The combine begins tomorrow so this is my final projected mock draft before the event takes place. We can debate the merits of work outs and how much you can truly learn from watching a guy perform in shorts - but prospects can undoubtedly boost or hinder their stock in Indianapolis. Draft boards will begin to take shape as we move towards the various pro-days. Whatever anyone says - this is hugely important date on the NFL calendar, it's fascinating and teams rightly value this opportunity to compare prospects physically and do their homework through interviews and socialising.
Speculation continues to suggest St. Louis will look to acquire a quarterback before the draft, allowing them to potentially select Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy first overall. It's still largely unclear what direction the Rams will go under new ownership. One thing is for sure though - St. Louis must find a new quarterback. Spending a fortune on another defensive lineman, however good Suh/McCoy could be, will not help the Rams turn the page on a record that reads six wins in three years and no winning seasons since 2003. Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL and having passed on Matt Ryan (to select Chris Long) and Mark Sanchez (to select Jason Smith), the Rams will be wary of strike three.
Round One
#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
The Rams have to bring in a quarterback this off season who can take this team forward. Six wins in three years isn't good enough for this franchise and another expensive lineman won't take this team to the next plateau. They have a decent offensive line, they have a very good running back. Time to get a franchise QB.
#2 Detroit: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
McCoy gets the nod here simply because he's quicker and more disruptive up the middle. Detroit would have a tough decision to make with both Suh and McCoy on the board.
#3 Tampa Bay: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
If the Rams take a quarterback, it appears likely the top two defensive tackles will go #2 and #3. The Buccs' defensive line needs the kind of jolt someone like Suh could bring.
#4 Washington: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
The 'Skins have to find a long term franchise quarterback. Drafting Clausen offers the best possible opportunity to turn a new page in 2010 and not need to witness a lame duck season from Jason Campbell.
#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
Don't be swayed by recent negative reviews of McClain in some quarters. It's not like Tyson Jackson was getting a top five grade this time last year. The Chiefs are committed to creating a strong 3-4 defense but lack that presence at inside linebacker. McClain can be an impact player for Kansas City.
#6 Seattle: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
The Seahawks have to get younger (and better) at the games premium positions. With the top two quarterbacks off the board, they could look at offensive lineman, pass rushers and playmakers. Davis isn't an obvious fit for the Alex Gibbs' zone system, but he has Ryan Clady-type potential and good coaching could make him a dominant force.
#7 Cleveland: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
The Browns could fight the board and go offense with both Dez Bryant and C.J. Spiller available, but Haden is the best cornerback in this class and fills a need.
#8 Oakland: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
We know how Al Davis' drafts. The three prospects to keep an eye on - JPP, Bruce Campbell and Taylor Mays. All expected to run fast time at the combine and flash the physical qualities Davis looks for.
#9 Buffalo: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
The Bills need to improve their offensive line. Bulaga will interest teams as a left tackle, but like Jake Long he could be an all-pro on the right hand side.
#10 Jacksonville: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
I expect the Jaguars to explore every trade avenue possible to move down. If they can't move away from this spot - Berry makes sense as Jacksonville are looking to rebuild their secondary.
#11 Denver: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
Dunalp's size makes him a perfect option at five technique end in the Broncos 3-4.
#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
Williams' ability to play the coveted 3-4 nose tackle position will make him a desirable pick for teams using the scheme.
#13 San Francisco: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
The 49ers will consider drafting a right tackle to compliment Joe Staley on the left hand side.
#14 Seattle: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
The Seahawks need playmakers. Nate Burleson is a free agent and Deion Branch may not be with the team much longer. Houshmandzadeh, Butler and Obomanu won't cut it alone. Bryant is capable of being a force in the NFL.
#15 New York Giants: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
Morgan has great potential, but amongst the cluster of 3-4 teams and alternative picks - he might suffer a slight fall on draft day. This would be a perfect fit for both prospect and team.
#16 San Francisco: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
Would the 49ers use Thomas as a cornerback or a safety? His long term future may be at corner, but he's a much needed playmaker in the secondary.
#17 Tennessee: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
The Titans are another team who will likely look to upgrade their defensive line. Price is a penetrative interior force.
#18 Pittsburgh: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
This is one of the few places Mays could go and have a real impact. Playing behind a good pass rushing defense, Mays and fellow Trojan Troy Polamalu could create the most intimidating secondary combo in the NFL.
#19 Atlanta: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
What price a trade with Jacksonville to take Joe Haden? Jackson's stock will rise after the combine and he could go higher than this.
#20 Houston: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
If Spiller runs a super-quick forty yard dash, he could be a top ten pick. Alternatively, teams are wary of spending high picks at the running back position so he might suffer a slight fall.
#21 Cincinnati: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
Bad quarterback play and inconsistent hands has hurt Benn's stock, but this is still a guy touted as a top 15 pick at the start of the year. A tight end like Jermaine Gresham is also a possibility.
#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.
#23 Green Bay: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
Kyle Rota's scouting report on Okung is an absolute must read and highlights some of the reasons why Okung might not be a top ten lock. He would've been a late first round pick as an underclassmen, nothing this year has proved otherwise in my opinion.
#24 Philadelphia: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Eagles need a better pass rush, that was evident in their playoff defeat at Dallas. Griffen's stock is difficult to project, he could rise up the boards with an impressive combine.
#25 Baltimore: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
McCourty is one of a handful of cornerbacks who could really boost their stock in Indianapolis.
#26 Arizona: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
Brown could go a lot higher than this if he shows up at the combine above 300lbs and puts on a show.
#27 Dallas: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Cowboys would like to add a playmaker to their secondary. Wilson would also double up as a return specialist.
#28 San Diego: Brandon Graham (DE, Michigan)
Graham is flexible enough to play in either the 4-3 or the 3-4. San Diego could use another pass rusher off the edge and Graham is par value here.
#29 New York Jets: Dominique Franks (CB, Oklahoma)
Rex Ryan loves adding to his secondary. The Jets have a consistent pass rush and collecting talented defensive backs will make New York very difficult to beat.
#30 Minnesota: Lamarr Houston (DT, Texas)
Disruptive interior presence who is capable of collapsing the pocket. This could be an area of need for the Vikings soon.
#31 Indianapolis: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
Watching tape of Missouri, I was never blown away by Weatherspoon. He put in an eye catching display at the Senior Bowl, however, and some teams will appreciate his athleticism and ability to start as a rookie.
#32 New Orleans: Sergio Kindle (LB, Texas)
The Saints could use Kindle creatively, as a linebacker most of the time but an edge rush on passing third downs.
Round Two
#33 St. Louis: Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
Having found their franchise quarterback in round one, the Rams find a potential #1 receiver.
#34 Detroit: Anthony Dixon (RB, Miss State)
The Lions will look to add a running back regardless of Kevin Smith's recovery. Dixon is pure power.
#35 Tampa Bay: Mike Williams (WR, Syracuse)
This would be a huge gamble due to Williams' character concerns, but his talent warrants a selection this high.
#36 Kansas City: Cam Thomas (DT, North Carolina)
The Chiefs continue their commitment towards building a strong 3-4 defense by finding a nose tackle.
#37 Washington: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
The Redskins need to add to their offensive line in free agency or the draft.
#38 Cleveland: Eric Decker (WR, Minnesota)
Browns GM Tom Heckert watched Decker personally on a few occasions in 2009. Coming from Philly, he understands the true value of having playmakers on offense.
#39 Oakland: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Al Davis loves to draft defensive backs. He also loves to draft guys who run fast forty yard dash times. Robinson fits the criteria.
#40 Seattle: Chad Jones (S, LSU)
The Seahawks target a presence in the secondary like Jones, who has a great combination of size and speed.
#41 Buffalo: Rob Gronkowski (TE, Arizona)
Chan Gailey needs a good blocking tight end for his offense.
#42 Tampa Bay: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Thomas' injury could push him down draft boards, but if he recovers in time he'd offer a big target for Josh Freeman.
#43 Miami: Brandon Spikes (LB, Florida)
The Dolphins need an inside presence.
#44 New England: Alex Carrington (DE, Arkansas State)
Having accumulated second round picks, the Pats continue to add to their defensive line.
#45 Denver: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
The Broncos need a center and Pouncey is par value.
#46 New York Giants: Jahvid Best (RB, California)
Not a huge need for NYG, but the Giants would be able to control Best's touches and get the best out of him in a three-pronged rushing attack.
#47 New England: Aaron Hernandez (TE, Florida)
Tom Brady would love throwing to Hernandez.
#48 Carolina: Damian Williams (WR, USC)
The Panthers go for value and take the under rated Williams.
#49 San Francisco: Jerry Hughes (DE, TCU)
Hughes did a great job for TCU in 2009, but opinion is mixed on his pro-prospects.
#50 Kansas City: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Two knee injuries could concern teams enough to force Gresham into round two. He has clear first round talent, though.
#51 Houston: Jerome Murphy (CB, USF)
The Texans will consider adding to their secondary if they go offense in round one.
#52 Pittsburgh: Perrish Cox (CB, Oklahoma State)
The Steelers might look to add a cornerback and Cox is worth the 52nd overall pick.
#53 New England: Ricky Sapp (LB, Clemson)
I like Sapp enough to put him in round one, but he's a difficult prospect to judge in terms of how teams would use him.
#54 Cincinnati: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
Iupati's agility and size gives him first round potential. However, he still struggles with leverage and this could keep him in round two.
#55 Philadelphia: Nate Allen (S, Georgia Tech)
The Eagles need a safety, although this might be half a round too early for Allen.
#56 Green Bay: Donovan Warren (CB, Michigan)
Warren's stock is mixed. Some rank him as a first round pick.
#57 Baltimore: Mardy Gilyard (WR, Cincinnati)
The Ravens' have a number of options at receiver this off season but if they reach the draft having not made a move, I think they'd consider a prospect like Gilyard.
#58 Arizona: Jason Worilds (DE, Virginia Tech)
The Cardinals, looking to continue improving their defense, consider Worilds as a pass rushing outside threat.
#59 Dallas: Jordan Shipley (WR, Texas)
Pure Jerry Jones style pick.
#60 San Diego: Joe McKnight (RB, USC)
McKnight is my third favorite running back in this class. I have teams passing on Dwyer and Matthews, although Dwyer has lost weight and can improve his stock substantially by running well at the combine.
#61 New York Jets: Corey Wootton (DE, Northwestern)
Wootton's ability to play five technique end will appeal to the Jets.
#62 Minnesota: Brett Ghee (CB, Wake Forest)
The Vikings add to their secondary after spending their first pick on the defensive line.
#63 Indianapolis: Tsyon Alualu (DE, California)
Alualu is capable of playing off the edge or in the interior.
#64 New Orleans - Golden Tate (WR, Notre Dame)
I don't buy talk of Tate going in round one or even the early second round.
57 comments:
Once again I will say that I would love to see Dez playing for the Hawks!
I don't understand why you writers/experts think that PC and Gibbs will draft Offensive players when Gibbs hasn't taken any offensive players, above #20, in YEARS. He likes to get his players in the 2-7 and later. I can't see them letting Berry or Hayden by and choosing a player that they really don't NEED. There are a lot of WRs, and OTs to be had in the first 15 picks. They don't need to draft a potential bust at 6 or a the 'top' WR at 14. Gibbs will get these guys later (maybe he will draft an OL, but, at 14, not sooner. JMHO. I follow the procedure of Gibbs getting his players and this is how he works. I won't be surprised if 2 out of the first 3 are defensive players.
Rob i love the top 6 picks but I just have to think that Pete and co. are going to want to get QB on the bench as soon as possible while they squeeze out #8's last few years. Yes i said few years. I think if we can pull together a decent O-line i dont think theres any reason matt couldnt have a couple excellent years left. i mean look at what kurt warner did in Arizona given he had some okay wide recievers(sarcasm), and a decent line. But anyways what do you think about the hawks maybe trying to drop down from the 14 pick and pick up a sliding Tim Tebow to be are shiny new signal caller. and maybe accrue a 2nd or 3rd round pick that we'd all love. i realize there are so many possiblities to consider but if the hawks were to grab tebow around the twentys or even clausen/bradford at six. where do you see there other picks going?
Mike Upati drops to the 3rd round or was that an oversight? (or did I miss it)
Davis seems like a reach at 6. Especially when you consider that Schneider comes from programs that seem to value the BPA more then they do filling needs. It is interesting that you have them taking a tackle not named Okung. I'll have to read that article you posted. I think if the first 5 goes this way then the Seahawks go with Berry.
Iupati goes at #54 to the Bengals. Just wanted to offer an alternative angle on that one because although he has big upside, he's still a project and very raw and a pure guard - a position that doesn't usually go early.
Annonymous - Just because a team owning Alex Gibbs hasn't drafted offense in the past doesn't mean it won't happen in Seattle. Situations are different, and the Seahawks' biggest needs appear on offense. Spending $50m on a safety like Berry would be a complete luxury when the team hasn't got a long term option at QB, hasn't got a legitimate LT, no playmakers and no pass rush. Even an Alex Gibbs offense will appreciate that.
Gibbs will no doubt offer his input and I, like everyone else, have to acknowledge that he hasn't drafted a lot of lineman early. However, if this team wants to compete they might need to find a left tackle now. If they truly believe Davis is as good as some reports this week suggested, you have to consider taking that blind side tackle instead of a defensive back.
I appreciate that the Seahawks could take Haden - or Berry for that matter. I think Haden's more likely. However, the situation on offense is so critical right now.
The Seahawks are also approaching the time when they need to introduce a new quarterback. Both are off the board here. You can't ask a rookie to come into an offense that has no weapons and a bad offensive line. You'd be creating the right platform to bring someone in, more than likely in 2011.
If the QBs are off the board by #6, i imagine the Hawks do everything in their power to trade back a bit.
I agree that the BPA in this mock at #6 is Berry, but I just can't warrant paying #6 money to Safety. (even one as good a Berry). Of course with the richest owner in the league and uncertainty with the cap situation going forward, who knows. Maybe Allen goes on a spending spree.
At #14 I don't know enough about Bryant to have an opinion one way or another. Is he really a Fitz/Johnson type talent? Or, is he just the best receiver in this class? I just don't see WR as big of a need as DE or LT. I would scenario, I'd probably want to go with Morgan at this point and go LT at #40
-=cysco
Let me also qualify the absence of some of the bigger names.
Tim Tebow - wouldn't surprise me if Jacksonville traded down and took him in R1 or R2 if they can acquire a pick there. However, this mock doesn't include trades and I couldn't find an alternative landing spot in the first 64 picks.
Jonathan Dwyer - I have big concerns about Dwyer's pro prospects. I've seen nothing from him that suggests he warrants consideration in the first two rounds. I graded him in the third round. Reports say he's lost around 17lbs - which he needed to do. If that's the case, and he runs well, all the talk of him going in the top two rounds will hold greater weight.
Terrance Cody - Not as dominant as some think. Huge struggles with his weight during his young career. Only really a two down player. He'll be an expensive gamble. I appreciate the importance of NT in the 3-4, but Cody seems like a third round prospect at best for me.
Cysco - Berry's tackling bothers me. Clearly he's a playmaker in the secondary, but I've voiced concerns about other areas of his game. I think he can be a very productive playmaker, but it has to be on the right team. Seattle aren't good enough up front right now to feel the real benefit of a guy like Berry. I would be surprised if the 'Hawks added a $50m investment at safety to go with a $100m+ investment at linebacker when the d-line, o-line, QB situation and a lack of playmakers remains prevelant.
Bryant reminds me more of T.O. from a playing P.O.V. He's capable of getting downfield without owning that elite burst, but he is a deep threat. He gets open, he's physical. He needs coverage and that will draw pressure away from the o-line.
If that is how the Top 5 playout, I think the Hawks could be in a very good position to auction of the #6 to the highest bidder for Berry. I think you could see Oakland, Denver, NY Giants, Atlanta and Houston all interested. I know Houston really needs a safety and they are the type of team that could feel that they are in position where a playmaker like berry could put them over the top and into the playoffs. Its possible to trade the #6 for the #20, #51 and a later pick.
Instead of taking Davis you'd be able to get Charles Brown at 20 and a G like Iupati or RB like McKnight.
I really hope Berry is availible at #6 and that there is a good market for the Hawks to trade the pick.
I think the Seahawks will struggle to trade the #6 pick. Teams would also have to be absolutely convinced that the guy they want a.) warrants a $50m contract and b.) is going to be snapped up by Cleveland at #7.
The top 4 going DTx2, QBx2 is what I would consider to be a worst case scenario right now (I don't really factor in KC's pick because for the most part they are shopping for 3-4 players and OT's I don't want). It leaves us without an obvious choice at #6, and at that juncture, I'd trade down, even on the cheap.
I have a little bit of a hard time seeing Cleveland, Denver, and Miami all passing on Dez Bryant. Cleveland is desperate for WR and Holmgren has not been shy about drafting WR high in the past (also, I can't see them passing on Williams in the 2nd, Williams screams Holmgren WR). Denver might have dealt Marshall by then. And Miami needs a #1 WR and has been frequently linked to Bryant. It could happen, but probably only if his stock dips a little bit from his unspectacular measurables. His combine will be critical.
I don't know if I like these choices for Seattle, to be totally honest (I do think they are realistic though).
If we still had Solari, I wouldn't touch Davis with a 10 foot pole. Its only because of Gibbs reputation as a hardass and genius coach that we might be able to make Davis work for a system that he appears to be supremely ill-suited for.
Dez Bryant is good value at #14, but unless we draft Tebow or Snead this year or Locker in 2011, I don't think he'll ever amount to anything special here. He looks really ordinary to me, except for his deep, over the shoulder ball catching ability. That's not something Hasselbeck can take advantage of and neither of Bradford/Clausen are particular deep threat QB's.
I don't have an opinion of Jones, but taking a safety makes sense. I wouldn't pass on Iupati, Warren, Best, or D. Williams to do it though (yes, I'd take Williams even if we already took Bryant, because he'd be best as a #2 or #3 anyway).
Overall, I think this was the most entertaining mock so far. I really enjoyed it.
Rob, This is your best Mock yet. However, when do you believe we will draft a QB. Also with this draft scenario we did not draft a D lineman in this deep D line class. What do you think about drafting Tebow at 40. He will have a year to work on his technique and learn under Matt. Tebow has avery good work ethic and can improve his technique and accuracy with a lil time.
6. Anthony davis
14. Dez Bryant
40. Tim Tebow
4th D Line
Lenny - I cant see Seattle drafting Tebow. Pete Carroll avoided the spread offense as a college coach, I don't think his QB for the future in Seattle will come from within that system.
Hey Rob!
Thanks for running this awesome blog as always. I don't if it was already adressed but what do you think of when you are comparing Taylor Mays and Chad Jones? Who's better in coverage or instincts?
THanks!
-Taylor
The Redskins have no interest in Clausen. And while they are definitely interested in Bradford, it's no guarantee they'd take him. But mark it down, the Redskins will not take Clausen.
Nick N.
Is this a typo Rob?
"Browns GM Tom Heckert watched Decker personally on a few occasions in 2009. Coming from Philly, he understands the true value of having playmakers on offense."
Is there a source for the suggestion that Washington have no interest in Clausen, Nick?
Taylor - thanks for the kind words. I think you can favorably compare Jones and Mays. Both are big, hit hard and are tremendously athletic. Mays has the edge when it comes to speed but they both encounter similar issues in coverage. I think Jones' instincts are a step quicker than Mays. If Jones performs well at the combine, he could sneak into round one.
Loved the mock as always. I wonder if Joe Haden is the guy that teams might move up for (knowing that he'll be gone at #7). Atlanta at #19 seems like a good fit.
Hi Rob, the "insiders" at ExtremeSkins have discussed it. There is definitely interest in Bradford, but not Clausen. These "insiders" do have access to the team and have been right before (for example, TK called knew about Shanahan 10 months ago).
Nick N.
Love the Chad Jones pick at 40, Rob!
I like the fact that Jones started a few games at DB as freshman on the LSU National Champ team and at 234lbs, can lay the wood.
Great athlete who also won a College World Series title with LSU (LH relief pitcher).
Not a ballhawk with only 5 ints and 15 pass defended, but a solid upgrade at SS.
I've heard some comparisons to Brian Dawkins. That sounds very appealing (if true).
Fair enough, Nick. I've visited that board but hadn't read anything along those lines. It's something to consider for the next projection, which will appear after the combine.
Poster said...
Anonymous: Alex Gibbs isn't running this draft. Your post is beyond stupid.
That is correct, Poster. It is beyond stupid because you can't equate it with what I said. That leaves you in the twilight Zone. Thanks for your opinion.
Rob, I stated this at the end of my rant.
'I won't be surprised if 2 out of the first 3 are defensive players.'
This means that I think (and hope) that they take an OT, and I prefer Bulaga, as he has played LT for 4 years in the ZBS. He is ready to play now. I just disagree that there are any LTs worthy of pick 6. So, your answer doesn't mean much, as I already left a spot for a LT. Now, Let PC and Gibbs do their thing on Offense, please. And I read this blog at least once a day too. It is not that you and others don't have a grip on this draft and who you want, but, if you ask people who they want at 6, you will get about 10 different answers, at least, I think.
Kip, you started out trading down. Rob just said that this is a non-trade down mock. I can whip up about 30 trade down scenerios, that could be likely. (maybe a couple less).
This draft is full of defensive players and to pick up a couple of Offensive players we need to do it right. Gibbs is the Oline guru and PC did not get him (JMHO) without saying he got his input. Best believe that Gibbs has got his list also. PC or the FO does not like a player, they will just tell him and he goes on. There may not be another Fitz in this draft, or even a Boldquin, but, there are plenty of RBs, and WRs, that can make it in the NFL. IMHO. Ok, you people are probably mad at me already, so, I will stop. These are JMHOs.
Rob
Were you going to be having some pod casts this year? I remember last year you had one and I really enjoyed listening to it.
Thanks
Funnily enough, Matt McGuire of walterfootball.com just posted (yesterday I think) a big article on how there's no way the Skins will pass on Clausen
There will be a podcast very soon, it's being worked on. Stay tuned...
Thanks for the great mock Rob.
I think some of these guys are riding the hype wave and will fall into the trough when draft time comes. Berry and JPP come to mind. If Berry has tackling problems then that ought to be a major ding. I believe Kip described JPP as something like a high school prospect.
Others are riding high by default, ot's and qb'come to mind. A weak class for both.
Undoubtedly things will change. Thats entertainment!
This is what I'm talking about, baby!
Check this out: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/351001-mike-iupati-the-new-steve-hutchinson
6. Anthony Davis or best LT available
14. Dez Bryant or best D Lineman if Bryant is gone.
40. D lineman or Best WR available if we acquire D line at pick14.
3rd via Trade DB
4th RB Lagerrette Blount
5th O line
ChavaC Yes, I saw that. But other than "new regimes means new QBs," it's not really substantive. More of a "Snyder likes big names" type of article. These guys at ExtremeSkins have been wrong before: for example, they thought that Doug Williams was coming to our front office, but they are quite adamant about the lack of interest with Clausen. What I am most concerned about as a Redskins fan is that the front office might desire to move up to get Bradford. I'd rather stick with Campbell.
Nick N.
I don't see the Cowboys going CB in the first round. They have two excellent CBs now. They do need a playmaker in the secondary, but at safety. Having said that, I think based upon who's left in your Mock, Campbell and Iupati make a lot of sense because of their size and what the Cowboys like on their line. And I'd throw in Chad Jones too.
Nick N.
So if Bradford's not there at 4, I suspect the Redskins will look hard at trading down. If that's not possible, I'll throw out a name no one is linking with the Redskins. CJ Spiller.
(Sorry about the three responses.)
Nick N.- Tip of the cap. Interesting info.
Anon- Yeah, I reread my comment and it does come across as a criticism for not trading down. I butchered the wording pretty badly. What I meant is that in that scenario my first choice would be to trade down. If I had to stick with a pick at that point, I'd probably go for Joe Haden, Derrick Morgan or Eric Berry. My big board right now for that #6 would probably look like this:
Suh
McCoy
Clausen
Bradford
(trade down)
Haden
Morgan
Berry
I hope that is explained better.
Thanks for the info, Nick. Much appreciated.
I think I'm right in saying Jerry Jones has only drafted one offensive lineman in R1 before. I see the reasons why he'd be interested in guys like Campbell (athleticism) and Iupati (size) but they could also be put off by Campbell's injuries and Iupati's rawness. I don't think he's the next Hutchinson like someone suggested earlier.
I wanted to try and put myself in Jones' shoes. I think him drafting Chad Jones is a great shout, that's the kind of pick I could see him making. I also thought he'd like Wilson because he's a bit of a playmaker, can play nickel in year one and also return kicks.
I don't think I've ever paid attention to just how many picks New England has collected in the second round. I wonder if they'd be a good trade target. From the Hawk's perspective, trading #6 for #22,44,47 seems like a dream scenario. (that even matches up on the trade value chart)
I don't know enough about New England to know if this is something they would even contemplate. Are they in "one more piece of the puzzle mode" or are they in "we need to reload mode"?
-=cysco
Rob,
Have you had a chance to take a look at Jarrett Brown? I know he's probably not going to go in the top 2 rounds so it's not really relevant here but his name got thrown around at the Senior Bowl. Any thoughts?
Lenny James,
I know we need a tackle, but reaching for a guy just to fill a need doesn't really fit with what Schneider has done in the past.It seems like the teams that have the most success in the draft take the BPA.
Cysco - the Patriots seem to do this every year. They're very good at accumulating picks. Next year they have two first rounders because of the Seymour trade with Oakland. The common law is, if you've just completed a trade with New England - you're team has been caught out as a sucker. They're also not ones for trading up to get 'one guy'. There's almost no chance Seattle will find a deal there, in fact it's more likely NE trades down in round one.
Annonymous - I've seen Brown perform very well and very poorly. I think he can be a good backup in the NFL. He'd be worth bringing in by a team that's got a QB and can develop him a bit and see what they have. Unfortunately, Seattle aren't in the position now to start being cute with later round QB's. They don't have time to develop one.
Kip, our #6 is almost the same:
"Suh
McCoy
Clausen
Bradford
(trade down)
Haden
Morgan
(no pick, get penalized two picks)"
Would be mine since I can't justify taking Berry at #6 and paying him all that money. Besides the facts that he's just a safety and he's undersized, I have some concerns about him. If for some reason Buffalo or San Francisco or Miami won't even offer us a 4th rounder to trade up, I'd rather just not make a pick and get a 2 pick penalty than select Berry. I've said this before, but would you rather have Berry for $50 million or Derrick Morgan/Bulaga (should they be around at #10) for $35 million? I'd rather have the latter.
I love the New England scenarios being brought up. One thing I would advocate if both DTs and both QBs are gone (or if the FO isn't sold on the QBs) is this, trying to trade for NE's Oakland pick next year, even if it means giving up #6 this year and trading back all the way to #22 or #44. (I know NE doesn't like high picks, so perhaps a third team would have to be involved or perhaps Belichek feels he can get a few useful years out of Kerney). Having two first round picks next year, both of which I think will be high, could go a long way to securing Jake Locker (if Carroll really is that enamored with him). With picks #14, #40, and #22/#44 we could still get a LT, a DT, and a play maker of our choice, not to mention a Blount type in the 4th.
How are you coming up with the $50 million for the 6th pick? last years 6 pick got $21 million in guaranteed money on a contract worth $26 million overall. Granted that was for a 4 year deal so he probably took a little less $ for that but Sanches only got $28 million in guaranteed on a 5 year deal as the 5th pick. Thanks.
Annonymous - I'm talking about the total deal. Andre Smith (who went 6th overall last year) got a $42m deal. Chances are that will increase this year, probably just under the $50m mark.
Rob,
Do you really think 1. Anthony Davis, 2. Dez Bryant, 3. Chad Jones would be better for the Seahawks' future than 1. Eric Berry, 2. Russell Okung, 3. Mike Iupati?
I know Berry is a little undersized but this kid can flat out play. Anyone who says otherwise has never watched a game of his. He's absolutely a safer pick than Anthony Davis, he may not be as much a position of need but I believe his caliber makes him a better value, and even though the Safety position rarely is taken this high I can think of 6 or 7 safeties right now I would trade our #6 pick for and not all are as good as Berry. You just can't pass on Eric Berry at #6 if he is still there.
I also don't believe we need to spend our #14 overall on Dez Bryant. This draft, like most, is rich with Wide Receiver talent and although Russell Okung has areas of concern it still stands that he has a considerable probability of being a Starting Left Tackle and a stud one at that. It's hard to swallow Anthony Davis and Dez Bryant over Eric Berry and Russell Okung.
I also believe Mike Iupati at #40 is the steal of the draft. We are so weak on our O Line right now that taking Iupati at #40 to go alongside Okung gives us immediately the most improved O Line from last year to next.
I realize that a Safety and 2 O Linemen aren't the flashiest picks but cementing the time our future QB and RB have to make reads and cuts respectively, and adding Mother-#%@^&#% Eric Berry before #41 overall is even drafted seams like we all go home happy and with cold ones on Day One. Chad Jones is no Eric Berry. Anthony Davis and Russell Okung aren't that much seperated potential wise, and Mike Iupati versus Dez Bryant doesn't keep me up at night.
Faub - I've voiced concerns about Berry (link below).
http://seahawksdraft.blogspot.com/2009/11/eric-berry-officially-over-rated.html
No doubt a very talented player, but not the all round brilliant prospect some have suggested. Tackling and size is a big concern for me with Berry. I've watched a considerable amount of tape on Tennessee just to get the best possible feel for Berry because my initial impression was that he was a mid-late first rounder. If you want my honest opinion, I still put him in that bracket.
If you take him at #6, he'll be the highest paid safety in the NFL. More than Ed Reed. Seattle would have almost $200m tied up on safety's and linebackers. Berry will get buried behind a line that cant rush the passer. You'll have two 'safe', highly touted prospects in Aaron Curry and Eric Berry struggling to have an influence because there's no legitimate pass rusher on the team. Put Ed Reed on Seattle's time last year and you dont win any more games. It's time the Seahawks invested in the positions that win you a championship - QB/OL/DL and playmakers. I think the new regime will appreciate that.
Okung concerns me a lot. To answer your question about who is better between Davis/Bryant/Jones or Berry/Okung/Iupati - I'd absolutely say the first option. I think Davis has much greater potential than Okung, bigger upside. Is he raw? Yes. But you have Alex Gibbs coaching him. The Seahawks need a playmaker somewhere on offense, Bryant can be a #1 receiver - you cant say that about Damian Williams in R2. You're getting a safety at a much more manageable cost, you're getting the best left tackle in the draft and a playmaker. That to me is superior to making a rookie with not-much-discussed issues the highest paid player at his position - a weaker left tackle and a guard who has a lot of upside, but something concerns me about Iupati. He struggles, because of his size, with leverage. That's crucial in the Gibbs system. He's incredibly raw.
I've read in several places that if Berry runs well he might end up being a corner in the NFL because of his cover skills and ballhawking. My question is, if he runs well and does switch to CB (a much higher paid and premium position in the NFL), where would he rank compared to Haden?
Perhaps I'm drinking too much of the Tebow kool-aid, but man, Tebow at #40 sounds tempting.
Tebow will do everything he can to be successful. Every damn thing he can. He has a prototypical QB body. Unlike Clausen/Bradford, he can take a hit.
I'd take the gamble at #40 if I was Bates.
Follow that with Crompton. Two prototype passers that just need proper coaching.
Then again, they could suck. This being the draft motto, it would seem. :)
Rob,
Your make some excellent points. I like Anthony Davis a lot. I think he will be very successful. I just don't think he will be that much more of an upgrade over Russell Okung, Bryan Bulaga, or Bruce Campbell, one of which should be available at #14.
I know we need playmakers but is Wide Receiver really that much of a need over Defense? If not Eric Berry wouldn't Derrick Morgan or Pierre-Paul make more sense along with OT at #14 than OT at #6 and Dez? Though Bryant seams the only #1 WR, D. Williams, M. Williams, LaFell, Benn, Tate, Gilyard, Thomas, Alexander... couldn't any one of these translate in time into just as much potential playmaking ability? Without speaking of trade scenarios in the 3rd round like last year, couldn't we get a great value on a WR on Day 2 or 3? WR is so hard to predict it just feels like too much risk taking one at 14. Especially since he barely played football at all last year.
If Mike Iupati isn't the answer in Round 2, wouldn't Jonathan Dwyer or Ryan Matthews be an excellent Seahawk pick over Chad Jones? I can't stomach Julius Jones for another year. Even the HOPE of a fresh look at RB taken in early rounds would be enough. Both of those guys can be feature backs and it seams guys in their skill sets taken around picks 30 to 60 end up making successful feature backs in the NFL.
I was surpised when I saw the changes to Tebow's throwing mechanics after such a short time, and it does seem to be released quicker and held much higher. If he gets that down with the intangibles that he has, he might end up being a good deal to jump on. My main issue with him is that he is a left handed quarterback, and the thought of Ray Willis becoming his blindside protector scares the crap out of me. Willis although good at run blocking seemed to get beat often by edge speed rushers. So either we draft a LT and move him to RT which is a different motion/feel, or we move locklear back to his normal postition, and draft a LT lower since he would essentially be a RT. This would also make the #1 receiver be on the left side would it not? Since thats the side he'll be facing towards? How would it affect the TE? Would he have to get used to being run off the left side all the time?
Charles - I think it's a legitimate point and for me - Berry's stock increases if teams feel he can play corner. I'm not totally convinced, but if he runs well enough in the forty some teams might see greater value at corner. It would certainly help eradicate some of his issues - such as lack of size and tackling quality in support.
Michael - I totally agree that Tebow will do everything it takes to be a success. Whether he does it or not is the big question. Your asking a guy to completely over haul his mechanics. That's not easy. With all the effort in the world, it might not work. He needs time, he needs a great QB coach. Someone will take him and give him his chance. I wouldn't bet against Tim Tebow. He won't be in Seattle though - Pete Carroll didn't return to the NFL to draft a major project coming from the spread offense to be his next QB.
Faub - I think the main issue I have with Okung is that he doesn't dominate. I've seen him really struggle against good pass rushers like Brian Orakpo and no name linebackers - but never seen him take a pass rusher out of a game. Some pundits love him - I don't see it. He's playing at his maximum peak for me, he won't get physically better. Davis has massive potential. He's raw - won't be 21 until the season starts. With quality coaching could be Ryan Clady. Could be better than Clady. Already better than Okung in protection. Needs to improve second level blocking but Seattle has Alex Gibbs. If he cant coach Davis, nobody can. Gibs + Davis could lead to a top five NFL LT. I don't think you'll ever get that from Okung.
Is receiver a bigger need than defense? I think finding playmakers on offense is as much of a need as a pass rusher - in the sense that both are huge needs. You need guys who can score points and make teams game plan. Seattle has - being brutaly honest - nobody that you have to gameplan. Housh at a push, but you let Housh have single coverage and blitz heavy and know you won't get beat badly. I'm not as high on Bryant as I was Crabtree, but nobody can compare to his all round ability and production in this class. He's a step above the rest. The only other guy I really like is LaFell, but top 15 is too early and #40 is too late. Even then, you worry about his lack of production. I think it'll be a bigger risk to future succes to rely on finding your skill position guys later in the draft. That plan didn't work for Tim Ruskell.
I'm not a fan of Dwyer and Matthews. Dwyer added bad weight last year. People see his size and think power back - but he isn't a power back. If he's genuinly lost 17lbs before the combine, that's good news. He was at his best in 2008 as a faster, breakaway threat who had a prototype frame. In 2009, he was a cumbersome lump with no burst, push, power. He took what he was given in a run-dominant offense. If he's in shape and runs well at the combine, I'll start talking about him potentially being a first/second round pick again. Based on 2009 tape, he looks like a fourth round RB who won't offer anything different to Seattle.
Matthews is very over rated for me. Just doesn't do anything really well. He isn't super fast, he isn't big. He gets knicked up. I think he's a bog standard back who you can find in the middle rounds. I'd give him a third round grade at best based on his production. I think Seattle will draft a running back, but it will be later. I like Mario Hardesty. But I expect Jones, Forsett and 'another' to be the running back tandem. They might even bring in another guy and use a lot of different runners, or let them fight for the starting role in camp.
Long-term plan...hawks need to address the OL and RB this year by investing two of the three picks at OL and the other pick at RB. Doesn't matter how it plays out as long as we draft the best available player at thier position. Lets be honest with ourselves we are not playoff contenders in 2010 and the top six teams drafting in this year draft will be drafting close to were they are drafting now. If this holds true the Redskins and Rams will more than likely address the QB position at this years draft. Which means they are less likely use thier first rd. pick at the QB position. Which will allow the hawks a greater chance to draft Locker in 2011.
Is Locker worth such planning? Would people be talking about Locker in this way if he wasn't the local boy?
Rob, I love the Davis pick at 6. I believe is justifies the the money issue associated with the 6 pick and fills a huge need. Do you think pick 6 is too high for Buluga or Okung, How do they compare to Davis. I do not think Dez Bryant will be there at 14. Denver and Miami are strong possibiites for Bryant. If Bryant is there at 14 pull the triger. With Bryant off the board I think an upgrade at D Line would be the next best thing. Which D limeman do you feel has the best value at 14 D. Morgan(got schooled by Buluga in the Orange Bowl), B. Price, JPP, or maybe Dunlap. With our current roster in mind, Who do you think would fit in best. It seems that we are hurting at DE and DT. I think the addition of Price would be ideal because he would demand double teams inside which could make Tapp and Jackson perform better. I would be against taking a DE based on the fact that we have drafted 2 DE's in recent years.
6. Okung/Davis/ Buluga(?)
14.B. Price
40. Best WR available.
3rd via trade best DE available.
4th Best DB available
5th Lagerette Blount RB
Hi Lenny,
I wouldn't advocate taking Okung or Bulaga at #6. Okung I think warrants no more than late first round consideration, as discussed already in here and various times on the blog. Bulaga - I have seen him have very good performances and some very average performances. I think he might struggle against a dynamic speed rush. I think he is very good for the run game though. He has the same positives/negatives that Jake Long had but he's not as physically superior. Put him at RT, give him that TE support and let him dominate in the run game. I think he could go top ten, I think he'd be better going 10-20.
I will be surprised if Parcells drafts a wide out. Likewise McDaniels - doesn't seem his style or the style of where he's come from and the guys he's worked with.
I disagree that Morgan go schooled by Bulaga in the Orange Bowl. Not Morgan's best game, but he had a superb year. If we're talking D-liners and using this mock, he's absolutely great value at #14 if you want to go in that direction. Price is an option, but a lack of range and the amount he gets dinged up worries me. He's off the field a lot. I expect JPP will be gone by #14. Everson Griffen could be an option.
Rob, I love the 14 and 40 picks, but not 6. I doubt we spend a high 1st round pick on O-line, despite almost universal belief that we will. I admit I'm in the minority. I'd much rather see, and frankly expect Haden a more likely and more valuable addition. There's no guarantee Trufant returns to prior form, and Wilson and Jennings aren't going to cut it. Wilson is a great nickel, and played admirably as a starter when Tru was out, but Haden would be a real big upgrade IMO. I fully expect mid round OT, QB and RB picks. We do need more picks, no question, because we have to get younger and better at numerous positions. Love the mock in general though, and agree with the top 3 as likely.
"Is Locker worth such planning? Would people be talking about Locker in this way if he wasn't the local boy?"
To answer you question personally, no. I'd love to have him if he were a Trojan, but I wouldn't game plan for it.
Rob, love the site its first class! To answer your question " Is Locker worth of such planning". Yes imagine a Dan Marino Arm with Michael Vick legs! Local boy making good icing on the cake. Personally I hate the huskies but I do respect great respect. As a loyal fan the frustration that I had last year was we had no direction with personnel! Its easier to plug-in a rookie QB if you a have a dominant OL and RB. Now thats planning ahead!
I think Locker could warrant the attention. I need to see more of him, not someone I've been able to study a lot. However, I do think he gets mentioned a lot in Seattle for geography purposes. Having said that, it does appear Pete Carroll is a big fan.
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