
#31 Indianapolis: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
Watching tape of Missouri, I was never blown away by Weatherspoon. He put in an eye catching display at the Senior Bowl, however, and some teams will appreciate his athleticism and ability to start as a rookie.
#32 New Orleans: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
The Saints could use Kindle creatively, as a linebacker most of the time but an edge rush on passing third downs.
Second Round (Top ten)
#33 St. Louis - Damian Williams (WR, USC)
#34 Detroit - Jahvid Best (RB, California)
#35 Tampa Bay - Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
#36 Kansas City - Cam Thomas (DT, North Carolina)
#37 Washington - Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
#38 Cleveland - Eric Decker (WR, Minnesota)
#39 Oakland - Perrish Cox (CB, Oklahoma State)
#40 Seattle - Charles Brown (OT, USC)
#41 Buffalo - Rob Gronkowski (TE, Arizona)
#42 Tampa Bay - Aaron Hernandez (TE, Florida)
55 comments:
rob, you are over the place with your mocks. Wr at pick six? I don't get it. What about eric berry, joe haden. If you go offense there is a guy named cj spiller who is also a stud on special teams. Dez bryant? I hope not, i'd be pissed.
Yeah i gotta say, out of all the positions we need, WR (along with maybe LB) is of the least importance. I sincerely doubt we go for Bryant. Don't make this like your Crabtree prediction last year!
Rob, I can't complain with this mock. Not at all. I love how your mocks constantly change to different ideas instead of minor changes here and there. We're 2 months out from the real draft, I hate how people peg the draft as mostly decided already.
With Price and Brown and Bryant I'd feel pretty good. I don't think we have a viable NFL starting QB on this team, but if you don't think Clausen is the guy, then there's no sense in taking just because he's the best QB available. Sean Canfield, Tony Pike, LeFevour, Snead; one of them will be available in the 5th. And who knows, maybe Hasselbeck is so horrendous next year that we get Jake Locker in 2011.
I've had Seattle selecting a quarterback, offensive tackle, defensive end, running back and receiver at #6 in previous projections. The object of these early mocks are to look at numerous different possibilities, not to make any kind of specific judgement call in February. I'm not a huge Bryant fan, I'm not a huge Jimmy Clausen fan. Both have gone to Seattle in my mocks. I won't choose favorites.
I'll explain the pick in greater detail. For starters, the Seahawks have to decide if Jimmy Clausen is the future of the franchise. If he is - he's the pick at #6 in this scenario. No questions.
If they're not sold on Clausen, they'll look elsewhere. They could go defensive end (Morgan), cornerback (Hayden). I don't think the team will draft a safety at #6. Having $150m+ tied up at safety and linebacker isn't great value and I'm not convinced Berry is as good as some suggest (although admittedly, still a very good player - just not the other wordly type some have predicted).
The options at tackle aren't great in terms of scheme fit - you have to take the Gibbs appointment into consideration. I have added a second round which shows the Seahawks can pick up a guy like Charles Brown in round two.
I do think the new regime will really consider drafting a weapon on offense. I'm not making this pick for me - I'm sceptical about Bryant and need to see him at the combine in good condition after a year off. People I trust tell me he's better than I think, I'm going with them here.
Having said that, I can appreciate what Bryant does well. He can get downfield, he's good with the ball in his hands. He's been productive. He's a return threat. He has ideal size. He reminds me of T.O. a little bit. Receiver could be a huge need if Burleson doesn't re-sign and Branch moves on. You don't want your only weapon on offense to be a wideout in his 30's.
Getting an offensive boost, a defensive lineman and a left tackle in the first three picks would be a nice return and a good start for the new regime.
Hi Rob,
really like the site, think you're helping all of us 'hawks fans become more informed on all of the young players coming into the league. That being said, what bad team (and we can't kid ourselves, currently we are a bad team) has ever had success drafting a wr early. A wr is not the type of foundational player we need to build on with that valuable of a pick. Look at Detroit, even with Calvin Johnson being an incredible talent, (and Dez Bryant isn't even close to that level of wr)without a good team around him,Detroit still could not win consistently. With the 6th overall pick you have to take a player there that has positional value as well. My faith in the team's new management would be shattered if they took a wr that early with so many other positions that need an impact player. I would group them in with Millen & Davis for taking style over substance.
While the Bryant pick is up for debate, I can't really think of a much better way to spend the #14 and #40 picks. At #14 you'd have to choose between Price and Morgan. Personally I'd have a very difficult time passing on Morgan. There is way more DT depth in the draft than DE. DT is a bigger need, but Morgan could be elite and thats the type of players the Hawks need.
Charles Brwon at 40 couldn't get much better. He fills a huge need, would fit well into the system and has the potential of being passed up by alot of team due to size reasons, which wouldn't be an issue in Seattle. Downside is that if he gets into the 300lb mark, I think he'll fly up the draft boards.
I'd like to see the picks used on Haden (or Claussen if its QB), Morgan and Brown. That would be a great draft that fills 3 really important positions for the long term.
I understand that you're just fleshing out all different options in the early mock drafts. That said... BOOOO!! No WR at #6! That would be an enormous waste. I'm not saying we have the best WR in the league, but it is nowhere near our top need. If Branch is on the team on draft day, WR is a total non-need. If Branch goes, I think WR is need #7 or 8.
I love this draft. It helps by getting a play-maker, it provides the piece of the pass rushing puzzle we are missing (unleashing the wrath of Daryll Tapp), and protcts Hass.
This scenario may actually make us win the division.
Annonymous - thanks for the kind words. In fairness I fully expect Johnson to be an amazing success in years to come. Even on a woeful 0-16 team he was very productive. Last year, injuries and a rookie QB hurt his numbers. I think they'll look to bring in a playmaker with one of those picks - they need one on offense. If they are able to fill other holes elsewhere (DT, OT), I think it's more justified. We shouldn't under estimate the teams need for something on offense - it's not just a case of finding that left tackle, they need someone who can put points on the board and stop a defense being able to commit too much to attacking the QB/OL.
LawHawk - I think receiver is a much bigger need than that. Burleson is a free agent. Branch could be gone too. This team can't rely on Forsett/Jones at running back and Housh/Butler/Obomanu at receiver. They need some playmakers. Being able to get a DT and OT later helps the fact you invest a lot at a skill position early.
I haven't really bought the idea of a WR THAT high...but the thought of Dez is actually an exciting one to me.
Watch him play and he looks to have all the tools to be a great WR. Who gives a rip if he doesn't run the fastest 40....his football skills are amazing and his speed is still more than adequate.
Rob-I don't disagree that a playmaker is necessary for the offence, but a rookie wr(in this year's draft) won't touch the ball enough to be an impact player worth the 6th pick, just my opinion. I believe the greatest long term value of that type of pick is getting the highest paid positions in free agency; QB, CB, OL, DL, for their rookie contract price. Lesser paid positions are filled later in the draft & thru occasional free agent signings. I'm not a scout & could certainly be wrong, but I don't see a WR or RB that will be worth the 6th overall contract value & get enough touches to be more valuable long term than another position. I just keep thinking back to Bush/Williams a couple of years ago, who would we rather be giving the second contract to? Which would contribute more to the long term success of the franchise?
While I'm not excited about picking a WR with the 6th overall, I understand your reasoning for it. Do you think we could address the "explosive offensive playmaker" position later in the draft with Benn/Tate/etc or do you think there is a big drop-off?
I don't think , however, that Brown will drop all the way to #40 (unless he has a bad combine). I could see a few other ZBS teams scooping him up in the late first (including Indy or Houston) or early second (KC).
I know its too complicated to think about trades in these mocks, but what would you think about trading down from the 14th to try to pick up something in the 20s and grab Odrick/Brown/Thomas along with a 3rd or 4th?
Annonymous - Some very valid points. I tend to agree in general, but I think finding some kind of production from the skill position and a potential #1 receiver is an absolute must going forward. I wanted to portray that here. The Seahawks have spoken a lot about making the offense better and changing it. I think we'll see that at some stage via this draft. Expect big changes on offense. Getting a WR and an OT in the top three picks would be a start - they could add a RB later.
Ben - I think there's a chance Benn will go in the back end of round one so won't be available. Not a fan of Golden Tate - I think a lot of mocks have over rated his talents.
Brown could very easily go in round one with a good combine. However, I remember predicting that William Beatty would go in the back end of round one last year. He fell into round two - I think we could see a similar situation. Not many teams truly value the smaller lineman - I think Houston will try to add some bulk to their line and Indy seem capable of plugging anyone at tackle because Manning is too good.
I think the Seahawks will seriously entertain a move from #14 if they can get sufficient value. Having said that - Price warrants the pick.
why bryant over spiller? lets get a playmaker who can touch the ball-15-20 times a game.
My biggest concern with Bryant is his probable agent and potential holdout. I disregard the lying as no big deal, but the lack of playing time should hurt his stock as much as other injured players, as the result was the same. He is talented, and at 14 I could feel good about the pick, but not 6. I like the other two picks, but would rather trade down from 6 or 14 to pick up a 3rd rounder to use on a DT or RB.
Rob,
I agree that Price seems to be a good value at 14.
Another question: The Seahawks coaches have talked recently about their evaluations of several players (including Hasselbeck, Tapp and our two RBs) and their possible drafting strategies (that RBs can be found in later rounds). Do you think we can really take any of this talk at face value, or is it a combination of truth (Tapp might make a good elephant LB) and smokescreen (talking up Hasselbeck so they can trade him to Cleveland)? Can we try to figure out the new regime's draft strategy based on what they tell us or would it be just a wild goose chase?
Man, taking a WR over a QB at 6 is hard to believe. I think Bryant looks like an Anquan Boldin type, should be pretty good but making that picks outs this team on a drastically different course at Qb(and offense in general). The odds of starting a rookie(or Mike Teel) in 2011 go way up unless there's a decent free agent QB out there next year.
The choice of Price over Morgan is interesting. They're both need positions but Morgan is going to be touted as the #1 DE by most folks while Price is in the #3-#5 range amongst DT's.
But that said, it's not lost on me that the point of these mocks is taking a look at possible draft strategies.
I think we've learned that this approach will not be popular with most fans, at least the 6th pick. 14 and 40 are fine with me, but it seems unrealistic they would be dumb at 6 and smart at 14 and 40, ya'mean?
Ben, why on earth would we need to talk up Hasselbeck for a trade to Cleveland? The guy who knows him best on the entire planet (from a football perspective) is running the whole show in Cleveland.
Rob,
Like I said before the draft goes through ST. Louis. I really believe that their are only two picks viable for the Rams and that is Clausen and Suh. The thing for me s I really can't see the Rams paying a DT that kind of money so, I'm lead to believe that this will be the Year that they grab their Franchise QB and that will be Clausen. I like Dez but not at 6th he is not worth the value at that spot. I would love an explosive WR but I think that would not be a good pick at 6th. Also I don't think the Hawks will let Burleson walk, they need to cut dead weight Branch. the problem with Oakland's pick is really simple, only one rule applies here and that is Al Davis is the one picking. So we all need to wait till the combine is over and find the fastest time in the 40, and that will be who Davis picks.
I would be very excited to get Dez Bryant. I was definitely a Crabtree fan last year and I am no where near as high on Dez Bryant. But with that said, getting a true #1 reciever would do wonders for our team. He would absolutely make Houshmandzadeh better and give us an actual viable threat on offense. I'm not really very high on Burleson and although he did well this year, he's not a "pro bowl" caliber reciever. We need to get more players that opposing teams fear. I think I would rather have Eric Berry a #6, but getting Dez Bryant just makes a lot of sense. Also, didn't John Schneider mention that getting bigger recievers was a priority? How tall is Dez Bryant? I heard someone compare him to Andre Johnston and I mean come on, who wouldn't want someone like him?
I do have a question though, if we were going to use the #6 on Bryant, wouldn't possibly trying to trade for Brandon Marshall be an option? I know he's got the baggage, but he is definitely talented and man... the thought of adding him to our offense is very exciting. He would certainly fit the bill for #1 reciever and offensive threat.
Rob loves to call out WR for us..just look at his Crabtree posts last year. Prefer Spiller way more than Bryant.
Just suck royally for one more season which is highly likely and hope to get Jake Locker next year.
Having said that, I have zero confidence that this current staff will be able to develop a QB. And this is another reason why Holmgren will be missed even more than he already is...
I agree that Holmgren was the king of developing QBs, but I don't think we're looking at a big downgrade here. Three of the last four USC qb's went in the first, and we saw what Bates did with Cutler in Denver. I don't know about pulling a gem out of the second day, but bring in a Clausen/Bradford and they "should" do fine.
That said, if we pass on Clausen at 6 I will yell at my TV. If we pass at 14, foot goes through it. Between Burleson, Housh, Butler, and (assuming the line does anything) Carleson, we have a very good set of receivers. I wouldn't mind someone in the second/fourth (Benn looks like the only potential #1 to me, LaFell maybe), but drafting one at 6 makes about as much sense as another LB to me.
Three of the last four USC qb's went in the first
When Chow and later Sark was in charge of QBs at SC...Bates contributed nada into those three first rounders from SC.
we saw what Bates did with Cutler in Denver.
What exactly did Bates do with him? If he was so valuable why was he shipped off??? And how has he turned out exactly?
Everyone seems to be drinking the cool aid on this staff especially Bates but yall better wake up..he's had no experience being a OC other than last year at SC when he was the "Asst. Head Coach of the Offense".
I'll answer commentss from the bottom upwards:
Chavac - although this is just looking at one possibility, I think the Seahawks need a wideout more than some think. Housh is not a long term option, Burleson might not be here in 2010 (likewise Branch). An offense will not function with Housh/Butler/Obomanu at receiver.
Leiweke= - I have no favorites. I though Seattle would take Crabtree last year and it didn't happen. I'm not a huge Bryant fan, I just think this is a possibility to touted it in my latest projection.
Patrick - I think they'll look at what Denver want for Marshall. I think a team in the bottom half of the first will be able to offer a better deal than Seattle. It's a possibility, but owning two first round picks doesn't put the Seahawks in a great bargaining position.
Jon - if the Seahawks think Clausen is the answer long term, he's the pick at #6 in this scenario. No question. It dwarfs every other need. However, I've raised concerns about Clausen that I believe some teams (particularly those needing a QB) could share. It's an issue we'll look into with greater depth as the weeks go by.
Ben - it's tough to work out what this regime will do. We really need a draft or two to start talking about 'Carroll' guys the same way we talked about 'Ruskell' guys. I think there's absolutely no chance they'll trade Hasselbeck. Having said that, I think the talk of later round running backs and using existing roster guys in the elephant is quite possible.
myjackrebel - Alex Gibbs teams traditionally haven't drafted running backs early.
Impressive mock Rob. I disagree with those that say you are all over the place.
To me it represents flexibility in teams drafting strategies based on the changing "landscape" and player movement on draft boards.
There are so many variables when it comes to a teams draft, especially with a coaching and/or front office change.
I remember a few years ago when Miami's new coach got excited about a "potential" Devin Hester and drafted Ted Ginn Jr. I can easily see something like that happening with Chan Gailey's arrival in Buffalo.
I really respect the fact that you moved Derrick Morgan farther down even though you value him much higher. It shows that your mock is based on information and not preference.
I really really love what you are doing here. Keep up the good work Rob, Kyle and Kip! :)
Oh yea, love Eric Decker, that guy is legit and will make some team very happy.
Ivotuk - thankyou for the kind words. I'm a huge Derrick Morgan fan, I think he's a top ten pick. But as you say, I'm not so stubborn as yo recognise he might suffer a slight drop off. Likewise - I'm not a huge Jimmy Clausen fan, but I've had him paired with Seattle (and will do again in the future, more than likely). I'll never pick favorites - it's about trying to cover a series of eventualities and using that to begin a discussion. Will the Seahawks draft Dez Bryant? Possibly, not definitely. But whilst there's a chance, we might as well debate the merits. With three high picks in the top 40, it wouldn't surprise me if they want in this direction - getting a playmaker, a defensive lineman and a left tackle would make sense.
With regard to Decker - I've heard Cleveland's new GM Tom Heckart regularly went to Minnesota games to scout Decker personally and is a fan.
Dude, no way we take a WR. I could see us picking up another vet. WR to go with Nate, TJ, Brown. Also the Browns have Harrison at rb, remember him, the guy who had over 500 yds in 3 games last year. Their not drafting a RB 7 overall.
I don't like the WR pick either. I'd have my eye on Barnes from Bowling Green in the later rounds who is wholly underrated due to his lack of Al Davis speed. He has great hands though, and runs good routes. There's not much point in having a would-be track star at WR if by the time even the fastest WR gets downfield the QB is flat on his back.
If Iupati is still there at the start of the second round (which I doubt, I'd like to trade up to get him even if we have already taken a left tackle in Round 1.
I'd take any of Spiller, Haden, Campbell or Berry over Bryant without a second thought, and possibly some others if push came to shove.
Daunte Stallworth anyone?
Dave. Jerome Harrison is a restricted free agent so Cleveland may opt to let him go.
Dave - Harrison was also being asked to carry the ball 30-40 times in those games. That won't happen next year and the Browns won't go into a new season satisfied with the playmakers they have on offense. Harrison isn't enough. Tom Heckert more than anyone knows the benefit of drafting weapons early from his Eagles days. Putting Spiller on the field gives you a servicable back (Harrison) and an explosive back (Spiller).
I also believe receiver is a bigger need for this team than some think and that this will be determined too by the new regime. Right now, the only guarantees to return are Houshmandzadeh and Butler. This is an offense starved of playmaking ability. I'm not a huge Bryant fan, others are. But do not be surprised if this franchise goes that direction in round one. You cannot expect to get anywhere relying on Seattle's paltry playmakers. They aren't good enough. Carroll never had success at USC without guys who can't score points.
Timshorts - I like Barnes too, he might be a 6-7 round pick. However, the Seahawks need more than that on offense. I have them solving the LT issue, the D-line issue. They will absolutely solve the huge hole at playmaker too. That I'm sure of. Daunte Stallworth will struggle to get a contract and isn't the answer.
While I think P-P & Dunlap will fly up actual draft boards post-Combine, I doubt that that is the direction Tampa will go. They need a DT, plain & simple;if the Big Two are gone, I'd look for Berry, McClain, Bryant, or Haden here.They just paid a price for a TE; they won't go that route.Iuapati would be my choice, as you posit players' falling, rd. 2a, & maybe Demryious Thomas 2b.
Rob, love the variations on your mocks as it gets people talking about possible scenarios and directions the Hawks may take. I agree that we need play-makers on offense and would love to address it with our 3 early picks. Spiller with #6, Clausen at #14 and best available receiver at #40...DWilliams, Lafell, Tate, etc. May not all have great rookies years but could mature together to be a formidable group in a couple years. Give Gibbs the 4th rounder to find his sleeper zone blocking guy. Defense if a whole 'nother problem that could be addressed somewhat with using guys like Tapp and Curry more effectively, adding the UW d-lineman(his name escapes me) who is underrated late in the draft and signing Bodden at CB in free agency...just some thoughts
Mike - thanks for your input as always. The only reason I went Hernandez was because he's a good pass catcher and was better than the receiver options on the table. I guess Thomas at GT could be an alternative. Admittedly, TE would be a luxury alongside Winslow Jr.
Love your site and the different versions of mock drafts. Play makers on offense are definitely needed. How do restricted free agents work? I was just glancing at the list of receivers and trying to find guys that won't break the bank but still have potential and Malcolm Floyd really stands out - but he's a RFA and I don't fully understand what the Hawks would have to do to acquire him.
I have a couple of points of contention with this mock. Spiller to the Browns sounds way off. They have two play makers already in Cribbs and Jerome Harrison who finally got his opportunity and played big. If they take a back it will be a big one like Gerhart or Blount later in the draft.
Although I know that you don't like Okung, I really doubt he falls this far. If he does fall like this I believe it will be because most all of the tackles do also. He will not be the 5th tackle taken, maybe the 3rd but not the 5th.
The same goes for Eric Berry. People question his tackling but from what I've seen he seems to be a pretty decent tackler and the kid can flat out make plays.
The Jets taking a corner seems like a stretch too. They need offense and there will be some pretty good WRs sitting at 29.
Finally, Jimmy Clausen. There are too many teams that desperately need a QB for him to slip this far. Cleveland, Arizona, Cincy (Palmer is basically the same as Hasselbeck at this stage in his career), San Francisco, Denver, Buffalo, Oakland. One of these teams will draft Clausen if he doesn't go higher. His accuracy is just too good to be overlooked. I don't really like him because didn't really win, but all so often that doesn't matter in the draft.
Bill, good points, but look at Michael Oher. Last year he was the #1 tackle, then he slipped to the mid 20's and #4 overall for tackles. The same could happen to Okung.
As for Clausen, look at Aaron Rodgers or Brady Quinn. Both guys were in consideration for #1 overall, but slid to the 20's.
As for Cribbs, isn't his relationship on the fritz with Cleveland's management?
With Oher, I don't really remember him being considered the #1 overall tackle but he could have been.
When Rodgers got drafted there were not so many teams in need of a QB. I think it was expected that the 2nd QB in that draft would fall although no one expected it to be that far. Quinn was the guy who had the look of an NFL QB big with a strong arm but I don't think his accuracy was anywhere near Clausen's.
As for Cribbs, I saw him on an interview before the SuperBowl and he said that he felt much more confident he'd get a deal done with Cleveland after talking to Holmgren. The Browns will be an interesting team to watch next season with Holmgren there. They showed some fight down the stretch once Jamal Lewis was gone.
I could certainly be wrong on all of these statements but I really think that Okung and Clausen will both be top 15 picks.
Bill - for starters, Cribbs is a playmaker but largely as a return threat. Harrison, I wouldn't describe as a playmaker. They ran him 30-40 yards and he puts up some yards behind a very good offensive line. Cleveland absolutely need more than that on offense. It's not going to be enough. Tom Heckert was part of a Philadelphia organisation that regularly drafted a number of playmakers early (Jackson, Maclin, McCoy). They have a good line. They'll know getting a guy like Spiller will offer another weapon.
I think there's a chance Okung could fall like this. I just think he's very over rated. That said, some people seem to really like him. I have to appreciate that he could go earlier than this, and will portray that in future mocks. But I think there's an equal chance he falls into the 20's.
With regard to Berry, his tackling is a big issue for me. He always goes low, I don't like that. He isn't big so he probably feels like he has to, but it's led to a number of missed tackles. I can't have that in a top ten safety. He's a playmaker with the ball in his hands, but as we saw in 2009 - keep the ball out of his hands and he doesn't have much impact. Teams found a way to beat Tennessee whilst avoiding Berry this past season, that must be a concern for teams who don't have a good defense but might consider investing anything around $30-50m on a safety. Yes - he can be a playmaker. But there are weaknesses in his game that, for me, will keep him out of the top ten.
The Jets might go wide out. I spoke to someone who knows more about the Jets than me, and he felt a corner or safety would be a strong possibility. They have an excellent pass rush and front. Rex Ryan will always get his defense to create pressure. To add an unbeatable secondary into the mix too makes a real force on defense, and Ryan is a big defensive guy. They've invested in a wide out (Braylon Edwards and a running back (Shonn Greene). They have a decent offensive line and a franchise QB. I'm not sure they'll go offense in round one.
I disagree about those teams needing a QB. There's no way Arizona drafts Clausen in round one. It would totally undermine Leinart and make him essentially a 'lame duck' this year - a year when he will get a chance to stake his claim. They might draft a QB in 2011 if Leinart doesn't work out, but it's just not going to happen this year. They won't draft another rookie QB in round one. I think Cincy feel better about Palmer than you suggest - he got them a division title in 2009 from nowhere. Buffalo I explain in the mock - doesn't seem like a Chan Gailey guy. Denver might be a possibility unless they extend Orton (which I expect they will) and McDaniels again doesn't seem like a guy that would entertain a character like Clausen and comes from a NE system that works on QB's in the later rounds. He hasn't got the physical tools to interest Al Davis and Oakland. San Francisco have adapted to fit Alex Smith and it worked at some points last year, I'll think they'll run with that in 2010. Again - does Mike Singletary draft a guy like Clausen? Not sure.
I still think his most likely landing spots are St. Louis, Washington or Seattle. If he gets past those three, he can fall. We've seen it before - Brady Quinn, Aaron Rodgers.
Finally - Michael Oher was considered a potential #1 pick for a large part of last year. He never dropped too far in mock drafts - the latest he was falling was the back end of the top ten and early teens. Most people thought he was a top ten shoe in. When he fell it was a big shock - I think Okung might encounter similar issues but for different reasons.
browns have no d backfield, no right side of o line. And you have them taking a rb and a wr with first 2 picks. makes no sense at all
The Browns need Anthony Davis from
Rutgers. They need OT on the right side. Davis is big and strong and moves well. Dez Bryant would work well in Miami if they don't sign TO. Buffalo needs Joe Haden. Rolando mcCalin isn't good enough for the 5th pick. I see him going to Denver. I wouldn't be surprised if Pete Carrol at pcik 14 takes his safety Taylor Msys. Mays is big and fast. The Falcons need pass rush. A DE would be best for Atlanta, a guy like Rick Sapp, who plays LB but can play DE. The Cowboys need to keep protecting Tony romo. They are balanced on defense, but i see them takin gMike Iupati, OG from Idaho or Charles Brown from USC, Brown deserves to be a 1st round pick. Jahvid Best, i think will be drafted by the Chargers. He would be a perfect match with Sproles. LT is out of San Diego, Best could be the future of this team. He's fast like lightning and small so he can gwet behind big tackles and then take off and no one will catch him. Brandon LaFell, who proved himself in the Capitol 1 bowl game, i think is a first round pick. The Jets i think are a team that could use a WR. They have a great defense and a great running game, and Sanchez who matured a lot. Dan Williams, DT from Tennessee is one of the most underated players in this draft. I think he goes to the Ravens late in the 1st round, but San Francisco could use a nose tackle.
Suh is more explosive then McCoy. The Rams need something to get them going, i think Suh could do that. Suh goes to St.Louis and McCoy doesn't go until the Seahawks at pick 6. Eric Berry, the best safety in this class goes to Tampa Bay. He is a top 5 pick player. The Jaguars i think need a RB. Spiller could be available at pick 10. They need a RB so they can get some pressure off of Jones-Drew. Derrick Morgan, DE from georgia Tech goes either to Kansas City or Oakland. Oakland needs a pass rusher. The Giants need a LB and a DE. Sergio Kindle from Texas is that guy. The Eagles who need help in the secondary, could get a player like Earl thomas from Texas. Sean Jones isn't getting the job done at Strong safety. Nate allen, free safety from South Florida, could be a guy for Philly if Thomas isn't available. Russell Okung, goes top 5 to the Lions. In order for the Lions to establish a solid running game they need a guy like Okung to make room. Arizona i think takes Clausen from notre Dame. Do they trust Matt Leinart. I wouldn't. Jimmy Clausen has a big arm and is crisp with his passes. The Vikings also need a QB. Is Tim Tebow their guy? Colt McCoy? Tony Pike? If i were the Vikings, i would take Tebow. McCoy isnt strong enough. Pike has not grown into his body. He's a little inconsisent with his passes. Tebow is very strong, he has the body of a fullback or linebacker. Tebow can run and he will improve on his arm. Give him time, he's a winner.
Annonymous - the Browns also have absolutely nothing offensively to scare teams. They already own one of the best young left tackles, a good left guard and a center who I'm a huge fan of (another first round pick). There's no need to spend another first round pick on that line, you can find a solid RG or RT later. You can't find someone as explosive as C.J. Spiller and as I've said before - Mike Holmgren and Tom Heckert are running the show in Cleveland - two guys who know what offense can get you. Put some playmakers behind that line and they'll have success and take pressure away from Brady Quinn or whoever else is the QB.
Annonymous - the Cardinals won't take Clausen. The simple fact is, they're going to give him a year to stake his claim to be the long term answer. Drafting a first round QB essentially makes him a lame duck - they'd have to start Clausen immediately instead because Leinart would be in an impossible situation. Arizona might draft a QB in 2011 or later on in this draft, but there's absolutely no way they'll draft Jimmy Clausen.
I like;
#6-BERRY
#14-BROWN,trade down a few slots
#40-LeFevour,may go to Rams at #33
next pick-DT
I would be very surprised if LeFevour went that early. It'd be a huge reach - he's a massive project.
The Vikings, what a story. Will Favre return? Is Jackson their QB? Jackson needs to not be the Vikings QB. Is Favre returns, the Vikings could easily make another run ofr the Super Bowl. Chester Taylor and Ray Edwards are botrh free agents, they need to sign one of them. If Favre retires, they NEED to trade for McCnabb. Jimmy Clausen won't be available at pick 30. He might go to the Bills at pick 9. If Favre reuturns and they re-sign Chester Taylor but not Ray Edwards, they need to select a defensive end in the draft. Everson Griffin from USC might be available at pick 30. If they re-sign Edwards but not Taylor they need to get a RB to support Peterson like Taylor did very well. Jon Dwyer from Georgia Tech could be a possibility. Joe McKnight from USC? Im sure the Vikings are hoping that Favre comes back and they are able to bring back Taylor and Edwards.
I appreciate the reply Rob. It's cool that you follow up with the comments. Now, back to the debate...
Cleveland does need a play maker on offense but I don't think they take one over Berry or Haden. I also think that they look for a play making WR as opposed to RB. Cribbs destroyed Pittsburgh running the wildcat and once they stopped trying to make Cribbs a WR toward the end of the year he was making a difference on offense. Can Harrison handle 35 touches a game, probably not but he's way under rated IMO.
For Clausen, Arizona most likely does not draft a QB but that all depends on how confident they are in Leinart. Cleveland took Quinn with D. Anderson only one year removed from the Pro Bowl. As for Denver, Clausen comes into the league with Charlie Weis' blessing which makes me think that he could be just the type of QB Denver would like to have as Weis' system should fall in line with McDaniels'.
For Oher, you are probably right. But I feel like he was being projected as the 4th or 5th OT right before the draft maybe due to his Wonderlic scores? Maybe between now and April Okung will be exposed at the combine or for the reasons you have mentioned. It just seems doubtful considering every other mock I've seen has him as the #1 tackle in the draft.
I like this mock though, it has people talking and with months until the draft what else do we have to do?
Davis is already moving ahead of Okung. Baluga is moving up too.
I think that PC will go
#6- Clausen
#14- Spiller
#40- Brown or best LT avail.
If this is the way it goes- I'll be peeing my pants on draft day
ShockHawk
Annonymous - the Vikings are drafting from a position of strength and I do think Favre will return. However, in this mock I wanted to show what could happen with Clausen. If he fell as far as this - absolutely a team picking early in round two would trade up. I don't include trades in my mock, but he likely wouldn't make it to Minnesota for that reason.
I maintain that I don't think Chan Gailey will draft Clausen. Just doesn't seem like a fit to me. I think they could take Thigpen, not necessarily a long term option but Gailey likes him and they worked well in KC. I think Clausen's most likely fit early is with St. Louis, Washington or Seattle. Bills could go Davis or Bulaga.
Bill - the Browns took Quinn and then started Frye. After a game, Frye was benched and went to Seattle. Anderson came in because they didn't want to start a rookie Quinn and ended up going to the Pro Bowl. They didn't draft Quinn after Anderson's pro-bowl year. That whole situation was a mess - they should've tried to deal Anderson when they had the chance after his one year wonder. I don't think Holmgren will draft Clausen with two expensive QB's on the roster. If they make moves it becomes more likely. I think they're more likely to run with Quinn this year, draft a QB later on (v. Holmgren) and find some weapons. Cleveland could take Haden, but I expect a very offensive minded draft. Harrison for me is just a cog in the wheel, he's not someone to rely on long term.
Arizona would be clinically insane to draft a QB the year they hand Leinart the starting role. It won't happen. 100% sure of that.
I think people are becoming wise to Okung. All I read a couple of months ago was how 'dominant' he was and he was a closed book top ten pick. Kiper dropped him down his big board this week, McShay's starting to talk about not being as dominant as they thought. People are getting wiser, they're watching the tape. Okung is hugely over rated.
Biggest problem on team is the offence wont let the defence catch there breath. They need to control some clock. I would go
#6 Davis
#14 Baluga
#40 Dwyer
Let the d-line gel for a year Pick up dbacks in bulk with later rounds. Love Clausen but the O-line and lack of threat from the run is a death sentance for QBs. Man would it be nice to punch people in the mouth with a run game again. I'm not a fan of 1st round FS I consider Laron Landry a bust so I dont see high round value at safty.
If Clausen falls the Vikings that would be the steal of the draft by far. No way he drops that far, Brady Quinn made it to what, #22 and Clausen is much better than he was as a prospect. Im sure the Viking fans would be ecstatic because they will have two franchise players for the next ten years with Peterson and Clausen, not to mention that Clausen will be playing in a dome.
Brady Quinn went at #22 becaue the Browns made a huge trade. Without doubt if Clausen fell as far as projected here, I could see a similar big trade that ultimately would keep him in the 20's too. Clausen could fall, but he could also go #1. No easy answer right now.
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