Sunday, 8 November 2009

Jahvid Best - The Best Runner in 2010?

Forgive the pun, I (like everyone else writing about Cal RB Jahvid Best) couldn't pass up the opportunity.

The speedy Best was at one point considered a Heisman hopeful and has a very small shot at leapfrogging Clemson's CJ Spiller as the #1 back taken in the 2010 NFL Draft. He has 16 touchdowns on the year and is averaging 6.1 YPC.

I had the chance to go over two games of Best, against Oregon (rough day statistically) and against Minnesota (huge game statistically).

Running the ball, Best is electric. He has the best lateral agility - the ability to bounce the run outside effectively - that I've seen since LaDanian Tomlinson. He has exceptional quickness and very good speed. He isn't as truly shifty as I expected, but his acceleration leaves defenders looking silly.

California uses Best to run inside quite often, and he's adequate there. He's very small, probably playing at 5'9 190, and that doesn't help him. He has a nice spin move that he'll use behind the tackles, but his best trait is his acceleration and willingness to hit the hole hard. If the line creates a push or a crease, he'll find it and he'll pick up the 2, 3, 4 yards inside. He can bust longer runs with good blocking, but all he creativity he shows outside is lacking inside, primarily due his inability to break tackles. While he isn't a liability running inside, he's more valuable running outside.

Best was targeted a few times as a receiver in the games I watched and didn't disappoint. He's deadly on screens, where he can use his quickness, speed, and vision to rip off big gains. He was sent past the LOS on a few routes and while he didn't record any big gains there, he showed enough route-running to make me comfortable splitting him out wide.

His value in the passing game is almost entirely dependent on his receiving, however. While Best gives good effort as a blocker, he doesn't always get the right man (not a huge problem, but he did miss a man or two) and when he does, his lack of size is a big problem. Linebackers can push him back and obviously he shouldn't be asked to take on defensive linesmen.

Seattle would not be a bad fit for Best. He suits a zone blocking scheme and would be a terror on stretch running plays.

Using as part of a two-back system would be ideal, but he's versatile enough that he wouldn't give away the play call on any given play. His ability to rip off big runs would bring a much needed spark to Seattle, and he also could help Seattle as a return man. However, while I really would like to have Best on my team, I don't think he's worth a first rounder in any situation and probably would make the most sense around pick #50, due to his injury history and blocking troubles.
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Saturday, 7 November 2009

Spiller for Heisman?

C.J. Spiller today vs Florida State: 165 rushing yards and a touchdown (8 yards per carry average) and 67 receiving yards (including a 58-yard touchdown reception).

C.J. Spiller in 2009: 739 rushing yards, 334 receiving yards, 721 return yards and 12 total touchdowns.
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Suh and McCoy justify top billing

The Oklahoma vs Nebraska game was always going to be a battle of the big defensive tackles. Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska) and Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma) have been #1 and #2 in my 2010 rankings from day one and nothing tonight suggested that shouldn't be the case. Suh gets the edge because he seems to consistently make plays in many different ways. He blocked a field goal today, tipped passes and generally caused havoc with his unique combination of power and athleticism. He also ate up blocks which put Jared Crick in plenty of one-on-one match ups, enabling him to put on another show a week after registering five sacks against Baylor. Crick's a redshirt sophomore and could add to an already deep class on the defensive line if he declares - he got another sack and his tipped pass (leading to an interception) confirmed the win for Nebraska.

McCoy recovered a fumble but generally tends to make a lot of plays in the backfield. He gets good penetration at the point of attack, shows good burst to shed a blocker and has the power to drive people back collapsing the pocket. This wasn't his most eye catching performance - but on closer inspection you'll notice how often he's in the backfield. He lined up a couple of times at defensive end, the first time I've seen that from him personally. Suh does it regularly and projects to work in the 4-3 or 3-4 equally well. McCoy is a pure 4-3 three technique but even when asking to rush from the edge he did a good job, showing a better burst than most defensive ends.

Suh's playmaking qualities separate the two and that's why he's down to go first overall in my mock draft. There aren't many defensive tackles who can win you a game on their own, but Suh has that potential. He's in the quarterback's face, he wraps up tackles, he catches interceptions and takes them to the house, he blocks field goals and he tips passes. He's a superstar in the making.
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Bulaga impressive even in defeat

I had a chance to watch Iowa left tackle Bryan Bulaga for the second consecutive week and I have to say he was impressive. Despite the Hawkeye's losing their unbeaten record to Northwestern, Bulaga was pretty much unbeatable all afternoon, creating perfect protection to the quarterback's blind side. It's a shame the other side of the offensive line weren't half as good - it might have kept quarterback Ricky Stanzi in the game.

On the game's first drive, Bulaga showed better footwork than I saw last week and good upper body strength to keep Corey Wootton at bay (a solid pro-prospect himself), affording Stanzi the chance to step into the pocket and launch a strike downfield for a touchdown. Northwestern kept Wootton away from Bulaga after that, putting him on the opposite flank or at outside linebacker. That essentially won the game, it was his hit on Stanzi that forced him off at the start of the second quarter - running untouched into the end zone to hammer the quarterback as a left side linebacker.

This prevented the opportunity to watch Bulaga competing against top competition, but he dominated this game nonetheless. His main attribute is his strength. He over powers a lot of college defensive lineman and this was no different today. Play after play he opened up huge holes in the running game, positioning his blocks perfectly whether pulling inside to create an open edge or driving his man away from the line of scrimmage for an inside run. He was equally good in pass protection, never beaten on the edge and as soon as he got his hands on a pass rusher it was game over.

I'm still not entirely convinced he'll declare as a junior prospect. It's only the relatively mediocre depth at offensive tackle that makes me believe he'll chase the money, especially since it's unlikely now Iowa will achieve a Rose Bowl berth (an assumption I know, but they lost more than the game today). Now, nothing today convinced me that he's not a better prospect at right tackle than he is at left. He won't have the same advantage with his strength in the NFL than he does now at college level. His great run blocking lends itself to the right side and he could be a pro-bowler at that position or guard.

However, in the same way teams fell in love with Jake Long the same could happen with Bulaga. He won't go first overall like Long and he's a step below the former Michigan blocker, but he could go higher than most are predicting now. Some teams will feel they can use him on the left and that will help his stock. Other teams (like Seattle) who favor more agile lineman might not be as keen to take him early. He could be awesome at right tackle or as an interior lineman, so if he did drop later into round one he could be an option with Seattle's second pick (should he declare) but I imagine he'll be long gone by then.
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Saturday's highlights


Four games are on my schedule today, with thoughts on all before the end of the weekend. Here are the games I'll be watching and what I'll be looking out for:

Northwestern vs Iowa
Another chance to watch Bryan Bulaga, a junior offensive tackle who could declare for the 2010 draft. He'll be coming up against another potential first round pick - defensive end Corey Wootton. My initial thoughts were that Bulaga projects as a better right tackle prospect in the NFL, we'll see if today changes that opinion.

LSU vs Alabama
How does Tigers wide out Brandon LaFell perform against the Crimson Tide defense? He hasn't been helped by inconsistent quarterback play this year. He could be a first round pick but he didn't have much of an impact last time I watched LSU against Florida. There are a few other pro-prospects to watch in this game.

Ohio State vs Penn State
Seattle won't take a linebacker in the first round next year, but one prospect who's moving up draft boards is the Nittany Lions' Sean Lee. This should be a battle of defenses and by no means a pretty game of football and for the first time in a while, there aren't any big name Buckeye's expected to go in round one.

Oklahoma vs Nebraska
It's all about defensive tackles. My #1 overall prospect (Ndamukong Suh) against my #2 overall prospect (Gerald McCoy). It's a chance to watch two guys with pro-bowl potential. Scouts will be heavily in attendance and whoever performs the best could get an edge in terms of draft stock. It's also worth keeping an eye on Suh's DT partner Jared Crick who's also flashed potential at times this year, none more so than last week when he recorded 13 tackles and five sacks against Baylor.

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Friday, 6 November 2009

Some weekend mocks

Rob Rang updated his mock draft today. The chart says USC tight end Anthony McCoy is going to Seattle with the 9th overall pick, but it's obviously supposed to be Texas quarterback Colt McCoy looking at Rang's description. I have to say, I can't see it myself. I'll be very surprised if he ends up going in round one, let alone the top ten. The Seahawks take Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma) with their second pick, another move I'm not overly keen on.

Chad Reuter also publishes a new prediction on CBS Sportsline. He send Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State) and C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson) to the Seahawks. I love the second pick but I'll be surprised if Spiller lasts that long, especially if he runs a great 40 time at the combine. I'm not a fan of taking Okung that early but I think he'll probably end up going near the top of the draft due to the limited talent at offensive tackle this year.

Walter Cherepinsky also thinks the Seahawks will target an offensive lineman early in round one - this time Maryland's Bruce Campbell. I've not seen much of Campbell in fairness, but I believe he's suffered a lot of injury problems. California running back Jahvid Best is the second pick for Seattle as the Seahawks look for an offensive playmaker in the backfield. C.J. Spiller's still on the board and given a choice of the two, I'd probably take Spiller.

Matt McGuire is also going offensive tackle in round one (it seems to be the popular choice right now for the Seahawks considering all the injury issues at the position). It's another new name this time - Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa). Tomorrow I'll be watching four games one of which is Iowa against Northwestern. It'll be the second time I'll have a chance to watch Bulaga, my initial thoughts were that he's best suited to play right tackle in the NFL. McGuire pins the Seahawks down to take Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) later in round one - a move I simply cannot see happening.

Scott Wright goes in a different direction, giving Seattle C.J. Spiller as early as the 12th overall pick. That's a bit of a reach but if the team did want Spiller badly enough, they might have to take him in that range. I don't think he'll last deep into the 20's like some people are predicting - he's an explosive playmaker in a year that's lacking at the offensive skill positions. The Seahawks select USF safety Nate Allen late in round one - an even bigger reach.

Click here to see my first 2010 mock draft.
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Thursday, 5 November 2009

Looking at the RBs: Toby Gerhart

Hello Seahawks Draft Blog-Readers! I've been pretty quiet lately, but I'll be putting up quite a bit this weekend - just the way the schedule looked. I was going to save this for Saturday, but I noticed Rob has stepped out and figured I'd put this up tonight.

Toby Gerhart, a senior from Stanford, starts off the first of about half a dozen running backs I'll be scouting over the next week or two. A true two-sport athlete, Gerhart would easily have a baseball future if he hung up his pads. His NFL future is equally as bright, however, as Gerhart will definitely hear his name called on draft weekend.

Let us start with the positives. At 6'1, 235 Gerhart has excellent size and runs with the mentality of a power back. He's always falling forward, making him an excellent choice for grinding out yards. Gerhart has very good vision (and he's patient), looks to be a great blocker (need to see more), and showed nice hands a couple of times. He also shows the ability to run with good pad level, though it isn't consistent.

The biggest hole in Gerhart's game is his lack of athleticism. He isn't a guy who can consistently hit the corner in the NFL, but he can run off-tackle if the blocking is good. He should be able to run the stretch-runs that are a staple in zone-heavy schemes. His quickness is alright except when he has to change directions, then he slow down dramatically (usually means tight hips and limited athleticism combined). When he is in the open field, he can be caught from behind but he can rip off long runs as well. I'm also concerned with how often Gerhart is taken off the field - I don't know if it is conditioning or just a cautious coaching staff, but it is something Seattle needs to do their homework on.

The zone blocking system seems to do best with either small, quick backs or huge power backs - very little in between. Gerhart is the type of back who could consistently get 4 or 5 yards if Seattle ever straightens out their offensive line. He also brings the production and intangibles that Tim Ruskell loves - IF Gerhart commits to football and leaves his baseball career at Stanford. I wouldn't take Gerhart before the 3rd round because I think he's a situational runner, but that doesn't mean he couldn't be a 15-carry-a-game guy in a committee situation. He'll give you good production inside without entirely giving away the game plan, and you can leave him in on 3rd-and-long.

Of course, I've only combed through two games of Gerhart, so things such as blocking, ball security, and receiving need more time before they an be considered accurately evaluated. As a runner, though, this should give you an idea what to expect from the Stanford back.
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Wednesday, 4 November 2009

Wednesday links

Just a word of warning - I'll be on a course in Newcastle over the next couple of days so the blog might not get updated much. I'll try and get something up tomorrow evening and Kyle might put something on, but if not we'll be back to full strength on Friday ahead of another weekend of college/NFL football.

Mel Kiper explains why the 2010 draft offers a deep class on the defensive line: "There is (Julius) Peppers type talent in Carlos Dunlap. He's starting to pick it up. He's the 4th highest rated player on my Big Board. You have an up and comer, former junior college player, Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF; Everson Griffen, jr. DE, USC is at 14; Jerry Hughes, TCU, he's like a Terrell Suggs player, an OLB; Brandon Graham, Michigan; Greg Hardy from Miss.; Willie Young from NC State; Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech; Allen Bailey, DE, Miami, he's had an outstanding year; Greg Romeus, Pitt; Jason Worilds, VT. It's a very deep and talented group of DEs and very talented and deep group at DTs."

Steve Muench compares Jahvid Best and C.J. Spiller and sees similarities between the two: "It's hard not to compare Best to Clemson RB C.J. Spiller because they flash similar explosiveness and versatility. Spiller contributes more as a return man, but Best certainly has the potential to develop that area of his game. Like Spiller, Best will not be an every-down power back, but getting him 20 touches in various ways will present problems for defenses because he is a threat to score every time he gets the ball in his hands. Overall, Best ranks as the No. 2 running back on the board -- just behind Spiller -- and projects to come off the board late in the first round."

Scott Wright talks about Myron Rolle, who's been spending the last few months at Oxford University on the Rhodes Scholarship: "In all honesty Rolle has been a little overrated as a pro prospect over the years and he isn’t going to be a first round pick like many thought. Rolle possesses very good size at 6-2 and 218 pounds but there are serious questions about his speed, to the point where many scouts feel he will have to make the conversion to outside linebacker at the next level. Despite Rolle’s shortcomings in coverage he is tough, physical, hard working and obviously extremely smart so he will score off the charts when it comes to the intangibles."

Matt McGuire updates his 2010 big board but doesn't think much of the quality: "When I put my star grades on my spreadsheet, I began to realize that this could have the potential to be a very weak draft. I hope I am just being negative and not seeing it for what it is, but I just haven't been impressed with the top-40 talent thus far in the season. This could change quickly, but I don't have high hopes."

Rob Rang reports that highly rated Syracuse receiver Mike Williams has surprisingly quit the team: "Williams, who missed the entire 2008 season due to suspicion of academic fraud, had been leading the Big East conference in catches per game (7) and receiving yards per game (106.57) despite having less than ideal talent around him. The 6-2, 212 pound Williams has surprising straight-line speed and lateral agility to elude defenders, making him one of the better after-the-catch receivers in the country."

Chad Reuter lists his risers and fallers and wasn't impressed with USF's George Selvie: "His one tackle was for a loss and it came three minutes into the contest. Selvie still has the good burst off the snap that garnered him All-American honors as a sophomore. But his thin frame and inability to get off blocks will probably cause a position shift to linebacker and keep him from being the first-round pick everyone expected him to be two years ago. Even with junior DE Jason Pierre-Paul getting attention on the other side of the line, Selvie has managed only three sacks this season.
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