By Rob Staton
I'll be updating my mock draft again tomorrow, so keep an eye out for that. In the meantime, here's a collection of mocks from around the web:
Walter Cherepinsky continues to predict the Detroit Lions will take Russell Okung second overall. I still maintain I don't think this has any chance of happening. I don't rate Okung as highly as others and whether right or wrong - Detroit appear to like Jeff Backus. I would be surprised if the Lions don't pick between Suh and McCoy.
Pat Kirwan posts an updated mock and he matches my latest projection by giving the Seahawks C.J. Spiller at #6 and Derrick Morgan at #14. It's worth keeping an eye on Kirwan's mocks. He's well sourced and is very close to Pete Carroll. It doesn't mean he's getting fed information on who the Seahawks take, but he knows Seattle's Head Coach better than most people.
Chad Reuter puts Okung at #6 and Spiller at #14. I'm not a fan of Okung's, that's well advertised on this blog. If I was making a big board, he'd get a late first round grade. We'll see where he goes on April 22nd.
Evan Silva has the Seahawks grabbing Bryan Bulaga (6th overall) and Joe Haden (14th overall). Bulaga's a difficult one to judge. When watching him, I saw a solid but unspectacular prospect. I don't think he'll match up too well against top speed rushers, but then few actually do. This would be a solid, not flashy, double pick for the Seahawks.
Sideline Scouting has the 'Hawks taking Eric Berry with the 6th overall pick and Bruce Campbell at #14. I'll be surprised if the Seahawks take Campbell, he just doesn't seem like an obvious fit in the Alex Gibbs scheme which relies on smarts and less on physical qualities. There's a need at safety, but with an impotent offense and a poor defensive line - can you justify a big investment at that position? I've never been truly convinced Berry warrants a top ten pick anyway.
29 comments:
Another way of looking at it is that:
Walter Cherepinsky has us taking the 2nd DT drafted and the 1st WR drafted
Pat Kirwan has us taking the 1st RB drafted and the 1st DE drafted
Chad Reuter has us taking the 1st OT drafted and the 1st RB drafted
Evan Silva has us taking the 3rd OT drafted and the 1st CB drafted
Sideline Scouting has us taking the 1st S drafted and the 5th OT drafted.
I don't think it will happen, but I'm very satisified with Walter's draft:
1.6. Gerald McCoy, DT
1.14. Dez Bryant, WR
2.60. Montario Hardesty, RB
4.104. Tony Washington, LT
4.127. Larry Asante, SS
I would happily take any of these two players. Gerald McCoy, C.J. Spiller, Bryan Bulaga, Derrick Morgan, Joe Haden, Eric Berry, or even Dez Bryant. They all would be starters.
I've maintained for some time that as much as I like Montario Hardesty - I can't see him going in round two. He's a five year guy who's had a knee injury. Production wise, we saw nothing until 2009. He hasn't got breakaway speed. What he does well is show patience and offer a real threat in the passing game. Teams will show interest, but I can't see one willing to invest such a high pick in a guy his age, with his lack or production up until 2009 having had a serious knee injury. I think he's a 4-5 round prospect.
We're used to the Seahawks going into the draft with no desperate needs, but they seem to be doing things differently now. They have a desperate need at safety. Are they really confident they can fill that need with a lower round draft pick?
I would rather take Morgan Burnett at 60 than Berry at 6. They have the same amount of interceptions in the same time. Burnett would easily start for us for around 9 or 10 years. At that point he would be 32.
And that would allow us to draft another elite player whether it be playmaker OL or DL at #s 6 and 14.
Johnny B - Some of the needs will have to wait until later. I don't expect safety to take precedent over the other needs - but it'll be an option at #14.
"I don't expect safety to take precedent over the other needs"
Why not? I mean, if you look at what is now the weakest position on the team, it has to be safety, doesn't it?
After reading Kip's article on Gibbs philosophy and approach to drafting and developing OL/RB I don't see the Hawks using any of the first three picks at those positions. Plus with the rumors floating around that the Hawks our interested in Pitts and Smiley makes it even more unlikely. With all indications Pete's approach is to win now. Which was more evident when he acquired Whitehurst for a 3rd rd. pick rather than using our 6th pick to draft a QB and the signing of RB Gathers. Tapps trade, not choosing to sign Redding and releasing Grant clearly shows what direction Pete's going to focus at the draft DT/DE/S!! Could you imagine at 6th Gerald McCoy DT 14th-JPP/Derrick Morgan DE 60th Nate Allen/TJ Ward/Chad Jones. Everyone knows that defense develops faster than offense which justifies Pete's Win Now Approach!!
I'd argue that offensive tackle and defensive end are both bigger needs than safety because of positional value and because I don't think Babineaux is as bad a free safety as most insist. Strong safety prospects--unless they are Taylor Mays freaks--aren't often chosen before the 2nd/3rd round in recent years.
Adding to that, if we draft Berry, we still need a strong safety. Berry is clearly a free safety prospect, and if he's drafted, it's reasonable to assume he'll replace Babineaux in the lineup--leaving the same hole at strong safety (Babineaux isn't a great fit for run support).
Lots of these mock drafts are nothing more than listing players in order of perceived value and then assigning them to the next team on the list. I have seen mocks that don't seem to be aware that Alex Gibbs is the OL coach, and they assign totally non-ZBS linemen to the Seahawks. The smarter folks, such as Walter, have realized that the Lions really need an OT to protect Stafford, which would likely mean that McCoy falls to the Seahawks. What a gift that would be! Then, how about we pick up the phone and call San Diego again, and trade #14 for #28 and #40 (basically equal trade chart value), since they are desperate for Spiller, then send #28 to the Broncos for Brandon Marshall and take a RB and S in round two and then go OL in rounds 4 and 5? So, the Seahawks would have added Brandon Marshall, Charlie Whitehurst, Gerald McCoy, and say Nate Allen and Toby Gerhart and then a couple of Gibbs hand-picked OL from rd 4? I'll take it!
^^also: With the departures of Tapp and Redding, we currently have one every down DE on the roster (Lawrence Jackson). I don't see anyone else on the roster that we can count on in running/containment situations.
Kerney: every snap he plays something falls off of his shoulder
Reed: Itty-bitty
Clemons: Even smaller.
Johnny B - Safety is a need, but it's one much easier filled than other areas of the team. It's not imperative to have an elite, expensive safety. You can't get by, however, without good QB play - guys who can put points on the board and a pass rush. A safety drafted right at the top of round one will be a luxury if it gets smothered behind a bad defensive line. Personally, I'd address other needs early and look at a guy like Major Wright later on.
Annonymous - I still maintain I expect Detroit to draft Suh or McCoy. Whether it's because he isn't a big name or 'elite' at the position, I'm not sure - but replacing Jeff Backus at LT is not Detroit's most pressing concern. They did OK last year on offense and will get better as Stafford develops and megatron gets healthy.
Defensively, they were the worst in the whole NFL. It held them back. Rest assured the moves they made in free agency aren't the cumulative plan to correct this - merely providing the environment for one of those two stud DT's to enter.
Rob I saw you list Major Wright as a possibility. I like this thought but I wonder were you think he may go. I see as a late third to mid fourth, and he would easily take the starting role. Also with the quality of safeties in this draft it seems like there will likely be (normal draft year) late first early second quality at #60.
Rob, the Detroit Lions can potentially draft a franchise LT at the 2nd Pick. The Lions "MUST PROTECT THE QB" Stafford was running for his life in the backfield last year. The OL was horrendous Stafford eventually missed some games due to injuries knee and shoulder. The Lions can't develop a QB thats not playing. For all Lions fans the GM better or its back to the drawing board.
It won't necceaarily even take the lions taking okung to see McCoy fall. They've made it clear they will shop the 2 spot, and as good as McCoy is, you don't trade to the second pick ( especially a bad team in a deep draft) for a DT.
I'm bringing in a new name into the mix because I thought it might be fun to do so. Steve Smith from the Carolina Panthers is signed through the 2012 season.
But it seems to me that Carolina is in a rebuilding mode like Seattle.
He's what, 31 years old. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up on a new team in the next 2 years. Probably not the Hawks but maybe a contending team
The Lions do seem to have things set up very nicely for either Suh or McCoy. But I agree that Stafford can not safely grow behind their present line. Looking at their situation reminds me of ours. Can our line protect our QB? Both of them need it. Matt doesn't need to smell the field turf through his facemask and Whitehurst can't show what he's got if he can't get the ball off.
I say that O-line is our most pressing need. I lwould love a Berry/Marshall result from this draft. Playmakers added on offense AND defense. But can we afford that? I'd like an OT/Spiller result. Or a Bulaga/Morgan. There are so many needs. So many options.
I think the best value we can get from our first two pciks is to draft T at #6, whether it be Okung or Bulaga, since they are the only two worthy of a top ten pick and seem to fit Gibbs requirements according to Kips article(enjoyed). Then with the #14 we trade down and trade away. Brandon Marshall is a proven game changer. He is an absolute Beast who I think will thrive in Seattle. Also by trading down we would gain other draft picks inevitably. I feel that that would get us the best value from our first round.
TBC
I think it's a common misconception that Stafford struggled behind a bad line last year. I speak to a Lions fan a lot - he tells me Jeff Backus did a good job last year and isn't the team's pressing concern. I think it's the same with every team though - without an established 'name' at LT people seem to think it's a priority. Detroit can be succesful on offense with Backus at left tackle. Offense wasn't their problem last year and Stafford wasn't running for his life anymore than Brett Favre was (Detroit and Minnesota gave up a similar number of QB hits).
Defensively though, Detroit were a shambles. Aside from the fact Suh and McCoy are light years ahead of any of this offensive line class - it's still a major need for Detroit. They were the worst team on defense in the NFL. Corey Williams doesn't solve that problem. Williams paired with Suh or McCoy might do. I'm prepared to hold my hands up if I'm wrong, but I'm certain Detroit won't draft Okung.
The Hawk's staff is showing a lot of interest in Jared Veldheer. They were at Hillsdale running him through drill's the other day.
Round #2, maybe?
At #6 McCoy, Spiller, Dez Bryant (if no Marshall trade), or Morgan.
At #14 i would love to see Mays come in as our SS.
I see him smacking Fitzgerald and Crabtree for years. Or if still around Morgan which would mean Al Davis gobbled up Mays already.
At #60 one of these guys.....
Charles Brown
Rodger Saffold
Jason Fox
Jared Veldheer
Vladimir Ducasse
Selvish Capers
And in the 4th/5th/6th rounds guards, a running back (if no Spiller earlier) and a SS (if no Mays earlier)
Carroll thinks Tebow is worth a first?
interesting article by Sando.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest
There seems to be a lot of opinions about Backus amongst Lions fans.
Here is a Lions fan arguing that Backus needs to be replaced. He uses sack stats to support his argument.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/270739-detroit-lion-left-tackle-jeff-backus-is-he-really-that-bad
Veldheer is 6'8", so I wonder if he'd really be a Gibbs fit.
The Lions fan in the article writes that Backus gives up one more sack per year than Minnesota's left tackle, New England's, New York's. He then uses a comparison further down the list to Samuels, Pace and Walter Jones to suggest the fact they have better averages for sacks per year makes him the worst left tackle in the NFL.
I find his use of statistics just a one sided blatent attempt to back up his own argument for wanting a left tackle.
He starts the article by saying he's wanted Detroit to draft an 'elite' left tackle for years. Yet he has no detailed analysis as to why Russell Okung is going to be that guy.
He says the Lions need to draft someone as good as Joe Thomas. Yeah - so do half of the teams in the NFL because Thomas is the best young tackle in the league.
When I watched Detroit, and I trust my Lions sources implicitly, you could see that they had a functionable offense - but the defense was just flat out abysmal.
As I've said - if Detroit take a LT 2nd overall I'll hold my hands up and admit I was wrong. However, it will be mind blowing for me if they do - I absolutely cannot see it.
Seattle are doing their due dilligence. They're going to every pro-day, they're looking at every prospect. They're bringing in Tebow to see what he looks like. They worked out Morgan. They've looked at Veldheer. They'll not leave a stone unturned.
Rob: I know. I didn't give credence to that guy's article, I was just giving a fanbase source to represent that plenty of Lions fans have wanted to replace Backus for years (he's started like 144 consecutive games, which is a feat in itself).
Suh and McCoy are better players than the tackles available, they should stay put and take one. But if there's any credence to the Lions wanting to move down from #2 (Kffl reports, I think)--I wonder why.
With such a bad defense (for the better part of a dozen years) you'd think they'd just stay mum/put and take one of those two defensive tackles.
Moving down even a handful of spots would probably put them out of contention for Suh/McCoy.
It could be irrelevant to us, since the teams trading up may be doing so to land one of those guys--and/or, the Lions would still take Suh/McCoy if they couldn't move down.
Additionally, I have a hard time seeing a lot of movement at the top of the draft with a potential rookie cap in the future.
Do you think there's any chance they don't want to spend tons more cash on the DT position?
Rob, it should be interesting how your updated draft will look if McNab signs with the Rams. This will differently have a chain reaction for the top five picks. Along with rumors swirling from Cleveland that they are will to trade up to draft their franchise QB. There will certainly be discussions between Holmgren and the Tampa Bay for the rights of 3rd pick overall.
1st-Rams Ndamukong Suh
2nd-Lions Russell Okung
3rd- Browns Sam Bradford
4th-Redkins Jimmy Clausen
5th-Chiefs Roland McClain
6th-Seahawks Gerald McCoy
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