Monday, 23 November 2009

Seahawks picking sixth?

Mathematics isn't my strongest subject, but I've had a look at where the Seahawks might be picking if the season ended today. By my calculation, they'd be selecting sixth overall. The teams ahead would be Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit and Washington. The Redskins, Chiefs and Raiders have the same record as Seattle, but based on strength of schedule only Washington would be ahead. The Titans will also have the same record if they lose against Houston tonight. Please feel free to correct me if I've gone wrong anywhere.

I'm going to update my mock draft in the next few days and by then, I'll have had the time to work out a full order. If they were picking this early, they'd have a shot at the top defensive lineman (clearly the strength of the 2010 draft). Let me know what you think in the comments section or email


Michael said...

I would applaud a DL if it is one of the top 2 DT or the top DE. Otherwise I would hope we get a OL or a QB. It is important that we spend these picks on the high impact positions OL, DL and QB. SS and RBs can be had later in the draft. We need homeruns to get this franchise back on the right path.

Patrick said...

I couldn't agree more. As much as it pains me to say, because I would love to grab Jahvid Best with Denver's pick, I know we no longer are in the position to grab based on luxury. We have needs, glaring needs! I'd love to grab that RB of the future, but honestly if our defense isn't any better, we'll probably be abandoning the run more often than not.

If we are picking 6th, I honestly would not be very dissapointed. I think it comes down to either a QB or DT.

Let's see...

Let's say Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit and Washington pick in that order. If I had to guess at this point, I'd probably say:

Tampa Bay- Ndamukong Suh
St. Louis- Probably a QB (I'd say Clausen)
Cleaveland- Either a QB or Eric Berry
Detroit- Either Berry, Okung or Gerald McCoy
Washington- Probably a QB (Either Bradford, Locker, or Clausen) or maybe OL (Although I can't see anything but a QB with Campbell more than likely gone)

If this is how it pans out, we could easily be facing a choice: A QB like Bradford or Gerald McCoy?

This would be an excellent position to be in. I honestly think if Tim Ruskell is still our GM, the pick will be McCoy.

If Homlgren takes the job in Cleaveland, I would not be surprised if he selects Bradford. He has openly said he is high on Bradford. Just for kicks, if we did hire Homlgren back, I would probably say our chances for Bradford would increase.

Based on your math, do you have an idea about Denver's pick? Right now I have it somewhere between 18-25, based on the 6-4 record. I'm not sure how the tie breakers really work though so I'm not. I do think however, there's a good chance they lose to the Giants this week and fall down to 6-5.

Michael said...

I'm betting Denver ends up 10-6 at best. That would put them in the low 20s I believe. If Best falls there it might not be a bad idea to grab him assuming we return to the OL or DL with our 2nd round pick. I love the idea of getting that guard you were touting from FL with our 2nd rndr. We ened to be aggressive in addressing one side of our team. My vote would be offense since we have room for our Defense to grow based on youth.

Rob Staton said...

The thing is, the Seahawks have invested so much in defense (including the defensive line) you don't want to have to invest yet another high pick and big salary on that side of the ball when the offense is clearly in a critical condition. However, the Seahawks pass rush is so bad - clearly it remains a huge need. For whatever reason, the guys on the roster aren't getting it done. Is it scheme? Is it talent? Either way, they have to consider defensive line early because right now they can't get to any quarterback. Favre, Warner, Manning, Cutler, Romo - they've all had a field day. At the same time, you can't fight the board. It is what it is, and the strength is on the d-line this year. I can't think of many offensive prospects that warrant the 6th overall pick.

Rodney Hudson - the offensive lineman from Florida State who I rate very highly, suffered a knee strain last week and missed Florida State's game with Maryland on Saturday. It's a blow, if he's going to declare I think everything needs to be 100% with him. They play Florida on Saturday, I'm hoping he can take part in that one. He's good enough to warrant first round consideration.

Patrick - I'll be surprised if Eric Berry and Jimmy Clausen go in the top ten. They might be touted as such in a lot of mock drafts, but I don't think it will happen. I could be wrong, but I've seen nothing to suggest that will be the case. Russell Okung shouldn't go that early, but such is the dearth of talent on the offensive line, someone might reach to take him.

1stHill said...

I think Detroit has to draft a OT with their 1st round pick. They have a ton of money invested in their QB Matt Stafford and they need to protect that investment with a solid LT. They have a lot of needs but I could see them reaching for a OT. A LT would also help improve their run game, which is not as good as it was last year.

Rob Staton said...

1stHill - I agree with the method, but I have a couple of thoughts. Firstly, I don't think there's a LT that warrants high consideration. Detroit chose not to take Michael Oher and draft a tight end based on BPA. Will they over draft for a Russell Okung? I'm sceptical.

Secondly, Jim Schwartz built a good defense in Tennessee because of one big DT in the middle who stood out. He more than anyone knows the value of having a guy like that. If he is in position to draft Suh or McCoy, I think it's a done deal. He'll probably consider drafting a DE too, because they have no pass rush. They won't fight the board to take any tackle.

Michael said...

This draft for the hawks is critical, regardless of who is making the choices. There is a rumbling discontent from fans that I have not heard since Behring (spit) years. We need to do something to reinvigorate the fan base or we will be in some long term trouble. Paul Allen or Tod Liewieke need to pay attention and make sure we hit this draft out of the park.

Rob Staton said...

I think the fans want to see something on the field that brings cause for optomism. The Seahawks are world champions at building hype with their moves in the off season. Through 11 weeks, there's little evidence this team has progressed anywhere on the team. For the most part, the team continues to regress (see a franchise low 4 rushing yards, the second time this year that 'record' has been set). You can make the best draft picks every year, you can get 'A' grades from the pundits. But eventually it comes down to what you do on a Sunday, and the last two years Seattle haven't done enough.

1stHill said...

Rob, you make a good case for Detriot taking a DT. I would hate to see Suh and McCoy off the board if we had the 6th overall pick. I hope Schwartz buys into the Eric Berry hype and selects him, so we have the option of selecting Gerald McCoy.

1stHill said...

Who would you select for the Seahawks if the following players were available with the 6th overall pick?

LT Charles Brown (USC) : If he puts on another 10 pounds of good weight getting him up to 305 lbs then using the 6th pick on a bona fide LT seems wise. This would allow us to move Locklear back to RT and possibly move the struggling Ray Willis to OG. If Charles Brown gets up to 305 lbs then he is the guy I want. If he does not put on 10 healthy pounds, then that might be a sign he is not willing to put in the work to get better, and he is not that dedicated to football. If he is still under 300 lbs come draft day then I would not select him with the 6th overall pick.


DT Gerald McCoy (Oklahoma) : McCoy could be as good as Tommie Harris was in his prime. The thought of McCoy playing alongside Mebane ( a very underrated player ) is scary, at least it would be for opposing teams. McCoy and Mebane creating pressure up the middle should improve our secondary and our defensive ends. Mebane has shown in the past, when he was playing at 315-320 lbs, that he has some quickness and can take on double-teams. That would leave McCoy and his exceptional quickness one-on-one against an OG.


QB Bradford (Oklahoma) : Bradford would get a year or two learning how to be a pro QB, on the field and in the locker room, by watching Hasselbeck. QB is my least favorite option if these three players were available. We need to find Hasselbeck’s replacement but I would rather we shore up the offensive and defensive lines this year and then target a QB in next year’s draft.

Michael said...

I doubt McCoy or Suh will be available out of the top five. Also I think that teams will wise up and not draft Berry or Mays in the top ten. Unless I am wrong both Ronnie Lott Troy Pala(hair guy) were drafted in the 2nd half of the 1st and Ed Reed was the 31st pick. It is stupid to draft a safety that high. When the rubber hits the road GMs will choose DT/DE/OT or QBs with those picks (with the possible exception of our GM.)

Once the juniors declare and the all star games are played, I think both Mays and Berry will fall to the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd round where they have good value.

Rob Staton said...

1st Hill - given those three options I would take Gerald McCoy and by some distance. He's Tommie Harris-esque and you could just plug him into that defensive line for the next few years and enjoy. He consistently makes plays in the backfield because he's so good at getting free. He has an excellent repetoire. I think in that situation you'd put Mebane back to the one technique (asking a lot of him, but needs must) and you'd adopt an approach similar to the Colts where you say, "We're going to come at you every play, stop us." Sure, you're susceptible to draw plays. I'd take that risk for consistent pressure up the middle on every down. They'd take so much attention, it'd free up room on the edge. Your defensive line in general upgrades dramatically with McCoy's presence.

As Michael says though, it's difficult to imagine him leaving the top five picks. He could go first overall.

I'd also agree 100% with Michael's other excellent point. Right now, the hype around Eric Berry is just that - hype. I will be very surprised if he goes as high as many are predicting and will be practically stunned if anyone passes on Gerald McCoy to draft Berry. It would not surprise me in the slightest if Berry and Mays fell somewhat as Michael added.

Michael said...

Hey Rob,

I just read an article comparing Colt McCoy and Jerrod Johnson. I was wondering if you had a chance to take a look of him this season. He's stats are mighty impressive considering that he doesn't have the talent around him as the other quarterbacks. Thank you for your work btw, love reading your stuff!


Michael said...

I'm a different Michael btw haha

Anonymous said...

Rob, I'm constantly amazed at how many people think a safety is going top 5. None of the great safeties in the league now went top 10. Also, we have a QB propsect in Teel. Why does everyone act like we need a QB next year? Barring career ending injury, it will be Hass. If we have #6, I'd vote for trading down, if possible. Maybe more than once. Regain or 3rd rounder, and maybe another 2nd or 3rd. We have so many needs that one player won't make the difference, and rookies rarely make a big impact anyway. Trading down could give us 2nd and 3rd rounders with which to address CB and S. I like Spiller and Morgan in the 1st. OT and/or OG in the 2nd, and CB and FS in the 3rd. That could go a long way toward a championship team 2-3 years from now. If we want another QB, take another late round flier on someone to compete with Teel. I like Max Hall from BYU. Reminds me of Jeff Garcia. Small but a gamer.

bob said...

If we take McCoy, I'll be mad. I know there's no such thing as a "sure thing" but he's a gamble. I just don't see what others see.

I fully support trading up for Suh. He's a "cornerstone" type of player. He isn't normal. I know there's the stupid R salary cap and all (reason I wanted to trade down last year) but don't care when it comes to Reggie White, Jr (and I know that's a terribly BOLD statement --- IMO Reggie is/was the greatest D player I have ever seen).

Rob, please let me know when you're sick of the "Suh" references and I'll leave. I love that guy and he needs to be a Hawk. Last year, all I wanted to do was trade down to take Moreno or Oher and it didn't happen (and I was mad). And when we couldn't trade down, I still wanted either over Curry. Granted, Moreno would stink behind our terrible OL.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the fine blog Rob & Kyle.

Realistically, the Seahawks will probably win 3 more games and finish 6-10. Denver will probably finish 9-7. This would most likely give the Seahawks two selections in the teens of the first round.

Sadly all the real McCoy's will be gone by then. Fortunately with all of the Seahawks needs they will be free to choose the best players available with one and two and not have to shell out the big bucks for a top five.

What does the 2010 draft class from 10-20 look like?

The Vikes have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and put on a clinic on how a domanant defensive line can destroy an offense.

The Hawks are not as bad as they played yesterday and will rebound next week... I hope.

bob said...

It's easy to "rebound" against the Rams. At least I hope it is.

Trade up for Suh!

ivotuk said...

Woohoo it's my weekend! I'm going to spend the next three days going over the games I have recorded and looking for my dream LT :)

I have 2 game with Bulaga, one against Minnesota and one against Indiana, Oregon V AZ, Kansas V Nebraska, Uconn V ND, Virginia V Clemson and WV v S Fla.

After doing some reading I am really intrigued by Anthony Davis of Rutgers. He is a big guy and has some pretty good stats reflected by Rutger running game and minimal sacks allowed. I'll have to see if I can DL a game somewhere.

Rob, what would be a good game to watch that would pit Bulaga against some talent?

And could you tell me what good prospects you think are worth looking at in the games I listed?

I'll be back later to pore over your site!

Ray :)

Rob Staton said...

Ray, for starters thanks for the email recently. Apologies for not getting back to you (and anyone else over the last 3-4 days) having been working away from home during the weekend covering English soccer I haven't had a chance to reply. I'm working on another game tonight and have to set off in a few moments to do some pre-match interviews, so I'll try to respond tomorrow evening.

With regard to Bulaga, I've seen the Indiana game and he was very solid. He over powered the defensive lineman with relative ease and generally was very productive in the running game. I've seen parts of the Minnesota game, but I'd welcome an opinion on how he did overall.

For the others - I'd recommend sitting an enjoying the Oregon v Arizona game as a fan of football, because it's great entertainment. Let me know your thoughts on Ndamukong Suh (Nebraska), Jimmy Clausen (ND), CJ Spiller (Clemson) and Jason Pierre-Paul (USF).

I have mixed views on Anthony Davis. I did a review on him which I've linked to below:

Annonymous - I think the best value in the 2010 draft is likely to come between picks 10-20. There won't be much difference in quality between the guy taken 6th overall and the guy taken 15th. Realistically guys like Spiller, Haden, Brown, Williams, Best, Hughes, McClain and Pierre-Paul will go there and in some cases, I think that's tremendous value compared to the Okung's and Bryant's who will probably (unjustly) go earlier.

Bob - I never get tired of hearing about Ndamukong Suh. The guy is a joy to watch and would be a tremendous asset to the Seahawks if they're lucky enough to have a shot at drafting him.

Annonymous - very true about safety's going early. The simple fact is, bad teams pick early in the draft. They're usually franchises that have just had a coaching change or are in the midst of a big rebuild. Teams like that look at the premium positions - QB, OL, DL, CB. For prospects at positions that don't often get taken early, like safety, the guy has to be flat out elite with hardly any flaws. In my opinion, Eric Berry is not as good as some will have you believe.

Mike - I haven't seen much of Johnson unfortunately, but I will try to get some tape and have something on the blog asap.

ivotuk said...

Thanks for the link, not sure how I missed that story! :) I'll see if I can download some Anthony Davis