There's under a month to go until the NFL draft and many questions are still to be answered. When I watched the tape of Jimmy Clausen, I wasn't completely convinced a team would spend a top ten pick to make him the future of their franchise. At the same time, I appreciated his background in a pro-style offense and the importance of the position he's played. In my mocks, I've shown Clausen going in the top ten (including to Seattle) and I've had him sinking down the board.
The Seahawks at #6 and Cleveland at #7 have both added quarterbacks outside of the draft. Is it a sign that Clausen won't be around by the time they select, or a sign that they have no interest in taking the Notre Dame quarterback? Are the Redskins really interested in bringing him to Washington? Today I'll look at a scenario I haven't yet reviewed.
Round One
#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
The Rams have decided that they need to find a franchise quarterback. Bradford will be the choice. I'm not convinced by the McNabb trade talk.
#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
I still see Okung placed here and I still don't buy it. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong, but for me it'll be mind blowing should it happen.
#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
The Buccs will settle for McCoy if Suh's off the board. This fills a huge need in Tampa Bay.
#4 Washington: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
People are low on Davis right now, but he has the most upside and he's already the best pure pass protector in this class. I think Shanahan will like this guy.
#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
Nobody thought Tyson Jackson would go third overall this time last year. Kansas City will do what it takes to build a great 3-4 defense.
#6 Seattle: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
Is it expensive? Sure. Do people like it? A lot don't. You can get Spiller twenty touches a game and he'll get you points in return. Don't bet against this pick - it could happen even if you're not seeing it suggested in a lot of places.
#7 Cleveland: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The Browns could go in a number of directions but they'll consider taking Berry to add a much needed presence in the secondary. I still think Berry could slide out of the top ten.
#8 Oakland: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
I'll be honest, when I watched this guy in 2009 I wasn't impressed. But he ran a 4.8 forty yard dash and suddenly people talk about him in a much more positive way. Sounds like an Oakland pick to me.
#9 Buffalo: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
Bulaga will interest teams as a left tackle despite his short arms. Chan Gailey has experimented with the spread as an offensive coordinator, so Clausen's pro-style ability won't necessarily turn his head. I just can't see a Gailey-Clausen match.
#10 Jacksonville: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
Thomas is another who itrigues me a lot. Some talk this week that he might not be as high on some boards as expected. Is it just talk to force a fall? The Jaguars will probably look to move down if possible.
#11 Denver: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
The Broncos have rebuilt their defensive line in free agency. They might look to add
an outside presence in the draft with Sergio Kindle - who is stout against the run.
#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
The Dolphins re-signed Jason Ferguson, but he's suspended for the first half of the season. He's also getting up in years, so adding Williams to play the valuable nose tackle makes sense
#13 San Francisco: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
The 49ers are not convinced with Alex Smith. They want to be, but they aren't. If Clausen falls here they'll really consider adding him. Having an extra pick at #17 and being able to fill another need will make this more realistic.
#14 Seattle: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
There are a lot of options for Seattle here. They could move down the board or make a trade for Brandon Marshall. If they stay put - Morgan makes a ton of sense as the most polished defensive end in this class.
#15 New York Giants: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
Haden repaired his stock with a well run forty at the Florida pro-day in difficult weather conditions.
#16 Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
Pierre-Paul is raw but he has unlimited upside and teams will look at him as someone they can coach into greatness. His lack of experience might keep him out of the top ten, but he owns top ten talent.
#17 San Francisco: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
Mike Singletary loves guys like Taylor Mays. The Niners have a need in the secondary, particularly at the strong safety position.
#18 Pittsburgh: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Steelers could tap into the depth at cornerback by taking the second best prospect after Joe Haden leaves the board.
#19 Atlanta: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Receiver isn't a need for Atlanta, but the Falcons will have to consider him as BPA if he falls this far. Another great target for Matt Ryan.
#20 Houston: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
With a run on cornerbacks under way, the Texans will be cautious of filling the hole left by Dunta Robinson's departure.
#21 Cincinnati: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
The Bengals do have needs on the defensive line and Price would offer a disruptive interior presence.
#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.
#23 Green Bay: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
Kyle Rota's scouting report on Okung is an absolute must read and highlights some of the reasons why Okung might not be a top ten lock. He performed well at the combine before his injury, but if any of the tackle class is facing an unexpected fall - I think it could be Okung.
#24 Philadelphia: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
The Eagles could still target a defensive end like Everson Griffen or Carlos Dunlap despite trading for Darryl Tapp. However, Iupati could be a surprise contender to land in Philly.
#25 Baltimore: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
The Ravens would find some value in the under rated McCourty, who put on a show at the combine.
#26 Arizona: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
Brown could go higher than this, he really helped his stock by hitting 300lbs at the combine. The Cardinals could consider taking a tackle in round one.
#27 Dallas: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Jerry Jones could target a big target at receiver. He's traditionally avoided drafting offensive lineman in round one and he likes a flashy pick.
#28 San Diego: Brandon Graham (OLB, Michigan)
Graham is a great pass rusher, but his lack of size could put off teams - as we saw with Everette Brown last year.
#29 New York Jets: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Jets need to add to their pass rush and Griffen will interest some teams as a 3-4 outside rusher.
#30 Minnesota: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Opinion differs so much on Robinson. He owns top 15 qualities, but watch the tape and you see so many mistakes. Playing behind a very good defensive line should help.
#31 Indianapolis: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
The Colts like their lineman to fit their scheme, they don't mind smaller guys. That's good news for Pouncey, who arrived at the combine smaller than advertised. He could play some guard from day one and eventually move to center.
#32 New Orleans: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I was never blown away watching tape of Weatherspoon from 2009. He should warrant consideration here though and offers an instant impact as a rookie.
Round Two
#33 St. Louis: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Getting Sam Bradford a safety net - especially one he's worked with in college - makes sense. Injuries are the only reason Gresham is still available here.
#34 Detroit: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
The potential reward taking Dunlap here counters the risk that comes with his inconsistent effort.
#35 Tampa Bay: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
The Buccs need to add some weapons for Josh Freeman.
#36 Kansas City: Golden Tate (WR, Notre Dame)
Tate impressed everyone with his speed at the combine and his production was superb in 2009. However, I still think he'll do well to find a home in round one.
#37 Washington: Roger Saffold (OT, Indiana)
Saffold's stock is rising sufficiently after a good combine and Washington must find a left tackle.
#38 Cleveland: Eric Decker (WR, Minnesota)
Browns GM Tom Heckert personally watched Decker on a number of occasions last year. The Browns need to add another receiver.
#39 Oakland: Chris Cook (CB, Virginia)
Al Davis loves to draft defensive backs and he loves to draft guys who run fast forty times. A perfect match.
#40 San Diego: Dominique Franks (CB, Oklahoma)
The Chargers' deal to move up with Seattle could see a corner back targetted early in round two.
#41 Buffalo: Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
Chan Gailey experimented with the spread using Tyler Thigpen in Kansas City. If Jacksonville don't find a way to take him, Buffalo appears to be an alternative but I honestly think there's a chance Tebow goes earlier than this.
#42 Tampa Bay: Brandon Ghee (CB, Wake Forest)
The Buccs have a lot of needs. Ghee could go this early after running well at the combine.
#43 Miami: Ricky Sapp (OLB, Clemson)
Bill Parcells likes to draft linebackers and Sapp would be a steal here.
#44 New England: Rob Gronkowski (TE, Arizona)
The Patriots go through tight ends like they're going out of fashion, so they might invest one of these picks on a guy like Gronkowski. Back issues could force him way down the board.
#45 Denver: Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
LaFell has disappointed at the combine and during the 2009 season, but he has the potential to have a Dwayne Bowe type rookie season.
#46 New York Giants: Jahvid Best (RB, California)
Concussions push Best down the board, but this would be a great fit as part of a three-pronged rushing attack.
#47 New England: Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU)
Hughes could go earlier than this - he'll be valuable as a pure pass rusher.
#48 Carolina: Aaron Hernandez (TE, Florida)
Not Carolina's greatest need, but a solid pass catching safety net for whoever starts at quarterback.
#49 San Francisco: Damian Williams (WR, USC)
The 49ers might look to add another weapon to go alongside Crabtree, especially if they do draft Clausen in round one.
#50 Kansas City: Cam Thomas (DT, North Carolina)
The Chiefs complete their 3-4 rebuild with a nose tackle.
#51 Houston: Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)
I'm not as high on Mathews as some, but Houston appears ready to draft a new running back.
#52 Pittsburgh: Alex Carrington (DE, Arkansas State)
The Steelers add to their defensive line having drafted a cornerback in round one.
#53 New England: Ben Tate (RB, Auburn)
The Patriots always find ways to add talent and Tate could sneak into round two.
#54 Cincinnati: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
Very athletic, but the tape doesn't show a dominant force.
#55 Philadelphia: Daryl Washington (OLB, TCU)
A rising name who would fill a need for Philly.
#56 Green Bay: Amari Spievey (CB, Iowa)
The Packers could use corner help, although I think Joe McKnight is a sleeper to go here.
#57 Baltimore: Anthony McCoy (TE, USC)
McCoy flashed first round ability during the 2009 season, but injury and academic issues restricted production.
#58 Arizona: Torell Troup (DT, UCF)
The Cardinals might invest a pick at the all important nose tackle position.
#59 Dallas: Chad Jones (S, LSU)
Great size and athleticism at the safety position - something Jerry Jones likes to see.
#60 Seattle: Lamarr Houston (DT, Texas)
The Seahawks might have considered Houston at #40. A lack of 4-3 teams in need of an interior presence could mean he's still around twenty picks later - and this is great value.
#61 New York Jets: Linval Joseph (DT, East Carolina)
One to watch - Joseph is a potential nose tackle who ran a 5.09 and benched 39 reps - whilst weighing 328lbs. Strong and fast guys who play this position go early.
#62 Minnesota: Joe McKnight (RB, USC)
This makes sense in terms of a good replacement for Chester Taylor.
#63 Indianapolis: Geno Atkins (DT, Georgia)
The Colts like smaller, faster lineman on both sides of the ball. Atkins ran well at the combine and weighed in under 300lbs.
#64 New Orleans: Morgan Burnett (S, Georgia Tech)
It's unclear what the future holds for Darren Sharper, but if New Orleans move on they'll have a lot of options here. Reshad Jones and Major Wright could be alternatives.
42 comments:
come on man, a rb with the 6th pick are you serious... what a waste, we need difference makers!
I have looked at the tape, he doesn;t exactly jump out at you,Dez Bryant is more explosive than Spiller. Wait until the 2nd and pick up Tate... use the 6th and 14th on physically able to out perform others..
My picks #6 Dez Bryant:
#14 JPP
#60 Tate
4th rds OT and DT.
Philly radio reporting that McNabb has been traded to STL for OJ Atogwe and the Rams 2nd round pick.
I imagine this makes it much more likelier for STL or DET to trade out of their first pick to a team that wants Bradford.
Nick N.
And now practically everyone in the Rams headquarters has come out to shoot down that trade rumor. Never trust Philly radio.
Nick N.
Rob, given the chance that we could take Haden over Morgan, we need to do that. Remember how badly we got beat in our secondary last year? I don't believe Trufant will ever return to his full form and Wilson can't carry the load alone. I think we could do so much more with Haden than we could with Morgan because the situation at corner, and as a whole the secondary, is a much more dire need than our defensive line. I know that we had terrible pressure against the QB, but every good team has at least one good player in their secondary. We, at the moment, have 0.
Did I miss something or is Mt. Cody not drafted in the top two rounds? If Gibbs and Bates do not have a history of drafting RBs and OL int he first round, why would they change now? Could they not get a better value at DL or maybe move down (if possible.) I can only see drafting a RB in the top ten if he is EPIC. I like CJ Spiller but doubt he will go to us in the top ten. Seems to me that somebody may trade up for Clausen if he is available before SF gets him.
Oh Well. I love your mocks. I may not agree but your logic is always sound.
Mike Kelly
Annonymous - I think Spiller can be a difference maker. But the important thing to remember here is - this isn't me making the picks for Seattle or any other team. It's what I think the guys actually making the picks could do. Would I take a running back at #6 personally? I'd have my doubts. However, I think he absolutely could be the choice there. The Seahawks have no playmakers, nobody who scores cheap points and breaks off big plays. I think finding a guy like that will be paramount to the new regime. They need to do find a spark.
Nick P - I think the secondary isn't helped by the fact Seattle's pass rush is non existent. If you give any wide receiver enough time, he's going to get open. The way to stop Arizona won't be to cover Fitz et al for 5-7 seconds, it'll be getting to Leinart. Seattle need to find an edge rusher who can get to the QB. Trufant and Wilson aren't elite by any means, but as a duo I much prefer them to the options currently at defensive end.
Mike - I maintain that I think Cody is an early third rounder. I could be wrong. The weight issue for me is huge. You're going to have to watch him every day of the week. Every hour. He was bang out of shape for the senior bowl and had to work his backside off to be better for the combine. He hasn't show great strength. I have concerns about is ability to stay on the field. Is he really an imovable object or will be a headache who becomes a liability? I know nose tackle is important, but at what cost?
Im sorry but uhmmm i have to disagree...
Lions are going to draft Okung, i think he is overrated too.
Berry? :s not sure about that.... it could happen
Bruce Campbell had a better combine if you are going to use that logic!.
Clausen and taylor mays going to the niners?? thats crazy talk im sorry, not gonna happen...Even if Singletary loves guys like taylor mays he is not in charge.
Atlanta needs a DE!
So if the Lions signing Corey Williams and Vanden Bosch creates a perfect atmosphere for a DT in Detroit, do you also think keeping Matt and signing Aragorn to relatively short deal makes the perfect situation for Clausen in Seattle?
It could make sense. Seneca was never going to profile as a Carrol/Bates type QB and if they waited till after the draft all the decent backups would have been gone. Considering Matt's health and lack of confidence in Seneca, they probably figured they needed to bring in someone who could see over the line and eventually run Bates offense next year. So, instead of trading up for Clausen (which would have cost them ~1000 draft points), they get a potential Hair-apparent to Matt (500 points) and have the luxury of not being screwed if the Skins take Clausen.
Ugh. This mock is very uninspiring. Probably likely and the logic is sound, but it's uninspiring.
2 of our top 3 picks on D and no secondary help? I know DE pressure will help the secondary but we gave up 282 yards to Kyle Boller and 310 to Alex Smith and we had 5 sacks over those two games.
This is a very deep DB class and I'd hate to see us miss out. (wouldn't mind SS Larry Asante in the 4th)
Love Spiller but just not at 6. He might not be there at 14, but either him or Dez should be there and either would be and instant upgrade. Dez might be more of a need with Burleson out.
BTW: Skins taking 2 LTs?
RJR - Singletary has more power than you think, especially since the GM bolted in SF. They don't trust Alex Smith. They'll go with him if they have to, or David Carr. If they get a chance to bring in Clausen, they'll look at it. If they don't take Clausen, it won't be because they're 100% sold on what they already have.
I've said many times on this blog - it will be mind blowing to me if Detroit don't take Suh or McCoy. Not even just because I think Okung is over rated - and not just because Suh and McCoy are as good as they are. Everything the Lions have done this year so far screams to me that they're setting up the best environment to take a DT. Jeff Backus is servicable and not the problem in Detroit.
Campbell had a great combine but looks very suspect on tape, which is why I have him falling. Oakland might spoil that projection.
Atlanta need a defensive end, but when a guy falls sometimes he ends up at a team you don't expect. Not every team drafts to fill a need. Taking Bryant is a wild card but something I could see happening. Why not keep helping your franchise QB? He'll take you far if you do.
Chavac - my point with Williams and KVDB in Detroit is that the Lions were just so bad on defense last year. Putting Suh in there would be a waste as a sole entity. You need to surround him with better players to maximise the investment. In Seattle, taking another QB is a bit different because you have three guys and one space. Suh, Williams and KVDB all will start.
Matt - I think if Houston goes a DB is more likely. A lot of the CB's have gone though, so you're looking at safety's. Maybe Major Wright there or Reshad Jones. I like Asante later on. I gave Seattle Lamarr Houston just based on value.
Oh yeah - I should explain Washington right? Saffold was originally marked down as an interior guy, but his impressive combine led to talk of kicking out to tackle in the pro's. I think Washington's need on the offensive line could warrant a double pick. We'll see. They have a good defense and a lot of wide outs. They will get something out of their running game. A better line could do more for Washington because of their quality in other areas. I think Shanahan's coaching will be good for doubling their win tally alone - they have a lof of talent.
Chavac made me lol with the Whitehurst = Aragorn statement. I say from this day forth our new QB shall be known as Aragorn. Hopefully he can play as well. (nerd alert!)
Mike Kelly
The difference between someone like C.J. Spiller and Montario Hardesty/Ryan Mathews is not nearly the talent drop off as Trent Williams/Charles Brown and Selvish Capers/Ciron Black. With so many holes the Seahawks will look at not only individual talent but the marginal decline in positional talent. IMO there is no question that you can grab better RBs later in the draft than you can OTs.
Regardless of what Gibbs has done in the past, you need something to work with. We need a starting left tackle THIS year. So getting a 4th round tackle to "redshirt" is not an option.
You will not see Mt. Cody fall out of the second round, not necessarily because he is so talented but because of positional value. How many true 0 techs are out there? Not many, and how many more teams are transitioning to a 3-4 without a NT?
Rob,
Keep up the good work. I don't know about Morgan. Spiller and Charles Brown might be a good combo though. I had to google this...Whitehurst = Aragorn. Lord of the Rings dorks on a Seahawk site..oh the humanity!
Rob, I have to say that while I believe in BPA if possible, we can't ignore needs. I don't expect Kerney to be back as he's mentally retired already, so I think we have to land a DE starter and the only guy feasible is Morgan. Therefore, I'd much rather see us take Morgan first to ensure we get him. If we can trade down a couple spots, even better, but we've gotta have him. I see that as our greatest need, even more than playmakers and O-line. We can wait until 14 for Spiller, Bryant or Haden and/or take Chad Jones/Hardesty at #60. Of course, that leaves us waiting to the 4th for O-line, but we can't fill all the holes in one year anyway. Hopefully Gibbs can patch together something from what we have now, and we can use the 4th rounders on guys like Petrus and Washington to develop.
Vince - the thing is though, we've already seen Gibbs talk about 'redshirting' rookies whatever round they're taken. Hardesty I like, but he's a major injury concern and he's already 23. Why hasn't he shown up at the party until 2009? That's four years of nothing. Matthews, for me, isn't anywhere near the playmaker Spiller is. If you put C.J. Spiller on the Seahawks team last year, they score more TD's. He makes bigger plays. That's the guy he is. He never played behind a great line or on a great team in Clemson. The guy scores TD's and he's a home run hitter. You put a rookie LT on the blind side, not much changes for me. I don't think the Seahawks will be afraid of drafting a guy like Spiller even though a lot of fans don't like the sound of taking a RB early. I think it's more likely than a lot of other people - Mayock said today that Spiller will be a top ten pick.
As I've said, I understand the value of the NT position. That's why I've got 3-4 of those guys going in round two. However, Cody will scare teams. Character concern is one thing. Having to literally watch what a guy eats day in day out... almost to the point you have to baby sit him? That's a nightmare for the expense of a second rounder. Is he an imovable object? I'm not sure. He's huge, I'll give him that. He's not that strong though. By half time he could be gasping for breath. The position is important, ut is it 'that' important?
Annonymous - I had to google Aragon too... as much as I'd like to pretend to be intellectual enough to enjoy a tome like L.O.R. - there's always too much sport on the TV to tackle reading something like that. Ditto for the long films. I rarely go to the cinema these days because everything seems to be a 3 hour chore.
Back to the football - Brown remains a very viable option as an excellent fit into the ZBS and being familiar to Pete Carroll.
Annonymous - excellent point regarding Morgan and that could happen. A lack of 4-3 teams after #6 though could mean he's likely to be there at #14. You could almost guarantee both Spiller and Morgan by going that way round. I'm not sure you could with the reverse (Spiller a real option for Cleveland and SF). But you make a very valid point regarding the DE position.
Hey Rob, you've had Houston going to us in the 2nd for quite a while now. I know you do these mock to show possibilities. Houston is a good pick at #60, but what if he doesn't last that long? Perhaps you could list some alternatives in future mocks?
My best guesses would probably be a Strong Safety (Reshad Jones or Chad Jones) since we need a SS who's good enough to start immediately. Or perhaps Demaryius Thomas? He's the closest thing to Brandon Marshall in this draft. Hell, Tebow going to us at #60 wouldn't shock me at this point. He's a project to be sure, but he fits and Carroll just gushed about him the other day.
Rob, love the mock. Agree with Kip about the 2nd round too, I'd love Houston in the 2nd, but would like to see a SS or WR just to mix it up.
Couple if comments:
I'm not a huge fan of Spiller at 6, especially when Haden is there at 15. A Morgan, Haden, Houston draft would be great for our D, and who knows, maybe we can pick up Saffold with the pick we get by trading down?
What do you think of Saffold, Veldheer, and Washington as fits fir Gibbs' ZBS?
Rob,
Will you be leaning toward Spiller and Morgan for Drafttek's mock next week?
-Warren
Rob - completely agree that we need a playmaker but you need an impactful player, that's production can't be replaced in later rounds. RBs are just not that. An elite WR would be much more acceptable at either 6 or 14 especially at the chance of losing Derrick Morgan.
IMO John Schneider and Pete Carrol are betting that Charlie Whitehurst is going to be the guy. No questions asked you have to surround him with talent with your top picks in order to give him a chance. But if he doesn't have three seconds to throw the ball he will not be able to accomplish anything. Give him blind side protection with Charles Brown or Trent Williams and a RB at 60. Now you could see an offense starting to form. And I don't buy "redshirting" the 6th or 14th pick if it is a LT. You don't pay a tackle a min of 20 mil (14th pick) to sit around on the bench. Times change and PC will be on top of that change to put the best players on the field. Doesn't matter if tradition dictates otherwise. But maybe I took Carrol's strategies in a different light.
As much as I don't like it, two of our three first picks will be offense just to help Whitehurst.
Rob, regarding Hardesty, in 2009 the Volunteers switched to a zone blocking scheme, which he is very well suited for, plus he finally stayed healthyy, so that could explain the sudden jump.
What do you think about Berry at #6 with Morgan at #14 and then either Joe McKnight or Dexter McCluster at #60?
I'll attempt to answer the question about Saffold, Veldheer, and Washington.
Veldheer is very unlikely. Gibbs doesn't like his tackles over 6 foot 5.5 inches, and Veldheer is 6'8". He's also got shorter arms than Bulaga (33.0"). Bad combination. Oh, did I mention he played in a division II school?
Washington is 6'6", which is probably close enough to consider him by height. He's got nice arms (35.5"). I can't speak for the FO, but his incestual mistake at age 16 doesn't bother me at all. Depending on how they feel about that, he could be on their radar.
Saffold has short arms (33.6"), but otherwise checks all of the criteria. I think he's a very likely option if he somehow falls to the 4th round (IMO, 90% chance he won't). He's got a ton of experience and looked good in drills. From what I've read, he's a legit LT prospect. Might be considered at #60.
My favorite part of this mock is that you totally f'ed over the Niners by giving them Claussen and Mays in the first round. That is my nightmare scenario for the Seahawks to end up with, so thanks for dumping them on the Niners!
Hey Rob or Kip, do you think there is any #1 receivers in the draft besides Bryant? I feel that Housh is best in the slot so getting someone on the outside is important for our offense. If the Marshall trade doesn't go down and we don't get Bryant, is a receiver like Rejus Benn, Damian Williams, or Golden Tate, a possible number one receiver? I don't see us taking any of these guys at #14 but maybe if we trade back.
Kip, if Hardesty only produces when he's healthy and he's been injured more often than not, I don't see how that alleviates any concerns. His production under the ZBS is intriguing though.
Rob, I can see Clausen or Mays going to SF for the exact same reasons you stated. Remember, just six months ago Alex Smith couldn't beat out freaking Shaun Hill in training camp for the starting job. The same Shaun Hill who was later benched and cut. SF definitely doesn't believe in Smith and we saw how last year's draft they're willing to grab a falling star at a position of non-pressing need. I agree that Singletary would love a player like Mays. Pick 13 is where Mays starts to have value, and it'd make sense to steal Mays right before Carroll picks.
But I think SF's #17 pick is almost surely reserved for a RT.
Rob, I love your mocks. I keep seeing Cleveland projected to take Eric Berry at #7 as the BPA. However, I remember Holmgren once saying that his biggest regret when taking over the Seahawks was focusing on building the defense first, and neglecting the offense. It may have been on KJR, but I think he said that if he could do it over again, he'd focus on the offense first, because he trusted how he could build a young defense to compliment an experienced offense, more than he could the other way around. True, his draft history doesn't reflect what he said (I think Lamar King in '99, Alexander-McIntosh in '00, Koren-Hutch in '01), but it seemed to be how he felt.
Since this is his first pick to start changing the Browns to his liking, I have to think offense here: Spiller, Clausen, Bryant, or best-available tackle at #7. Then he'll focus on defensive studs in a couple years once their offense is improved.
Rob,
So I've got a question for you. So I understand that the team NEEDS playmakers, but what about other NEEDS? The FO went out and signed FA RB Ganther, they have J-Force, and ZB teams are known for being able to draft productive RBs in the later rounds. This would lead me to the conclusion that while they would love to have Spiller, he is a luxury pick.
My reasonsing for this is because the team has two positions where they need someone who they can start from day one: DE (enter Derrick Morgan), and LT (enter Bulaga/Davis/Brown). I know Gibbs says that he redshirts his lineman, but he didn't redshirt Ryan Clady in Denver, and unless they think that Locklear can play the LT position, they aren't going to find a day one starter in the draft after pick #14...so what would they do?
Your thoughts?
Griffin
The Niner picks are interesting. I do think that they could end up with Clausen if he does fall. I think that they would take Dez Bryant at 17 if he were there too rather than Taylor Mays. That would actually be pretty scary for me. An accurate QB to go with now 2 stud WRs along with Gore, Coffee and V. Davis. That makes their offense incredibly high powered.
I don't think that Washington gets out of this draft without a QB and probably a higher round QB. I also don't think that Anthony Davis will be a fit for Washington if they are going to run the ZBS which is what Shanahan does right? I think taking 2 Tackles is just way off, especially for a team that needs a QB and WRs.
As for the Hawks, Spiller, Morgan and the DT would be pretty good in my opinion. I'm not totally sold on a RB this early but getting the most dynamic player in the draft is not something I'll complain about. I think he can handle 20 touches a game too. Maybe not all going between the tackles but running outside and catching passes are not going to punish his body as much. I would like to see us grab a tackle, Brown in particular but if they have someone later in the draft they are comfortable with then I'm comfortable with it too.
GO HAWKS!!!
Kip -fair point on Houston. Will look at alternatives later, I'm probably not the only one hoping that #60 can be used in a Brandon Marshall deal on draft day.
Annonymous - In terms of pure ability, I like Morgan and Haden. However, I think the Seahawks will try to find some offense with one of those high picks. On paper, none of the lineman you mentioned are stereotype Gibbs lineman in size. I think the Seahawks will do due dilligence with those guys though and see if the quality warrants the pick regardless of scheme. If I was to be absolutely honest, it wouldn't much surprise me if Sean Locklear was the starting LT next year. People will hate the sound of that, but I think he'll do a lot better if the Seahawks can find some offense and move pressure away from the offensive line.
Kip - I just think too many people are getting hyped up on Hardesty because of the combine. I like the guy a lot, but he's not a second round pick. Microfracture surgery is a major concern, already 23, four out of five years no production - that's not second round stuff.
Derek - I think Brandon LaFell has the ability to be a #1 guy but he's just under achieved so much. Demaryius Thomas could be, but he's risk reward because of the offense he comes from. The rest? They're all really complimentary guys. Mike Williams has talent, but a bad attitude.
Griffin - I just think the Seahawks and Pete Carroll will be looking for more of a spark than putting their faith in retreads and late round picks. They need someone who can literally be a threat to score every time the ball is in his hands - that's what Spiller is. He'll put six points on the board. Seattle's offense has nobody like that and won't find it with servicable guys. I know the history of the ZBS, but I don't think the Seahawks will be strict Gibbs all the way through. Carroll always had playmakers at SC. Spiller is explosive, he makes big plays.
appreciate the effort, but I think this is fairly far off.
Why?
As a 49er fan I am not shocked you gave us such a bad pick at 13 and Taylor Mays at 17. The 49ers are NOT going to take Jimmy Clausen when they have bigger needs in the secondary and on the offensive line. Alex Smith was not great this past season, but he was not horrible either. OL and a defensive pick (secondary) will be where SF goes with their two picks in the first rd. Singletary has a little power but Jed York aka wannabe Eddie D Jr has more power than MS. SF will not bypass taking an Okung who will be taking in the top 10 if he somehow fell to 13, and they sure as hell would not pass on Haden, with their needs at the corner position. Sorry but this is a bad mock for SF.
You have got to be kidding with the Browns taking Decker in the second. He's got about a 5th round grade. CB (Ghee, Cook or Franks) or OLB/DE (Hughes or Sapp) make way more sense for the Browns than doing the dumb pick you have suggested.
TheOUTLAW - Decker does not carry a 5th round grade. Browns GM Tom Heckert went and personally watched Decker a number of times in 2009. He has great hands, runs good routes - Holmgren's offense is all about timing and knowing your job. Decker would be a perfect fit. It might not happen, but then there isn't a mock draft on the internet that will get every pick right. I try to use some justification for each selection - I don't think it's a 'dumb' selection and I'd like to try and keep a more personable tone to the discussion.
Annonymous SF fan - I've had SF taking Haden and Trent Williams for most of my mocks. However, I like to look at different scenarios. The 49ers aren't sold on Smith which is why he didn't beat out Hill last year. He likely would've been cut by now but for the stigma of the high pick. If they think Clausen is a potential franchise QB and a top ten pick - how can they pass? Of course, if they don't think Clausen is a franchise QB, they don't take him. Same goes for all the teams choosing before SF. However - someone will like Clausen.
Most of the tackles have gone by that point and I think Okung is heavily over rated. I don't think it's a stretch to see him potentially fall on draft day. I've portrayed that here. Mays will interest teams even if people are down on him right now. He can do a good job for a team like SF who have the kind of mentality that Mays himself already uses on the field - we'll hit you in the mouth and make you hate to face us.
Dude. Seriously. Russell Okung falling to 23? You have got to be kidding me. I am a HUGE packer fan. And i would LOVE to have Okung. But your seriously high if you think he well fall to us. He is a top 3 caliber pick. For him to fall past 5 is a cold day in hell. And to 23? Haha yea. Dont think so.
Annonymous - I've studied Okung for two years. I've posted a detailed scouting report from a guy I respect more than any other voicing the same concerns. Okung is hugely over rated and the only reason people call him a top 3 caliber pick is because the big names say so. I've never been convinced by his play. Feel free to tell me why I'm wrong in the same level of detail - but until then I stand by this assesment:
http://seahawksdraft.blogspot.com/2010/01/okung-osu-ugly-in-cotton-bowl.html
Well Rob i understand that part. All of the NFL anylists are saying he is a top pick. But they are NFL anylists for a reason. Not just some guys off the street. And over rated? Well i belive it was the Texas game that he had 23 pancake blocks and no sacks allowed? Is that over rated to you?
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