Tuesday, 5 January 2010

Updated mock draft: 5th January

I've compiled an updated mock draft to coincide with the confirmed draft order for picks 1-20. From a Seahawks perspective, we still don't know the identity of the team's new GM so projections at this stage remain complete guess work. I will publish a further updated mock draft after the deadline passes for underclassmen to declare on January 15th.

Picks 21-32 are subject to change following the playoffs. The rest of the draft order is now confirmed. The Seahawks will pick 6th, 14th and 40th overall. Don't forget to let me know your thoughts in the comments section or email rob@seahawksdraftblog.com




#1 St. Louis: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
There's no obvious quarterback candidate to go first overall, so St. Louis take the best player with the opening selection. Suh is a dominant force with elite potential.




#2 Detroit: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
Jim Schwartz had a lot of success as a defensive coordinator in Tennessee thanks to an elite defensive tackle. McCoy is a close second if Suh is the best player in the draft.




#3 Tampa Bay: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Buccs' biggest needs are on the defensive line and the offensive skill positions. Morgan solves one problem as a relentless edge rusher for the teams' 4-3 scheme.




#4 Washington: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
Mike Shanahan will be the Skins' new coach and expect him to target either a new quarterback or an offensive lineman.




#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
The Chiefs are committed to creating a strong 3-4 defense but lack that presence at inside linebacker. McClain can be an impact player for Kansas City.




#6 Seattle: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
Davis is raw but could have Ryan Clady type potential. He needs to improve his second level blocking, but has the most upside in a weaker tackle class than previous years.




#7 Cleveland: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Mike Holmgren inherits a great offensive line, but he needs some playmakers and direction at quarterback. With Bradford off the board, he takes Bryant.




#8 Oakland: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
Campbell has unique size and and athleticism, something that will undoubtedly interest Al Davis. He's had injuries though, that's the potential red flag.




#9 Buffalo: Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
The Bills are going to name an offensive minded head coach. With the top two offensive tackles gone, they could take Mallett - he remains the X-Factor of this draft.




#10 Jacksonville: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
The Jaguars will rebuild their secondary in the off season. Haden is without doubt a top ten talent and would present great value here to fill a big need.




#11 Denver: Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State)
This fills the Broncos biggest need as a five technique 3-4 end. Don't be surprised if they target a receiver like Damian Williams if Brandon Marshall departs.




#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
The Dolphins priority appears to be finding a nose tackle for their 3-4 scheme. This is a reach, but one that fills a vital need.




#13 San Francisco: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The 49ers could use an upgrade in the secondary. Berry could end up playing cornerback long term, but he's a playmaking safety that will interest Mike Singletary.




#14 Seattle: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
The Seahawks need a playmaker on offense. Nobody on the roster has Spiller's speed or ability to put points on the board - whether as a runner, receiver or return specialist.




#15 New York Giants: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
The additions to New York's defensive line last off season didn't have the desired effect. Price is a three technique with real potential.




#16 San Francisco: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
Bulaga is a right tackle in the NFL. The 49ers would be able to plug him in from day one knowing both tackle positions are sorted for years.




#17 Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
The Titans should invest in their defensive line this off season. Pierre-Paul has huge upside as a 4-3 defensive end.




#18 Pittsburgh: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
Thomas could be the best all round safety in the draft. He has eight interceptions, but tackles much better than Eric Berry.




#19 Atlanta: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Falcons have three primary needs - to improve their defensive line, linebacker group and secondary. If Bruce Carter (LB, North Carolina) declares, he could be the pick instead.




#20 Houston: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
The Texans have some playmakers, but they need to keep improving their offensive line. Iupati could be a once-in-a-decade type interior lineman, with a unique size and speed combination that fits any scheme.




#21 New York Jets: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
Damian Williams is an option if Braylon Edwards isn't retained. He worked well with Mark Sanchez at USC. If Edwards stays, New York could look to upgrade at right tackle with Williams.




#22 Baltimore: Damian Williams (WR, USC)
The Ravens will undoubtedly try to bring in a receiver during the off season. Williams has fantastic value here and could go much higher.




#23 Arizona: Ricky Sapp (LB, Clemson)
Arizona are still piecing together their 3-4 scheme and Sapp could be a stand out OLB.




#24 Green Bay: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
I'm not sold on Okung as a top ten pick. He was beaten badly twice in the fourth quarter against Ole Miss, once leading to a severe hit on the quarterback. He would've been a late first round pick as an underclassmen, nothing this year has proved otherwise for me.




#25 Cincinnati: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
Bad quarterback play and inconsistent hands has hurt Benn's stock, but this is still a guy touted as a top 15 pick at the start of the year.




#26 New England: Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU)
Hughes is a prototype 3-4 OLB. It's impossible to predict what the Patriots will do in a draft, but their biggest need is finding a pass rush specialist.




#27 Philadelphia: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
Dunlap did well in his comeback against Cincinnati. He has plenty of time to repair his stock and could go much higher than this.




#28 Dallas: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
This seems like a good fit. If Mays makes it past Al Davis (and reports are already saying the Raiders love the USC defensive back) then he probably won't fall past Dallas and out of round one.




#29 Minnesota: Donovan Warren (CB, Michigan)
This could be a landing spot for Jimmy Clausen and if he falls this far, you have to anticipate teams trading up to get him. The Vikings haven't got many needs, but cornerback is arguably one of the highest.




#30 San Diego: Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
The Chargers are my AFC pick for the Superbowl, so I think they'll pick later than this. Receiver is somewhat of a need and LaFell deserves first round consideration.




#31 New Orleans: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Jeremy Shockey hasn't had the hoped impact for the Saints. This isn't a big need, but Gresham is too talented to fall out of round one. This is for value and provides Drew Brees with another talented weapon.




#32 Indianapolis Colts: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
Brown has great potential, but he's playing at 290lbs. If he gets bigger before the combine and maintains his athleticism, he'll go earlier than this.


No Jimmy Clausen?
I still can't find a place for Clausen in my first round mock draft. I wrote about this in greater detail back in November, but I remain unconvinced he'll be a top pick in 2010.

68 comments:

da34shadow said...

I don't think that Berry will fall that far. He seems to be too talented to drop from the top 10. The real wildcards right now are the teams in flux. What are the Browns going to do? Will the Redskins be looking to draft a QB? Who is in charge of the Seahawks? Will the Bucs change coaches? Is Jacksonville destined to draft a WR in the #10 spot no matter what?

Anonymous said...

Top 4 are my thoughts exactly. It goes way off after that. My top 10

5 berry
6 davis (haden very close)
7 bryant (haden very close)
8 mays (okung very close)
9 okung
10 haden (tebow close)

14 iupati
40 dwyer/mcdaniel

Rob Staton said...

da34shadow - I've voiced my concerns about Berry fairly often on this blog. I think he's over rated. That doesn't mean he's not a very good safety or that he'll have a good career, but he isn't the 'once in a decade' safety that some are suggesting. I've watched considerable tape on Berry this season and his tackling is a real issue for me, as is the fact he's not the biggest. He's lined up at CB and S this year but only has two interceptions - and it wasn't like people were avoiding throwing in his direction. I'll be very surprised if he goes in the top five picks.

Safety's generally don't go 'that' early in drafts because they're a bit of a luxury for bad teams. I've got defensive lineman and a quarterback in my top four for a reason - real value positions that you build a team around. Berry can be a playmaker, but his all round game isn't, in my opinion, 'elite'. Teams picking in the teens will feel more comfortable taking him - which is why I have him pinned with the 49ers. They specifically will look for upgrades in the secondary - particularly someone who can make big plays. San Francisco also own two first rounders in that range, so can fill another need elsewhere too. They're also not in as critical a position as the teams picking in the top 5-10 having finished 8-8 during the season.

Ralphy said...

From the KC paper today:

Gambling with a premium pick hardly seems the style of Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli.

It wouldn’t be a gamble for them to pick Berry, a safety from Tennessee who some scouts believe could do for a defense what Troy Polamalu has done for the Steelers or Ed Reed for the Ravens.

The Chiefs have Mike Brown and Jon McGraw, both 30 or older, starting at safety. Jarrad Page is on injured reserve, and the other Chiefs safeties are developmental prospects at best.

“He’s that same kind of caliber,” said the NFL scout, comparing Berry to Polamalu and Reed.

“He’s a special player. He’s a playmaker. You can count on him for that. If you need a center fielder back there, he would be a good investment.”

Rob Staton said...

Annonymous - You say picks 5-10 are 'way off' but you've still got Davis and Haden where I do. Mays to Oakland is a possibility because we all know how Al Davis drafts. As I've mentioned above, I'll be surprised if Berry goes top five. Russell Okung is over rated in my opinion, he's a late first round pick and I think that will become true on draft day.

Iupati might be my favorite prospect in the whole draft. I was very tempted to pin him with Seattle at #14 even though they go offensive line at #6. I think the Seahawks would rather be picking later than #6 to perhaps justify... as an example... a Spiller/Iupati combo. I'm not sure the value at #6 is any better in terms of talent than it is at #14. The Seahawks need a playmaker like Spiller, but Iupati could be a rare gem in the interior line.

Ralphy said...

I was at the Oklahoma State vs. Texas game and I agree with your thoughts on Okung. Everyone points to how few sacks he gives up but he had a mobile QB and it seems he gets called for holding a ton.

The player that blew me away that game was Earl Thomas. He was noticeably faster than everyone out there and was in on every play. I have no doubts that he will be the top safety from this draft class. He's an amazing player.

Rob Staton said...

Ralph - I will not deny that Berry is a 'center fielder' type safety who can make plays with the ball in his hands. He diagnoses well, reacts superbly and breaks on the ball. When he has possession, he's a threat to score.

But that's why I have him going #13 because in all fairness his size, tackling and coverage skills against college TE's and bigger wide outs is poor. I keep hearing these comparisons to Ed Reed - but I don't see it other than the fact Berry has scored some touchdowns in college. It's a lazy comparison really and we should remember where Reed actually went in the draft. Reed is a much better tackler than Berry, who misses too many tackles for my liking. He's been physically embarassed by bigger running backs like Ben Tate and had another indifferent display against Virginia Tech. I certainly haven't seen any games where Berry has 'won it' for his team this year - but that's the thing people keep saying he can do.

I know it goes against consensus opinion and that a lot of other people are hyping Berry up to the max. However - I can only give my fairest opinion on him. It's based on game tape (I've archived every article on the blog so you can read my breakdowns of Berry/Tennessee), I have no agenda here. I just don't think he will be a top ten pick for the reasons I've given. If I'm wrong, I'll hold my hands up and admit so.

Rob Staton said...

Ralphy - completely agree on Earl Thomas. He's the top safety in this class for me. He's excellent in coverage (eight interceptions this year) but is a superior tackles to Berry and is better in run support. If I had to choose between the two, I take Earl Thomas.

Rob Staton said...

I'll add this to the mock too...

It wouldn't surprise me if Tampa Bay took a serious look at Dez Bryant. They've invested a lot in Josh Freeman being a success, they need to give him a legitimate #1 target. It might be a reach, but it's somewhat justified given the implications for coach and GM at that franchise.

That would potentially push Derrick Morgan into Seattle's lap. Cleveland would potentially take Joe Haden in that scenario, Buffalo would have the choice between a QB (Mallett, Clausen) or a LT (Davis). Jacksonville may well consider CJ Spiller in that circumstance and the Seahawks might be in a better position to draft Mike Iupati at #14 with Spiller off the board.

Savage said...

I've been saying for a couple weeks now that I thought Bryant was a very strong possibility for TB. They have nothing at WR if Antonio Bryant leaves.

Some more reason that they could go that direction is they were burned by Gaines Adams a couple years back and maybe be a little gun shy on pulling the trigger on a DE again.

The Hawks need to take a QB, LT or DE with the #6 pick. Right now Morgan is by far the best prospect at those posistions. Bradford has alot of question marks and taking a LT that high I think may be reaching with this years class.

Another thing to think about is if Berry falls to #14. It could very well happen and the Hawks, assuming Grant is cut, do not have a starting safety on the roster. Milloy is a FA and Babs is not starter caliber.

Rob Staton said...

I expect Deon Grant will remain a Seahawk, probably having taken a cut in salary. He's apparently set to earn around $4m in 2010, but they'll work on that. He did well this year.

If Seattle maintain their tampa-2 system and take advice from Monte Kiffin again (he recommended coordinator Gus Bradley) then Berry is a realistic option. Seattle sent scouts to the Chick-fil-A Bowl, we know that. However, this team has more pressing needs than an upgrade at safety. It doesn't mean it won't happen though. We'll have to wait and see who the new GM is.

Mike Kelly said...

Personally, a nice boring draft of Davis/Lupati would make my year. Lupati could be the Mea Culpa for the Hutch Fiasco.

Rob;

Every draft there seems to be a player that flies up the draft board from nowhere (Vernon Davis) and some talent that drops further than they should (Michael Oher/Crabtree/Warren Sapp/Randy Moss etc..,) Whom would you peg as this years dramatic risers and fallers based on what you already know. My dramatic riser is Dunlap because you cannot teach size. My dramatic drop is Mays because he is likely the 3rd best safety available.

Rob Staton said...

Good call on Mays. I think people will probably be surprised if Eric Berry drops out of the top ten as I've projected here. Dunlap was touted as a top ten pick during the season and he has plenty of time to repair his stock. Charles Brown can also rise if he adds weight. Donovan Warren and Damian Williams could go earlier than expected, likewise Earl Thomas.

Anonymous said...

Rob,

I've got a question for you. So a lot of people have been talking about Okung and Berry and saying "I think they'll go higher than where you had them go" and you've been saying "they're overrated" Now, I totally agree with you that they are overrated, which only means they "shouldn't" be drafted quite so early, not that they won't. My only question to you is, is your mock based on where you think players should go based upon their talent (which would make overrated players drop), or where you think players will go based on teams who might take a player (even though they will regret that decisison later) who is overrated?

Griffin

Anonymous said...

Rob,

One more thing, we have a pretty fun problem to have come April. With the sixth pick we get the best OT, or a great D lineman, and with the fourteenth we either get Spiller or Iupati (the consolation prize that makes you smile).

Griffin

Rob Staton said...

It's a good question Griffin. Essentially, I try to devise my mocks based on how I think things will play out in actual, not based on my own opinions of prospects.

However, we're still a long way away from getting a real grasp of the 2010 draft. Mocks in January will generally look very different in April. For that purpose, they're more designed to create discussion and project possibilities.

I genuinly think teams at the very top of the board won't draft Berry and that he'll fall into the teens. I'm not the only one making those noises, although it may seem that way. Likewise for Okung. I can't guarantee I will be right on this, but I can only back what I've seen on the tape and give an honest opinion. I would expect teams to see the same things. I can't guarantee that will be the case though or that I'm going to be right on these issues - if I'm wrong I'll hold my hands up and admit so.

Rob Staton said...

(In response to the second comment) - as you say, it's a nice position to be in. I projected this mock based on Seattle shifting scheme ideas and how they've picked in the past. Davis isn't a traditional fit in the ZBS. Ryan Clady has fit into that scheme well in Denver and that's the kind of ceiling Davis could have. But under Ruskell, this team would never have drafted Davis. With a new GM, we don't know what to project right now. Likewise with Iupati - would Ruskell really draft a guard from Idaho? Probably not.

John_S said...

CJ Spiller is an intersting prospect. My concern about him is that he's too much like Reggie Bush. Yes he's a home run threat, but a RB who's more of a reciever than a RB.

I haven't seen too much tape of him. How is he running between the tackles? Does he run behind his pad? Is he Reggie where he dips out of bounds frequently.

Anonymous said...

hey rob what do you think of Ras I Dowling around 40 a bigger corner who can probably plays some safety as well.

Rob Staton said...

I don't see a comparison to Bush personally. He has tremendous burst and uses it to bounce wide or find a crease. Bush dances too much in the backfield as things develop, Spiller doesn't do that. I don't think he's more of a receiver than a runner, although he has great value in the passing game. I think he's shown this year he can work the middle and be patient waiting for the chance to break off the big gain.

Comparisons are being made on a positive front (Chris Johnson) and a negative (Reggie Bush) but in all honesty, Spiller doesn't really compare to either specifically other than the fact they all fast runners.

Rob Staton said...

Annonymous - Dowling says he's returning for his senior year as of 30th December. Things can change, but that's what he's saying. Bruce Carter (LB, North Carolina) did the same thing. He's a taller cornerback at 6'2" but I think he's a 4.5 runner rather than a 4.4. That can be a big difference. I'm not convinced he'd go in round one, he might have been told that by the draft committee which is why he's not declaring.

Patrick Jones said...

Rob,

I know this stops at 32, but where do you see the Hawks going at 40? I also noticed that SFO has two 1st rd picks also. Are they a trade down partner, would that work inside the division?

Rob Staton said...

The Seahawks and 49ers traded in the division with Jackson a couple of years ago. I'm not sure they'd do it to that extent at the top of round one though, but anything is possible. It depends if both teams see value in what they're doing.

If the draft falls the way I've pinned here in round one, I think the Seahawks would have to seriously consider adding to the defensive line. There would still be talent there - Romeus from Pittsburgh and Corey Wootten are still on the board.

Anonymous said...

Hey Rob, Can you put together a round 2?

Rob Staton said...

I've toyed with the idea of a round two for the last two projections. However, I'd rather wait until after the playoffs when a full draft order is confirmed and we've had the Senior Bowl. A first round projection at this stage is largely guess work - a round two would be a virtual lottery.

Rob Staton said...

Cameron Heyward (DE, Ohio State) is staying in college for his senior year - I had him going 11th overall to Denver.

Anonymous said...

If the '10 class of O-tackles is as tepid as you say, why waste a # 6 for someone who likely turns out to be average at best? Why not get a journeyman tackle in free agency as a bridge and draft a foundation player like Hayden with # 6. We need a CB that can compete with Fitzgerald and Boldin not to mention an ascendent Crabtree. Just wondering.

Thanks for the mock. A sliver of light in the comming darkness of the offseason.

Rob Staton said...

I don't think the class of o-tackles is necessarily 'tepid', but it's not as strong as previous years. It lacks that prospect that will go amongst the top 1-3 picks (Smith, Long, Thomas etc) and whilst there is clearly depth, I don't think it's of the same standard as last year and the previous year (which in fairness, were very good years on the offensive line).

With the mocks I've tried to look at different possibilities. There wouldn't be much point churning out the same mock over and over until April. Clearly the Seahawks are going to consider investing in a left tackle. If they have their pick of the class as projected in this latest mock, they can decide for themselves whether to select the best available or go in a different direction (like Joe Haden). Until I get a better look at Bruce Campbell, I'm putting Davis as the top OT prospect.

In a previous mock I had Haden paired with Seattle. He's an excellent cover corner with good recovery speed and he's physical - I like to see that. He's not small, but he's not big. Personally, I don't think Seattle will necessarily be able to cover the Fitzgerald's, Boldin's and Crabtree's by investing in better corners. If they have the time, they'll get open. The way to combat those elite receivers (and in Crabtree's case, potentially elite) is to get to the quarterback. Seattle hasn't done that enough, they need to get a better pass rush. For that reason, if Derrick Morgan and Joe Haden are there and it's a choice between the two, I take Morgan.

Anonymous said...

Good stuff. If we can't trade back, we go:

#6 morgan
#14 iupati
#40 brown/williams/bulaga (one of those many tackles should drop to us

starter on d and two oline that should start immediately. 4th rd get cb/s (cox/ghee/burnett/allen)

Anonymous said...

sorry that is from

E in F

Rob Staton said...

Getting Morgan and Iupati in the first round would solve two big needs. I'm watching Georgia Tech vs Iowa tonight (Morgan vs Bulaga) - should be interesting.

I still think the Seahawks need to find one playmaker from the three picks in the top forty. If they don't get one in the first round, they have to examine the possibility of taking someone like Jahvid Best early in round two.

Lenny James said...

Hey Rob, I believe we can find a above average LT with our 40th pick. Walter Jones was a later round selection. I hope we can aquire a second 2nd round or 3rd round pick via trade.(Patrick
Kerney, Deion branch, Julius Jones are expendable

Draft 2010

1a CJ Spiller
1b Lupati
2a best LT available.
3 Pass Rusher
4 Maybe Colt Mccoy.
I believe we should take Lupati before a LT. Lupati is an elite Gaurd who can probably play LT Vs. Drafting a LT in the first round in this class where there is no clear cut #1 LT. There are about 5 above average LT's to go in round 1. Based on need, one of those prospects could fall in seattle's lap in round 2.

Rob Staton said...

Hi Lenny - Seattle actually took Walter Jones 6th overall in 1997. I'd also be surprised if Kerney, Jones and Branch managed to generate much at all in a trade. Kerney is the only one who will provide some value to other teams, but his contract will scare those interested away.

I do agree with Iupati though. This mock was a projection in which Seattle took a lineman with the first pick. Until we know the identity of the new GM, we can't study their back ground and get a real grasp for what they might do with the Seahawks. I'll publish a new mock after the underclassmen deadline passes and no doubt look at other scenarios. We may even know who is GM by then. Going back to Iupati - he could be (I stress, 'could' be) a once every ten years type prospect. You don't take guards that early unless they have that kind of quality. Iupati could do. He's big, but he's really athletic and nimble. He fits a man and zone scheme. He'd give Seattle much needed size without having to change from the ZBS. You have to consider him at #14 because he won't be there at #40. His talent demands consideration with one of those picks.

Michael said...

No way the Derrick Morgan I'm watching in the Orange Bowl; the one getting knocked down by Calloway of Iowa consistently, cannot generate his own pressure, and makes tackles 3-4 yards pushed down the line, is going to be the 3rd pick.

Derrick Morgan is getting worked.

This looks exactly like the Derrick Morgan I've watched from my cozy home in North Carolina.

Way, way overrated.

Rob Staton said...

I've always said I'd hold my hands up on this one, Michael, if I had to. I'll admit this hasn't been a good performance so far. He's got the better of Bulaga a couple of times, but he's struggling against Calloway. There's still time though.

I'll watch the game tonight and then watch it again tomorrow. There'll be a blog post up about it asap so stay tuned for that.

Michael said...

Claiborn, now there's a DE.

Anonymous said...

morgan doesn't look fast enough. i say:

6 haden/berry/davis
14 iupati
40 brown (if haden/berry) / mcdaniel if davis

s or cb and ot, og

E in F

Jayce said...

Dwyer's 11 yard lost was stupid... you never ever go backwards.

kearly said...

Not surprising, I'm not a fan of this mock.

Unless something changes in the next 5.5 months, I don't think ANY OL would be worth taking at #6. All the OT's I actually like will be drafted towards the end of the 1st round or even in the 2nd (Barksdale, Brown). Davis might be my least favorite of the top tackles. He looks big, slow, lazy, and unspectacular- which sounds like the perfect recipe for a bust. I'd MUCH rather take Haden there, and if the 1st 5 picks solidify this way leading up to draft day, I hope the Seahawks consider trading up (or down).

I very much like Spiller, its just a question of value to me. Iupati would be my pick here. I'd also try to trade down if the board fell this way.

If the Seahawks had a first round like this, I'd give it a D. A huge reach for a (IMO) likely bust OT and a 150 carry (albeit very good) RB is not the kind of foundation Seattle should settle for with once in a decade draft resources like this.

Mark S. said...

I think that the Vikings do need to look at a corner but I do not see it in the first round. While Winfield has been hurt most of this year it may add a year to his career because of the wear & tear he has not accumulated. Also, they drafted Asher Allen to hopefully be his replacement and I look for Allen to get more snaps next year so the Vikings can see if Allen is the one. They probably will get Sapp to resign as well. No, CB is not the position in the first round IMO.

What they need is a defensive tackle or a linebacker perhaps. With Terrence Cody being available it will be hard for the Vikings to pass on him even with his weight issue which is a concern. If it was up to me, I would pick Jared Odrick in this spot. Many people think he plays the same position as Kevin Williams but the Vikings need another athletic lineman anyway so why not get one who is an All American? Odrick willl rotate in nicely and it could be the Vikings do not find another Pat Williams. There are not too many. There are big guys but can they play.

The more I think about it, it would be better for the Vikings to take Odrick in round 1 and look for a big guy later. Pat Williams went undrafted and has always had that chip on his shoulder. This is where I think you get the big guys because they will be motivated to keep their weight in check unlike a first rounder. Obviously everyone is not the same but that is just my opinion.

The Vikings can get a corner later which I expect them to.

Mike J said...

Finally, someone who has the OT pecking order right!!
But I don't think the Bucs are going to take a DE high.

John_S said...

Depending on how free agency works this year, I would love it if Seattle was able to sign a LT like Marcus McNeill or Michael Roos or restricted FA Jared Gaither.

This would free the Hawks up to go with the BPA for the #6 pick.

Even in this scenario, I would love for the Hawks to trade down and possibly recoup the third rounder Ruskell wasted on Deion Butler.

If that was the case then I would love for the Hawks to take a DE or the safety out of UT if he declares, then Iupati. 2nd round would be Best if he's there or a DE / Safety depending on who they drafted in the 1st round and a WR with the 3rd rounder they recouped.

Rob Staton said...

Kearly - It will be hard to pass on Iupati whoever the Seahawks take with the 6th pick. If Seattle can find a playmaker with their second round pick, they don't have to feel hand cuffed to take Spiller in round one - but then I don't think there's anyone with his playmaking qualities in this class (I also think he can be more than a situational 150 touches guy, he can do more than that).

Mark S - thanks for giving some insight into the Vikings. I'll never claim to be an expert on all 32 teams' draft needs, so it's always helpful when people offer advice on specific teams other than Seattle. The Vikings were one of the toughest teams to pick for in this mock.

Mike J - I'd probably agree with you after last night.

John S - I anticipate free agency to be fairly low key compared to previous years largely because a number of players will become restricted free agents. Seattle would have to be creative, but I think the focus will be through the draft to find additions at key positions and fill long term needs.

Anonymous said...

I live in Texas and have seen most of the Big12 games on top of watching a lot of SEC and about 10 SEC games per year. I disagree with the lack of love for Okung; in the earlier games this year he was "avoided"
by the opponents defenses ( DCs learned from last years performance that it is easier to attack OSU' QB Robinson thru the middle, or the right side) so, when he finally got challenged ( in UT game),he didn't perform to his standards . Plus, the zebras were heavily biased in UT favor. Okung is by far the best LT this year and he can start faster than anyone else at that position.

Anonymous said...

I saw Berry play in his bowl game, and he really stunk the joint up. He missed two tackles that were worthy of negative highlight reels. I watched every Tennessee defensive play over in slow motion, and he looked awful. Not instinctive, got caught up in the wash frequently, took terrible angles at times. I am deathly afraid that the Chiefs will take him.
I think that Todd McShay is an idiot for having him rated above Suh, (and other reasons).

Zach Habner said...

Hey Rob,

Just curious, you have us taking Anthony David with our first pick which I like, I also like Okung and I wouldn't be disappointed with either, but I am a little disappointed in the 14th pick.

While I like CJ Spillers playmaking ability, we have learned that without an offensive line, Spiller's talents mirror Justin Forsetts. Forsett could be an explosive playmaker as well but they have no way to open holes for him. Essentially your drafting another Forsett.

You gave Houston taking Mike Iupati, saying "Iupati could be a once-in-a-decade type interior linemen." In your opinion, why wouldn't Seattle take him at 14, and then possibly add a playmaker in the second round, which can happen (See DeSean Jackson in '08 draft)

What you do then is simply build a potentially dominant left side of your O-line similar (not at first but possibly in the future) to the one in 2005.

A line that looks like this: Davis, Iupati, Unger, Locklear, Willins could be very good in 2 years. If Locklear and Willis continue to be terrible you can always find free agents or draft next year for that side of line.

IMO, drafting two studs on the line (and I watched Iupati live against Washington and in the Humaintarian Bowl, he will be elite) why not do that and find an explosive playmaker when you have the opportunity to create explosive plays. Which you otherwise wouldn't have with this group of guys.

Just some food for thought, wondering what your take on it is...

Thanks

Gustavo Alkmin said...

Cameron Heyward will return for his senior year at Ohio State.

Rob Staton said...

Annonymous 1 - In fairness, I don't think being avoided in weeks previous is enough of an excuse to put the guy in the top ten or top five when he gets beat as badly as he did in that fourth quarter against. I know it goes against what a lot of people are predicting right now - and I'm not trying to be contraversial here - but Okung would've been a late first round pick last year. I don't see what's changed this year to make him a top ten pick, the same flaws exist.

Annonymous 2 - Berry is a good safety, but I think the points you make and the points I've made on this blog on the past are almost the antidote to the huge hype that's been persistent throughout the year. He's working in a system for a coordintor (Monte Kiffin) that NFL teams will respect. They've seen his flexibility to play corner, safety, work in coverage or run support. He does make big plays and can turn an interception into six points.

However, his tackling is a concern because he misses too many. He doesn't diagnose plays well 'all' the time and he's not a big guy. I've seen him pushed out of the way with ease, he's bounced off running backs. Overall he's a playmaker in the secondary - that's why he's a first round pick. But to go top ten or top five, as a safety you have to be the complete prospect who you can build a defense around. I don't think Berry is a complete player and I think he'll be great on a good defense but a luxury on a bad one.

And I still think his best position could be cornerback.

Rob Staton said...

Hey Zach, long time since we last spoke. Hope you're well.

For starters I firmly believe the productivity of the offensive line is two fold - having the right guys blocking but also having the playmakers on your offense to keep a defense honest. Too many times this year (and last) the Seahawks have faced heavy blitz, stacking the box and just basic disrespect for the offense because a team knows they won't be punished. Hasselbeck doesn't have the big arm to beat you deep, we have good receivers but not a real field stretcher and we lack a top running back. In fairness to Justin Forsett, Spiller is on a different plateau. He has elite speed, is a threat to score every time he has possession. He is superb as a receiver, returner and even in pass protection. A team will have to respect that, if you stack the box against him he can turn outside and break off. He only needs to find the edge. If you heavy blitz, put him on a wheel or screen and if he has the ball in space, he can score. The Seahawks need that impact on offense and don't own anyone currently who can do what Spiller can for the line and offense in general.

I do agree about Iupati however. At this stage in the year, I'm projecting different scenarios in my mocks. I had Iupati going to Seattle last time and will do again in the future. Certainly owning a line such as the one you listed will help sort one issue out long term. If they can find a plamaker in round two like a Jahvid Best, then it works out perfectly. That's something I'll look into in further projections.

Gustavo - thanks for the note. I had recognised that Heyward stated he won't declare earlier in the comments section. However, rather than recalculate the enitre mock I'll leave it as it is for now and make changes on the next projection which will take place after the underclassmen deadline passes on January 15th.

Anonymous said...

I hope You can see my point when it comes to OG Iupati. Idaho never played any quality opponents this year for us to know what this guy can do in NFL. Yeah, he is big, intelligent and nimble... On the other hand OG Mike Johnson from Crimson Tide has been successful against the best defenses in college ball and is the MAJOR reason Engram was so good this year (and) in the SEC championship game and got the Heisman this year.
SEC have another good guard in Sr. John Jerry from Ole Miss whom can be taken in the 4th or 5th round.
I would not spend our 1st rounder on Iupati no matter of someone' "geographical bias" or how many of you are having a "crush" on him.

Rob Staton said...

Annonymous - you do make a legitimate argument. That's always the question you have to ask of prospects from smaller schools - can they do it against the better opposition? Having watched Iupati, I think he can, but sure - you give him the full work out at the senior bowl. You temper expectations until then. But it's hard not to like a guy with is size, potential to get even bigger - but is so agile, dominates at the LOS and generally looks like he could be special.

Anonymous said...

Rob, some positions are fine with taking young man from "small schools" ( examples are: Kurt Warner , Jerry Rice etc) but, when it comes to the big boys in the trenches... I am not so sure.
Can You or anyone else picture what will happen to ( with) Iupati after the first encounter with Suh ? Will he still have the "swagger" or .... After all, if the Rams indeed take Suh in the 1st, you're talking playing two games against him for years to come. It is quite possible that Iupati may lose his "warrior spirit" take his money and spend few years on IR with a "back injury".
Alabama' Mike Johnson is proven commodity with the pride of being a champion and playing on the highest level in his college career.

Rob Staton said...

I think we can agree that there's a risk, but that's the task between now and draft day to satisfy your assesment either way. It only takes one team to believe he will transfer to the NFL to make him a first round pick. I've not seen any evidence of his character that suggests he'd 'lose' spirit with a difficult match-up, but again that's something for the scouts to toy with and research. I still think at this stage he could be the best offensive lineman in this draft class.

Steve in Spain said...

We'll be having a new GM next year and while we can only guess for now who that'll be, I can't imagine anybody coming into this organization will think the Hawks have a legitimate QB on the roster. Hasselbeck's been horrible two years in a row and looks to be on the permanent decline. Seneca has taken a serious step back in limited opportunities, and he was a project to begin with. To a newcomer, Teel's "just some guy" - the flotsam and jetsam that populate every NFL practrice squad. The Hawks have one of the worst situations at QB in the NFL. We all love Matt and hope for a recovery, but no new GM is going to hold out hope for a rejuvenated Matt Hasselbeck as his Plan A, B, and C. One of these top three picks (and most realistically one of the top two) must go to QB. Must, must, must. Even if Hasselbeck comes back for one last hurrah.

I agree that Clausen has some red flags that warrant his falling out of the top ten, but if he's there at 14, I just don't see how the Seahawks can go in a different direction. At pick 14, Clausen's advantages (pro system, excellent numbers, playing through injury, strong self-belief) clearly outweigh the risks (sidearm delivery, some bad throwing mechanics). And it doesn't have to be Clausen, the incoming GM could be targeting Tebow in the late 1st or Bradford if he falls at 6, or hoping to move up.

Two rather broad, speculative and potentially stupid questions:

(1) Last year, Cleveland threw the draft value chart out the window and traded down in exchange for garbage (essentially) just to get out of a top 5 pick situation in the Sanchez deal. Yeah, that was Mangini. But I keep wondering if we won't see something similar this year. Any thoughts?

(2) When Ruskell drafted Curry, I thought that one of his considerations was to make live the possibility of transitioning to a 3-4 defense. The Broncos and Packers proved that the transition can be made more swiftly than the doubters thought possible. With a new GM coming in anything can happen, so I ask: If the Seahawks switch to a 3-4, what positions are we lacking?

Thanks Rob, as always.

Rob Staton said...

Hi Steve hope you're well,

You raise a very valid point and one that I will touch on in future mocks. New regimes usually mean new quarterbacks. The Seahawks passed on one last year (Sanchez) but with two first rounders next year, will they do it again? The new GM essentially won't have anything invested in Matt Hasselbeck, he knows he has him for one more year if needed. This would appear to be the time to draft a rookie.

When I leave Clausen out of round one, I'm making a projection based on the tape I've studied. It could happen. I could also be completely wrong. I think the negatives (mechanics is a big issue for me) are bigger than the fact he played in a pro-style offense (so did Brady Quinn, the exact same offense) and in all fairness, I didn't see the range of throws you'd expect from a pro-QB (almost exclusively short slants and long floaty deep balls).

But there are other options. Ryan Mallett intrigues me greatly. He isn't the finished article, but if I'm investing a first round pick in a quarterback it's probably him over both Bradford and Clausen.

Essentially this is a QB league and the position needs to be addressed long term.

With regard to trading down, it's always possible, I think Cleveland exagerared it too greatly last year, but they clearly ranked Alex Mack very highly and he will be a feature of a great young offensive line for a long time. I doubt Seattle would do something similar, but if there's a buyer and a seller and value is seen all round - of course the Seahawks will explore every opportunity.

I'd be surprised if Seattle had 3-4 schemes in their mind when they took Curry. He was always strictly a 4-3 OLB for me. The Seahawks are missing a lot to work n a 3-4. We can probably devise a scheme out of the current roster, but you'd be filling parts in and it'd be a bit too forced considering all the talent is largely for the 4-3. The first thing they'd need is a quality NT. Redding and Mebane could probably play DE but they're both better in the 4-3 as DT's. You'd play Tapp and Jackson at OLB, hardly a threatning combo that you need to get to the QB. Inside linebacker would be a huge hole, none of the current roster to me look ideal fits. Curry would play ILB because of his size, but even then you'd want someone bigger than Hill/Tatupu/Hawthorne alongside him. It took Green Bay two first rounders to even begin a transformation to the scheme. The Seahawks would likely have to do the same and considering the huge needs on offense and lack of a core, I think they'd be better off focussing on other areas rather than shifting to a 3-4. Green Bay could afford to do it - they're sorted at QB for years, have very good receivers and just invested long term in a running back.

da34shadow said...

I understand your concerns about Berry but I believe you are discounting one very big thing that Berry has going for him - a good 40. Teams fall in love with those things and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Raiders reach for him their (although they may just repeat their mistake from last year and take Taylor Mays in front of both higher-rated safeties). Thanks for the analysis. I am going to bookmark this site.

Zach Habner said...

I agree with the assessment on Spiller of course, he is WAY more explosive to Forsett. I hope I didn't compare them that way.


What I really meant was, I felt Forsett could have made more explosive plays with even a decent offensive line. This is why getting Iupati and Davis could make Forsett even better, heck it would make our entire team better. That being said I would love your scenario with Jahvid Best, but I am really high on Toby Gerhart for a lot of reasons. I do not necessarily beleive the Seahawks need an explosive RB, more like an explosive, physical WR (they have not had a no. 1 reciever IMO since Joey Galloway) so that Matt actually has a target to turn would be incompletions to completions the way Larry Fitzgerald or any elite receiver does.

With RB, I want a solid guy who can get close to 5 yards a carry everytime, who is a load to bring down, and who can wear down a defense so that they are able to hit big plays in the passing game.

Granted you need an oline to pass protect an 8 or 9 man front, thats why Iuapati and Davis IMO could go 1 and 2, then pick up Best and/ or Gerhart depending on how the draft goes.

If you couldn't tell I am a big Pac-10 honk, except for Oregon, I hate the Ducks.

If you were given the choice though, would you rather see them with a Chris Johnson type playmaker (Best) or a Larry Fotzgerald type (Like Dez Bryant ot Crabtree last year. BTW does anyone else other than Dez Bryant fit this mold? Maybe Golden Tate?)

Last question, how do you feel about Freddie Barnes of Bowling Green? I know his speed is not elite by any stadards, but he catches everything (set the NCAA record for passes caught in one season) and a finalist for the Bilitnikoff award. I like him as a Joe Jurivicius type receiver that we may be able to pick up in later rounds. What do you think?

Rob Staton said...

da34shadow - That's a very good point regarding the 40 time. If he did run a good one, it'd perhaps convince teams also that Berry can work out at cornerback. His skill set translates well to corner and it'd mask some of the issues I have with him playing at safety. It wouldn't surprise me if teams entertained the prospect of him playing him predominantly at CB, but mixing him around the field in different ways too.

Zach - you raise some good points. I'm not convinced we can rely on Hasselbeck anymore. Teams feel they can man up the receivers and they don't fear being beaten by Jones or Forsett, but they also don't believe Hasselbeck can make things happen. It worries me that he's already in game manager mode and that type needs a great offensive line AND good playmakers to succeed. They have to consider improvements at every position on offense, it's a big task. It's a chicken or egg question though because if you concentrate on the o-line you could be asking rookies to go in and block two guys every snap like the current lot, will that be detrimental? You invest in the young playmakers and they might struggle behind a bad o-line. You bring in the rookie QB but you never want to start them too soon. It's a tough situation for the new GM, but he must address the offense. Drafting Davis and then Iupati would solve the left side of your line indefinitely though - if you cold find some production later in the draft (like a Best), you'd be moving in the right direction.

I don't think they'd go wrong with a Johnson or Fitzgerald type in fairness. They need to find something. Spiller probably won't do what Johnson has but how many do? He'll still be elecrtifying Likewise Bryant with Fitzgerald. I rated Crabtree a lot higher than Bryant though I must admit.

I'm a fan of Freddie Barnes. He catches everything with his hands, he had Crabtree esque hands. He lacks elite speed like you say, but he still found ways to get open, he runs precise routes and catches everything thrown at him. His production is incredible. I think he'll go higher than a lot of people suggest - definitely rounds 3-4 rather than 5-7.

Anonymous said...

Rob, me again.

How do you like Tide' OG Mike Johnson after his performance in the game last night against Texas defense? Key blocks for the two TDs.... and then some.
Still think Iupati is the top guard in the 2010 draft?

Anonymous said...

I would be happy with these drafts.

6 Berry (S)
14 Bulaga (T)
40 Johnson (G)

or

6 Okung (T)
14 Iupati (G)
40 McDaniel (S)

or

6 Okung (T)
14 Thomas (S)
40 Johnson (G)

Starting OT, OG and S

E in F

Anonymous said...

i would wont seattle to take if available in da 2nd kam chancellor from virginia tech

Rob Staton said...

I would say Iupati is a clear class ahead of Johnson having reviewed two further Alabama games. He just doesn't match up as a size/speed combination, he isn't dominant and certainly made a couple of striking errors early in the BCS game. At one point he didn't engage the DL Houston, failed to get his hands on him and watched as he burst into the backfield to record a 11 yard loss off the sack. I think he's a 4-5th round prospect.

Iupati's competition level hasn't been high at Idaho, but he's unique in size with unbelievable agility. He's fluid, he dominates. He could play tackle. We'll see how he does at the senior bowl, but I'm confident he could be special.

Anonymous said...

Rob Staton, you are an egomaniacal idiot. Being on your blog is a waste of my time. Never again. I am deleting the shortcut.

Anonymous said...

If we can get the best LT at #6, and Spiller at #14, I would be jumping up and down with joy! Spiller is the real deal, much more explosive than Forsett. Just watch Spiller on You Tube and that will convince anyone.

While Spiller is the lightning, I would like to draft Blount in the 6th round as the thunder. He is 1st round talent and a steal this late in the draft, with the toughness this team lacks.

Anonymous said...

With Chris Johnson's success this year, Seattle better take Spiller at #6, just to make sure they got him. There is only one of him. No one else has elite speed, and big play ability on offense and special teams. Besides, the Lt you would have taken #6 could still likely be there at #14. If not, a good LT will still be available at #14.

miller said...

YOUR AN IDIOT u think JAHVID BEST from cal is second round with a 2008 avg of 8.1 yards per rush and 2009 had 900yd before missing last 3 games with concussion ur ridiculous 29tds in two years in the back ten come one you know nothing

Dan said...

Miller, maybe you should learn to use punctuation and the difference between "your" and "you're" before you call somebody an idiot. And that text talk garbage makes you look like a moron. Really classy comment you left. You should be very proud of yourself. Oh, I mean "u".

Nice work on the mock, Rob, but Cleveland already has two very young receivers that they drafted in the second round last year. They have holes on the offensive line (right side), at safety, at QB and at corner. If they draft another WR in the first three rounds, they're nuts. If Bradford's gone, they need to take the best defensive back possible.

hcg said...

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