LIVE: NFL Draft (Rounds 2-3)

As with yesterday, we'll have instant analysis on all of the second round picks made today. I'll provide a summary of round three picks. The Seahawks own the 60th overall selection and after that, are not set to pick again until Saturday with two fourth rounders. Will they make a move? It's been speculated that the reason they accumulated picks in rounds 4-7 was to get the ammunition to move up today. This is an immensely talented round two, but there will be a drop off (and potentially a substantial one) in rounds 3-4. Guaranteeing the guy you want today might be wise at the expense of picks later - you could say, quality over quantity.

So what should the Seahawks do? Stay put and see what happens? Trade up with a lot of big name talent on the board? Consider a deal for a current NFL veteran like Marshawn Lynch, as speculated in some quarters (and rejected in others)? Let me know what you think in the comments section and stay tuned to Seahawks Draft Blog for instant live analysis as the picks come in.

What we said... Jimmy Clausen

Jimmy Clausen is still on the board at the start of round two. Initial thoughts? The Rams own a figurative 'golden egg' right now, with every team in the NFL knowing they can guarantee a big name, big talent at a very reasonable cost by trading for the Rams pick. Dunlap, Mays, Griffen, Kindle, Brown and Clausen - take your pick. The importance of the quarterback position and Clausen's availability in particular could mean a big move to start round two. The worst case scenario for St. Louis will be having to use the pick on the plethora of quality still on the board.

However, it's no surprise to me that Clausen faces this situation. When I watched Clausen, my review wasn't great. On November 16th last year, I severely criticised Clausen's physical and technical qualities:

"Now, it's easy to see why Clausen has put up nice numbers this year. He doesn't make a lot of bad decisions in the short game that lead to interceptions. A lot of his passes are high percentage outside slants and we have to remember that he's throwing to two of the better receivers in college football - Michael Floyd and Golden Tate. But I saw no evidence of a guy who can come into the NFL and put up big numbers quickly. He can't keep throwing the same outside slant every week to the same guys, occasionally floating passes downfield hoping something comes off. He'll be an interception machine throwing downfield like that." - 11/16/09

When I began to project mock drafts, I left Clausen out of round one:

"What about Jimmy Clausen? When I've scouted the Notre Dame quarterback this year, I've not been impressed. He has mechanical issues with a low, side arm throwing motion which often leads to deflected passes. Clausen loses all velocity throwing off his back foot - which can be often. The vast majority of his passes are high percentage outside slants to two of the most productive receivers in college football - he hasn't shown an ability to make a deep range of NFL throws. I think this will be enough to put teams off at the top of the board and he could suffer a substantial fall." - 12/9/09

Whilst other more high profile draft commentators projected a fall due to Clausen's off-field character, I never really took that into much account. For me, the Notre Dame quarterback just didn't have enough to his game physically or technically to warrant a high pick. The evidence from yesterday is - teams in need of a quarterback felt the same way. Although some teams (and I include Seattle in this) seemingly left Clausen out of consideration for unspecified red flags, I'm also not sure anyone felt convinced that this guy would come into the NFL and succeed.

The importance of the position and severe need for quarterbacks (including in Seattle) motivated many (myself included) to perhaps push Clausen into consideration. In hindsight, we should've trusted our initial judgements. Todd McShay had a well publicised battle with Mel Kiper on Clausen, with McShay touting a fall for the quarterback. By the draft, both McShay and myself had Clausen in round one. Here's what I wrote on January 13th:

"We know new regimes often mean new quarterbacks. It's entirely plausible that Pete Carroll and his staff will seriously consider drafting a rookie quarterback for the future. Matt Hasselbeck is approaching the final of year of his contract - he'll be 35 by the time the 2010 season is over. As former GM Tim Ruskell admitted last year (before passing on Mark Sanchez), the Seahawks are "in the zone" with regard to finding a long term answer at the position. If indeed Carrol was enamoured by Clausen's skills in high school he may wish to create a working relationship in the NFL." - 1/13/10

Yet, in the same article, I added:

"Amongst my previous concerns with Clausen has been his lack of range in the passing game. Against Stanford, he registered thirty pass attempts. Of these, thirteen were short slants to the left or right to one of Michael Floyd or Golden Tate. Two were shovel passes and two were check down's through the middle. Clausen threw five screen passes. The remaining eight attempts were a combination of a failed hail mary to end the game, three deep corner routes, a pass thrown away, an end around trick, a fade left and a 20 yard attempt down the middle.

"I've noticed that a lot of throws made by Clausen are outside slants to Floyd or Tate. Nearly 50% of his passes were this high percentage outside slant, quickly thrown off the snap to one of the talented receivers in a lot of space. 73% of his throws were ten yards or shorter. The stats for the year are very good, but when you're throwing a lot of high percentage throws for short yardage in a quick hitting offense - it's no surprise. You're going to complete passes, you're not going to throw interceptions.

But of more concern is that Clausen will become predictable and easy to gameplan if he can't make 'all the throws'. A top ten quarterback needs to be able to get the ball downfield as well as show great short range accuracy." - 1/13/10

In the end, I wasn't surprised that Clausen dropped as far as he has. It might be to do with character concerns, it could be something not known to any of us. However, I have to believe that Clausen's overall game is one of the main reasons why he starts round two without a home.

Some more inside info on the 1st round

By Kip Earlywine

Just thought I'd pass it along:

"A few minor tidbits that may interest some...
final big board rankings through our first pick:
1.Suh
2.McCoy
3.Bradford
4.Williams
5.Okung
6.Berry

I didn't know how the Hawks rankings on Okung vs Williams until very very recently. Okung has a lower ceiling but higher floor then Williams. Trade value was down this year for moving down, teams were unwilling to deal future ones. Concern was Dallas may trade with San Fran for Earl Thomas, whom the Hawks zeroed in on in the past few days. That didn't happen but there was major concern when Philly moved there apparently, followed by relief when Thomas wasn't the pick. Morgan would have been the pick if Thomas was gone, not a shocker, but Thomas was decidedly the higher ranked prospect. Though everyone says Gibbs makes good OL out of mid level talent, a major selling point on getting him here is the org would use a high pick on a LT if the board fell that way without a reach happening. Though he really wanted Williams, apparently he is fine with Okung. (I haven't had a detailed conversation yet involving Okung.) PC was never going to be blinded by USC products like some suspected. Just the opposite, he knows all their flaws and limitations. I didn't post all this info, some I just messaged to someone here I trusted, but it was pretty accurate now that round one is complete."

The 2010 first round: more awesome than I expected

By Kip Earlywine
Today was much more exciting than I thought it would be. Maybe its because in a typical draft, I have an intimate understanding of 5-10 players, whereas this year it was about 60. Knowing a player and coming to my own conclusions on them makes for a very different viewing experience. In past years, I'd just look at "Kiper's Best Available" and think "we should get player X because he's high on the list and fits a need!" This year, I had a more personal understanding, not only of the prospects but of the Seahawks specific schemes as well. I can't express how different and amazing that makes the draft feel.

To read the rest of Kip's analsysis, click 'read more'.

To me there were 4 crucial non-Seahawks teams to watch during picks 1-13. The Chiefs, the Jaguars, the Chargers, and the Eagles. The Chiefs held the keys to one of Eric Berry, Russell Okung, or Trent Williams (if he had lasted that far). The Jaguars were the biggest obstacle for Derrick Morgan reaching the 14th pick. The Chargers and Eagles did not pick ahead of the Seahawks, but they were still critically important because they were the two teams most likely to make a deal at #14. So when the Chargers traded up with Miami and the Eagles swung that deal with the Broncos, that dealt a pretty big blow to the Seahawks, even though none of the players taken were on Seattle's radar.

My mock draft was looking pretty good through 4 picks. Trent Williams was the pick at #4, as Rob Rang revealed yesterday. That meant that KC would choose between Okung and Berry. I expected Berry to be the pick, which meant Okung would be at the top of Carroll's big board at #6, and thus a semi-obvious pick there. That's how things played out and with the 6th pick in the draft...


My mock was perfect through 6. I was pretty excited.

Haden was my first mistake at #7, a totally understandable pick. In retrospect, I probably should have mocked Haden there- it was a pretty obvious selection beforehand.

Then all hell broke loose. Al Davis is famous for being crazy and unpredictable, but no one had the Raiders taking Rolando McClain before the draft. Buffalo's pick was just as shocking. With Clausen, Bulaga, and Davis all still available, they took CJ Spiller. Then came Jacksonville- the most crucial non-Seahawk pick in the draft, in my opinion. The whole time this pick was up, I was chanting "please not Morgan!"

As I've alluded to in the past, I used to play left tackle in high school and briefly for a division II college. Part of being a great lineman is being fast off the snap- and one of the techniques to achieve that is listening for the first sound. In other words, you don't fire off when you hear "HUT!", you fire off at 100 mph when you hear "h....". Jacksonville's card comes in, and I'm standing, leaning over really, in my living room waiting for the first sound, the "D" in Derrick Morgan. Goodell begins to speak. I'm 99% certain I'm going to hear that D, but instead, "T," as in Tyson.... wait who? Tyson Jackson?! I was so breathless I had to rewind my DVR. Tyson Alualu.

Tyson Alualu.


Unreal.

This is, without a doubt, the most inexplicable and surprising top 10 pick I can remember ever seeing, and it had the added bonus of aiding the Seahawks.

What made it all the more incredible is that Jacksonville does not own a 2nd rounder, so in the first two rounds, all they'll have to show for last year's 7-9 team is a projected late 2nd round DT. Tim Tebow would have been less of a reach, and completely understandable at #10 in comparison.

Anyway, Jacksonville- you blew my mind. Thank you. Moving on.

Overall, I really liked how the dominoes fell for Seattle today. Other than Suh and McCoy going in the top 3 as expected, I don't think today could have had the picks fall any better than they did. Okung is not highly regarded here at SDB, but he was the consensus #1 LT in the draft, and LT was the Seahawks #1 need. Earl Thomas is not the pick I would have made, and to be honest, I'm a little surprised that Morgan was snubbed, not once but twice. But when the punishment for passing on Derrick Morgan is Earl Thomas, I think I can live with that. Its the difference between an A+ pick and a B+ pick. For months I was living in terror that the team might select JPP, Griffen or Mays with a 1st rounder. I'd probably give the Seahawks first round an "A" just for avoiding those guys with such high picks.

I really have to give Seattle credit for their effort to trade. They didn't select Okung until a mere 2 minutes remained at #6, and they went to the wire at #14 before selecting Earl Thomas. I wasn't a fan of any of the moves the Seahawks made in free agency really, but I have to say, I love how the Seahawks have handled the draft so far. Dare I say, Carroll/Schneider seem like a savvy drafting duo. Its still early of course, but I was impressed by what I saw today.

Coming in, I assumed that John Schneider was a tools oriented GM ala Al Davis, sans crazy. Instead, he took two relatively moderate tools players, and seriously considered (I'm assuming) a 3rd in Derrick Morgan. Russell Okung is not lacking for tools. He has D'Brickishaw Ferguson-like arms and solid combine measurables. But his ceiling is not as high as Trent Williams, Anthony Davis, or even Bruce Campbell. What makes Okung such a high pick is his combination of good tools and solid polish. He's more NFL ready than the 3 names above, but has better tools than say Bulaga or Brown. I'm rambling here but my point is, Okung is not some raw, all-tools type guy. On the contrary- he's a relatively safe pick with a high floor.

I never previewed Okung, because Kyle had already done a full scouting report early on, and since Kyle and I agree on things 95% of the time, I just moved on and used that energy to cover someone else. In my wholly amateur and half-informed opinion, I really like Okung though, and have from the beginning. There is a smoothness and efficient nature to his movement that really appeals to me. My only real complaint with Okung is that he seems get by with minimum effort. Being efficient and not working harder than you have to is cool and all, but there is simply no such thing as being too scrappy as an offensive lineman. Okung makes a few mental mistakes as well. If someone lights a fire under his ass and beats the mistakes out of him, Okung will very quickly become a near pro-bowl level left tackle. Cue Alex Gibbs. Gibbs is the gift that just keeps giving. All these months later, I'm still stoked that the Seahawks managed to bring him on board.

I've said elsewhere before the draft that Earl Thomas is the draft's safest pick. He has no major flaws in his game. He's a gamer and a leader too. In the preview piece I wrote on Thomas months ago, I compared him to a Tim Ruskell 2nd round pick. That may seem like a slam on a projected mid-1st rounder, but remember that for all his faults, Tim Ruskell was money with his 2nd round picks. Thomas is like that. He's money. He's Lofa Tatupu playing safety. Its fitting then that Earl Thomas would be drafted with a pick gained from Tim Ruskell's final 2nd round pick in Seattle. If Thomas gets any pub at all, I think he's an early front runner to be defensive rookie of the year in 2010.

In the end, I'm happy with these two picks because tackle and safeties with speed tend to age gracefully and enjoy long careers. The Seahawks are many years away from serious contention, so it makes a lot of sense to make the biggest investments in players that have a great chance of contributing over the long haul. Its entirely possible that in 2020, Okung and Thomas may still be contributors for the Seahawks. That's amazing to think about.

What about the rest? Here are some other things of note today (bullet points edition):

• Jimmy Clausen goes undrafted through round 1. When I first saw Clausen last year, I figured he'd be a 2nd rounder, but a lot has happened since then and to see him actually land in the 2nd round is stunning. Most shocking of all, is that Minnesota passed on him by trading down. Maybe the Vikings still take him early next round, but if they believe in him enough to take him then, why risk it? When even the Vikings are passing, you know your in trouble. Clausen absolutely made the right decision staying at home. Today would have been agony with the cameras locked on to him after every single selection.
  

• Charles Brown goes undrafted through round 1. Not totally shocking, but I now wish more than ever that the accursed Charlie Whitehurst trade had never been conceived. Seattle would normally be a 4th round toss-in away from either Jimmy Clausen or Charles Brown right now if they still had the #40. Yep, those 20 spots in draft order do matter as it turns out. Hell, if Seattle was offered the #33 for a future 2nd and the #60 so they could move up for one of those guys- I wouldn't bat an eyelid.

• Jahvid Best was a bittersweet selection at #30. Best is one of my favorite players in the entire draft, and I was hoping he'd have an improbable slide well into the 2nd round. I never thought he'd reach #60, but I did think he might reach #45 and entice a trade up. On the other hand, I made a bold prediction that Best would be a late 1st round pick (I was only off by 2 spots), so that felt good, and heck- Best deserves first round status. Apparently, concussions didn't bother the Lions at all, just like they didn't bother me. The Lions by the way have a very savvy front office that has made nothing but smart moves since taking over last year. Don't be shocked if the Lions are a force in the near future.

• I thought Ryan Mathews was a big reach at #12, but an understandable one. There was no way that Mathews or Spiller would have reached #28, and the opportunity to make a reasonable trade was there. I think the Chargers will be happy with Mathews, but its been a long journey from Mathews from 2nd/3rd round no name to 12th overall pick over the span of 4 months.

• Dan Williams fell all the way to Arizona, and Bryan Bulaga fell all the way to Green Bay. Huge bargains. Sometimes picking in the 20's isn't as bad as people think.

• San Francisco has to be the favorite to win the division next year. They already have a team loaded with talent on defense and now have by far the most talented offensive line in the division. Joe Staley is a solid left tackle, Mike Iupati is a pro-bowl caliber guard prospect and Anthony Davis is a potential all-pro RT.

Looking ahead to round two, the inside source we've cited (which mentioned Thomas at #14 and hinted at Okung at #6) has the Seahawks looking most seriously at Jahvid Best, Ryan Mathews, Tim Tebow, Mardy Gilyard and Geno Atkins. The first 3 names are already gone. Will Gilyard or Atkins reach #60? Gilyard has probably a 50/50 shot, and Atkins has probably a 60/40 chance I would guess. Since its only a list of two preferred players, and because Seattle has substantial draft ammunition, I think there is a very real chance Seattle trades up once this list of two becomes a list of one. I think either player would make for a nice draft pick, but right now, I'd lean Gilyard. We need WR depth desperately and a quality WR group will help along our next franchise QB, whoever that ends up being. Gilyard is a Deion Branch clone, but at the same time is money on 3rd downs in a manner reminiscent of Bobby Engram.

Instant first round analysis

By Rob Staton

The Seahawks drafted Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State) and Earl Thomas (S, Texas) in round one. We understood that Trent Williams and Eric Berry were big targets, so when they went 4th and 5th overall the Seahawks had to look elsewhere. They still drafted a long term solution at left tackle and a safety. We've voiced some concerns about Okung and Kyle Rota's scouting report is worth a read - but he has a chance to work with Alex Gibbs and that will almost certainly iron out some of the kinks. From the moment I watched Earl Thomas, I felt he showed more potential than Eric Berry and Taylor Mays. That was enhanced upon further review.

Walter Cherepinsky gives Seattle an A grade for the Okung pick and a B for Thomas. Danny O'Neil reports some quotes from line-guru Gibbs on Okung, with the statement essentially that Okung will be 'thrown right in' as a starter. O'Neil also shares some lines from Thomas who says the draft experience was 'surreal'. You can watch the Seahawks select Okung by clicking here, and Thomas by clicking here. For full first round 'as it happened' analysis click here.

There were plenty of shocks and surprises in round one, including plenty of trades. The most surprising for me were undoubtedly the Jaguars taking Tyson Alualu in the top ten, that came from nowhere. Secondly - Denver made a bold move back into round one for Tim Tebow. In 12 months, Josh McDaniels has traded Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, whilst drafting Demaryius Thomas and Tim Tebow. Interesting times at Mile High.

A number of big names remain on the board. USC's Everson Griffen, Taylor Mays and Charles Brown didn't go in the first round. Sergio Kindle of Texas is available. Offensive lineman Bruce Campbell and Roger Saffold are still there as is Florida's Carlos Dunlap and UCLA's Brian Price. Without doubt though the big storyline is Jimmy Clausen's fall. The question is - where does he land? Kansas City have Charlie Weis - are they an option? Cleveland? Oakland? Buffalo? We asked all these questions in round one and they all passed. Where does he go now? Seahawks Draft Blog was one of the original places to predict a potential Clausen fall out of round one. On December 9th, I posted this mock draft.

The Seahawks could make a move upwards in round two using their two fourth round picks. Defensive line remains an issue and their are good defensive ends available at the top of round two. But there are plenty of options available to Seattle and if they stay put, value remains at #60. Let me know what you thought about the Seahawks taking Okung and Thomas in the comments section and also what Seattle should do in round two.

2010 NFL Draft

ROUND 1



#1 St Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
This pick has been obvious for a long time and is not a surprise. The Rams need a franchise quarterback to build around.




#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
I never once had Okung picked here, because Suh was the obvious choice. Every move in the off season was geared around taking Suh here.




#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
With Detroit taking Suh, Tampa Bay were happy to settle for McCoy. He might have the better career.




#4 Washington: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
Scheme fit and this makes Seattle's choice at #6 a lot easier.




#5 Kansas City: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The new regime in Seattle were dreading this scenario. They wanted Williams or Berry, now both are gone. The Seahawks are on the clock.




#6 Seattle: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
Welcome to Seattle, Russell Okung. The Seahawks have a great offensive line coach. Okung has the physical skills, let's hope the two can combine to sufficiently replace the great Walter Jones.
Watch the Seahawks take Russell Okung 6th overall



#7 Cleveland: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
Haden is a great football player who fills a need in Cleveland's secondary. His best football is to come.




#8 Oakland: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
I had McClain at #5 throughout, this is a much smarter pick than Oakland have made in the past. Coach on the field, can be very good.




#9 Buffalo: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
I'm higher on Spiller than some. Buffalo clearly don't like Anthony Davis, so their options were limited. They took the best player on their board.




#10 Jacksonville: Tyson Alualu (DT, California)
Nobody expected this - the draft's first major shock. They passed on Derrick Morgan and JPP. Interesting that the Jaguars didn't trade down, they don't own a second round pick.




#11 San Francisco: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
The Niners make a trade with Denver, swapping #13 for #11 for the price of a fourth rounder. Davis is raw but has major upside. He has the right coach.




#12 San Diego: Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)
The Chargers make a big move, trading #28 for #12. The cost is Seattle's old second rounder at #40 and a fourth rounder. Was this actually to keep Mathews away from Seattle? Why else a trade this big?




#13 Philadelpia: Brandon Graham (DE, Michigan)
Three trades in a row. Again, is this to keep Graham away from Seattle? The cost - two third round picks. Seattle are on the clock.




#14 Seattle: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
The Seahawks get their corner/safety hybrid. This guy is a playmaker. It seems like Pete Carroll was always sold on a tackle and safety combo. I stand by my opinion on this blog that I preferred Thomas over Berry.
Watch the Seahawks take Earl Thomas 14th overall



#15 New York Giants: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
JPP has major upside, it's just whether or not he can match potential with long term production. Unbelievable that Derrick Morgan is still on the board.




#16 Tennessee: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
This is amazing value for the Titans at their biggest position of need. Tennessee fans should be delighted with this.




#17 San Francisco: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
The Niners, potentially, have an offensive line for the ages. Staley is entrenched, they now have a very good young book end in Davis and a guard with amazing upside.




#18 Pittsburgh: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
The Steelers finally spend a high pick on their offensive line after years of spoilt mocks. They always find value in Pittsburgh. Falcons pick should be interesting next.




#19 Atlanta: Sean Wetherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I think Wetherspoon is a bit over rated, but he fills a need for the Falcons. There's some big names still on the board. Houston will go cornerback.




#20 Houston: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
As expected, a cornerback for Houston. They had their pick of the bunch really, with Wilson and McCourty still around too.




#21 Cincinnati: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Nobody ever doubted Gresham's talents, it's just those serious knee injuries that worry me. If he was more durable, he'd have gone higher than this even.




#22 Denver: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
What a surprise, the Patriots trade down. Interesting choice for Denver, moving Marshall to take a guy with raw talent, but whom worked in a scheme from which we can learn only so much about his talents.




#23 Green Bay: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
I projected a fall for Bulaga in my last few mocks. This is par value for a guy who isn't without his faults but will be a solid pro in Green Bay.




#24 Dallas: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
The Cowboys move above Baltimore to get Bryant. This is a great pick by Dallas and a great fit for Bryant.




#25 Denver: Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
Unbelievable. There was some talk about Denver and Tebow today and it was clearly worth listening to. Denver move back into round one to get the Florida QB. Cutler and Marshall are out, Tebow and Thomas are in. Clausen is still on the board and this has been a drama filled first round.




#26 Arizona: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
Bit of a surprise that Williams lasted this long considering the value of 3-4 nose tackles. Still, this has been a draft full of surprises. Nice value for Arizona who continue their scheme transition. Tebow-mania almost leads ESPN to forget the Cardinals are on the clock.




#27 New England: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
Interesting choice for the Patriots. They've passed on Odrick and Kindle to add to their secondary.




#28 Miami: Jared Odrick (DE, Penn State)
The Dolphins got a guy they might have considered at #12, they acquired Brandon Marshall and move up in round two. A+.




#29 New York Jets: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
Rex Ryan loves defensive backs. They continue to add talent to their secondary.




#30 Detroit: Jahvid Best (RB, California)
The Lions trade back into round one to guarantee Jahvid Best. Durability issues aside, Best could be a star - he's a home run hitter. The price wasn't much to move up.




#31 Indianapolis: Jerry Hughes (DE, TCU)
The Colts can't really go wrong with their infrastructure. Hughes is a nice addition who could thrive in that defensive scheme.



#32 New Orleans: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
He's capable of being very good but makes too many mistakes. Back-to-back first round cornerbacks for the Saints after Malcolm Jenkins in 2008 - does he go to safety now?

LIVE: 2010 NFL Draft

By Rob Staton
Welcome to the 2010 NFL Draft. Seahawks Draft Blog has live coverage of the event, so why not join us for instant analysis on every pick? As soon as it happens, we'll be talking about it here. Let me know your thoughts on anything that happens today in the comments section. There's still time to make a prediction or ask a question before the draft begins. Hope to hear from you.

Kip's Mock Draft

By Kip Earlywine
In an uncapped year with so many UFA's becoming RFA's, we've seen a higher than usual amount of trading so far this offseason. Seattle alone has been involved in 5 (!) trades already, and that's not even counting the Brandon Marshall saga. I've never understood why NFL GM's have hesitated to make trades in the past, but because of unique circumstances, teams have awakened to this concept. At least for one offseason. And I think that's awesome... its a useful tool for GMs and fun for fans who are bored during the offseason.

In my very first post at SDB, I talked about my hopes and expectations for the new front office. Part of that was a FO that was aggressive and made a lot of trades. I haven't been the biggest fan of some of the deals, but I do appreciate the effort.

The fever pitch of trading around the NFL seems to be carrying over to the draft- the one time of year trades are actually common in the NFL. In my 20 years of following the NFL, I can't remember a time when there were more rumors flying about draft day trades. The latest rumor is the Cowboys moving up with the 49ers for Earl Thomas, and of course earlier this week we heard about the Eagles looking to move up for a top safety as well. Before that it was Marshawn Lynch being shopped by Buffalo. And of course there are now the rumors about Big Ben. Can you imagine Big Ben in a Seahawks uniform? Apparently the Seahawks are one of the 7 teams to make the call to Pittsburgh. And by the way, this could be serious. Something big is happening.

The point I'm making is... expect a lot of trades, maybe even a historic number of trades this weekend. Its completely conceivable that neither the 6th or 14th picks in the 2010 draft will be made by the Seahawks. As such, I don't expect this mock to be even the slightest bit accurate, but I will present what I believe to be the most likely first 32 picks of the draft... in some kind of magical alternate reality where no team trades its pick and all 32 teams pick as planned. Here we go:




#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)

Something fishy is going on in St. Louis. Normally the team that picks first overall makes their choice days before the draft and signs their guy to a contract. Yet here we are, and the Rams haven't said a lick about what they will do. We've been assuming that the Rams will select Bradford for some time now, but their last minute trade of former high first round DT Adam Carriker to the 'Skins certainly raises eyebrows, especially with the team probably wishing they could take Suh/McCoy if not for a need at QB. Suh going #1 is certainly not out of the question at this stage.

My theory is that the Rams are in very serious discussions with some team, perhaps Washington or Cleveland, about trading this pick. I think Bradford will probably go 1st overall, but it may not be the Rams who take him.




#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
Jeff Backus is a mediocre left tackle who is getting up there in age and nearing the end of his contract. That said, without a trade, I think Detroit goes BPA here. Maybe a trade happens, but for the purposes of this mock, one doesn't, and Suh is the pick.




#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
This one is slam dunk if McCoy reaches #3.




#4 Washington: Trent Williams (LT, Oklahoma)
Tip of the hat to Rob, because now another Rob, Rob Rang, is saying that Washington has Williams higher on their draft board than Okung.




#5 Kansas City: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
I think KC will very seriously consider Okung and Davis here. Brandon Albert is NOT a tackle, and he proved that by giving up a whopping 9 sacks last year. However, there are several teams, most notably the Eagles, that desire to trade up for Eric Berry. I think KC is the one who pulls the trigger. Eric Berry will go here- either to a team that trades up or to Kansas City for themselves.




#6 Seattle: Russell Okung (LT, Oklahoma State)
Our handy source mentioned that Berry and Williams highlight the Seahawks options at #6, but did so under the assumption that both DTs and Okung would be gone. In this scenario, Berry and Williams are off the board, but Okung is surprisingly available. This isn't the pick I'd do (Derrick Morgan), but I think its the most likely pick in a stand pat scenario. Seattle will try like crazy to trade this pick. Don't expect a selection until the last second.




#7 Cleveland: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
A Mike Holmgren led team has never drafted a 1st round QB before, and Holmgren recently made unflattering remarks about Clausen (possible smokescreen), but its clear that Delhomme and Wallace are not the future in Cleveland. I think Holmgren has his eye fixed on Colt McCoy in round 2, but it wouldn't shock me if he takes Jimmy Clausen, either.




#8 Oakland: Bruce Campbell (LT, Maryland)
Campbell satisfies Al Davis' need for a combine hero while also filling an area of urgent need.




#9 Buffalo: Bryan Bulaga (LT, Iowa)
This pick comes down to Anthony Davis vs. Bryan Bulaga. I chose Bulaga because he's been linked to Buffalo a lot more than Davis has.




#10 Jacksonville: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
I strongly expect Jacksonville to trade down from this spot, to maneuver in such a way that they can take Tim Tebow later. But if a trade doesn't materialize, I think Derrick Morgan makes the most sense. An incoming 30 year old DE fresh off knee surgery is not going to block the best DE in the draft from coming to the pass-rush-neediest team in the NFL.




#11 Denver: Rolando McClain (ILB, Alabama)
Denver needs help on defense, their entire defense pretty much. This pick comes down to Haden, (Earl) Thomas, McClain, and Williams. I chose McClain because he strikes me as a centerpiece player, a good start for a new defense.




#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
Miami also needs help with their 3-4 defense. A lot of teams need NT help in this draft, and Williams is one of the very few available.




#13 San Francisco: Anthony Davis (LT, Rutgers)
San Francisco is happy with their left tackle, but could use a good right tackle. I think Davis is best in a pure man scheme, but the 49ers zone is hardly a pure one, and Davis has the ability to be a pro-bowl RT.




#14 Seattle: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
Seattle will try to trade this pick, and since Earl Thomas is still available, that might not be very difficult. However, in the unlikely event that a trade is not made here, Joe Haden has been mentioned by the source as a top option at #14 and he's still here (although sadly, Derrick Morgan is not). CB is a big need for the Seahawks, and while Haden's probably a better fit in man cover, he's still a great value here and a rock solid pick.




#15 New York Giants: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, U of Southern Florida)
The Giants are looking to add talent to their defensive line. I'm a big critic of JPP, but New York is a relatively good landing spot as their need isn't cripplingly immediate and he'll have a little extra time to develop.




#16 Tennessee: Brandon Graham (DE, Michigan)
(Edit: changed from Everson Griffen to Brandon Graham) Almost every mock I've seen this year has the Titans taking a DE at #16. Graham is arguably the best pure pass rusher in the draft, and won't last much longer than this.




#17 San Francisco: CJ Spiller (RB, Clemson)
Frank Gore's milage is starting to add up, and Spiller is just too good to pass on here. I really expect the 49ers to trade one of their picks, especially this one if Spiller is still around.




#18 Pittsburgh: Taylor Mays (SS, USC)
Pittsburgh needs a strong safety to pair with former Trojan Troy Polamalu.




#19 Atlanta: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
Atlanta takes the best corner available here. There isn't a clear favorite, so I'll go with Kyle Wilson since he's been on the rise.




#20 Houston: Ryan Matthews (QB, Oklahoma)
This one is a pretty obvious pick. Houston is hurting at RB, and Mathews isn't just a solid RB, but he can carry the load- a rarity in this draft class.




#21 Cincinnati: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Cincy could go a few directions here. I read on a Bengals blog that corner is quietly a big need for the Bengals.




#22 New England: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
Another decently obvious pick, Kindle is a good value here and the Pats badly need pass rush help.




#23 Green Bay: Charles Brown (LT, USC)
Green Bay needs tackle help pretty badly, and they run zone. Some teams rank Saffold higher than Brown, but I'm guessing Brown probably goes before Saffold does.




#24 Philadelphia: Sean Wetherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I seriously doubt Philly stays here. They will almost certainly trade up. But in the event they do not, I think they'll address LB here and Weatherspoon is a good fit that has been linked to Philly fairly often.




#25 Baltimore: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Baltimore just traded for Anquan Boldin, but consider that Boldin is 30, that they only paid a 3rd and 4th rounder for him, and that WR typically require 2+ years of development time. Just like how the Housh signing shouldn't have prevented Seattle from drafting Crabtree, if Baltimore is smart, they will capitalize on the substantial value for WR here with either Dez Bryant or Demaryius Thomas. I lean towards Thomas for two reasons- Bryant has been flat out crossed off many teams big boards and secondly because Thomas is a bit of a project, which fits well into the Boldin window. Baltimore has a bit of a history of drafting toolsy WR, and when Matt McGuire scouted Thomas, one of his comps was Michael Clayton.




#26 Arizona: Rodger Saffold (LT, Indiana)
Arizona could very well consider Dez Bryant here, but I think they address their overarching need instead with the last drop of upper tier LT talent left.




#27 Dallas: Mike Iupati (G, Idaho)
This one has been in the books for a while. Iupati is a great fit for Dallas' scheme and needs. Value is about right too.




#28 San Diego: Jahvid Best (RB, Cal)
This was a tough pick to call, but I'm convinced that San Diego is desperate for RB help. They will definitely be players to trade up and a very likely trading partner for Seattle at #14. In the event they stay put, they will take the best remaining RB, who in this case is Jahvid Best.




#29 New York Jets: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
New York traded for Santonio Holmes, but Holmes is hardly a sure thing. Bryant is one of the biggest bargains in the draft, and the Jets have shown through their acquisitions that "diva" WR do not bother them.




#30 Minnesota: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
The Williams Wall will soon need to be rebuilt. Price is a productive player with good untapped potential, if he can learn some pass rush moves.




#31 Indianapolis: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
Jeff Saturday is getting up there in age (35), and Pouncey is arguably BPA here anyway.




#32 New Orleans: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Saints had a pretty good pass rush last year, but they could certainly use more help on the defensive line. Sedrick Ellis can't stay healthy, so expect DT to be a position of strong consideration.