Wednesday, 9 December 2009

Getting in on the Mock Draft Fun

After looking at the excellent mocks by Matt and Rob, I decided I should do a first-round mock as well. It should be noted that while I generally get a decent feel for the Seahawks by the time draft day approaches, this early in the year I'm going to be wildly off on all of my picks.

In general I try to base my mock drafts off of what I think the team will do. Since Seattle has not figured out who will be making their decisions for 2010, I'm instead going to go off of what I would do if I were Seattle. The rest of the teams are my attempts at predicting what each team front office will do.

Kyle's 2010 Mock Draft:

Picks 1-5

#1 Cleveland - Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
#2 St Louis - Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
#3 Tampa Bay - Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma state)
#4 Detroit - Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
#5 Washington - Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)

Suh is largely accepted as the #1 prospect and Cleveland needs him. St. Louis already has a high pick at McCoy's spot (Adam Carriker), but McCoy presents obvious value and Carriker hasn't performed. Tampa continues to lack that big-time WR, and Bryant could be that presence for promising QB Josh Freeman. Davis fits Detroit's philosophy (and I think he'll rise post-combine) and Sam Bradford barely edges out Jake Locker, as Washington needs a QB who can start immediately.

Picks 6-10

#6 Kansas City - Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
#7 Buffalo - Russell Okung (LT, Oklahoma State)
#8 Oakland - Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
#9 Seattle - Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
#10 Denver - Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)

Kansas City gets put in a tough spot, as they have many of the pieces (Brandon Albert, Tyson Jackson, Brandon Flowers, etc.) but have to support those pieces and wait for them to mature. Ideally they'd pick a quarterback, but Cassell's contract prohibits them from giving up on him this early. Williams could see his stock rise as Monte Kiffin's connections come through, and he fits the role of a 3-4 NT quite well.

Buffalo is a complete wildcard here, they could go Quarterback but until they figure out their coaching situation I don't want to draft a system-specific player for them. Okung is high on a lot of boards (not mine, though I haven't yet scouted him as a senior) and makes some sense here. Locker is a quintessential Raiders pick and while he isn't ready to start, I don't expect that to stop Al Davis. Rolando McClain is one of my favorite players in the draft, and would be my pick if Seattle was planning to switch to a 3-4. Denver gets a steal.

Seattle doesn't do poorly here, either. While I generally would not pick a player I haven't scouted, I keep hearing awesome things about Haden's physical talents... and talent is a lot of the cornerback position. With Marcus Trufant hurt and playing pretty poorly, there isn't a lot of long-term security here. Cornerbacks are like WRs... you never have too many in this day and age.

Picks 11-15

#11 San Francisco - Trent Williams (OL, Oklahoma)
#12 Houston - Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
#13 San Francisco - CJ Spiller (RB, Clemson)
#14 Tennessee - Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
#15 Pittsburgh - Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)

Trent Williams is too good of a run-blocker to fall much farther, and his troubles sliding his feet would be mitigated at SF as he could be a guard for a while. Houston really only has Mario Williams as a pass-rusher on the DL, and even though I really like Connor Barwin I don't see them passing up Morgan's versatility. San Fran again presents a tough choice, and even though they love Frank Gore, I think CJ Spiller could be a possibility here. The 49ers seem confused as to whether or not they're smashmouth or spread on offense, and this way they can be both. If I felt any of the "pass-rushing" OLBs were worth it, I'd go there, but Ricky Sapp (Clemson) and Sergio Kindle (Texas) have thoroughly disappointed me. Tennessee's defense went from great to awful in a year, and while they really need to address Haynesworth's departure, I don't see a tackle capable of doing that for them, so they'll add some youth, athleticism, and production to their decent LB group. While it pains me to give Pittsburg Mike Iupati, who I feel will be a stud, it seems very possible at pick # 15.

Picks 16-20

#16 Atlanta - Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
#17 NY Jets - Damian Williams (WR, USC)
#18 Baltimore - Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
#19 Miami - Brandon Spikes (LB, Florida)
#20 Jacksonville - Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)

I largely agree with Rob's choices at #16 and #17. It wouldn't surprise me if LaFell went way earlier, but he'd be a great choice here for Baltimore, who desperately needs WR help. Spikes gives Miami a tough leader for their defense, and though I love Channing Crowder I hear that the Miami FO does not. I could not in good conscience have Jacksonville take Tebow, but then I believe he will kill his stock at the senior bowl when coaches get to see him outside Florida's offense. The opposite could also happen, though.

Picks 21-25

#21 New England - Everson Griffen (LB, USC)
#22 NY Giants - Eric Berry (FS/CB, Tennessee)
#23 Green Bay - Charles Brown (OT, USC)
#24 Arizona - Ricky Sapp (OLB, Clemson)
#25 Philadelphia - Jahvid Best (RB, Cal)

New England needs linebacker help so badly it actually hurts to watch them on defense. Everson is a bigger OLB, but New England loves size on defense. New York needs secondary help and Berry offers versatility at S and CB. Green Bay's OL has had major problems and since I don't think we'll see Bulaga declare, I think Brown is the guy for them. Arizona's pass rush turns on and off, but they have the luxury of drafting a high-risk high-reward prospect here, though I'm sure they'd rather get OL. Philadelphia was a little tougher for me, but with Brian Westbrook mulling retirement I could see them drafting a possible replacement - and yes, I know they have LeSean McCoy. Neither back can handle 300+ carries, but together they help a stacked Philadelphia team.

Picks 26-32

#26 Dallas - Taylor Mays (S, USC)
#27 Seattle - Jonathan Dwyer (RB, Georgia Tech)
#28 Cincinnati - Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
#29 San Diego - Jared Odrick (DE, Penn State)
#30 Minnesota - Syd'Quan Thompson (CB, Cal)
#31 New Orleans - Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
#32 Indianapolis - Jerry Hughes (DE, TCU)

Mays just seems like a Jerry Jones player and at this point presents good value. Cincinnati never seems to have a good TE... I think getting someone like Gresham could take the heat off of Ochocinco and the young WRs they have. I know nothing about Odrick, but San Deigo needs front-7 help and he seems like their type of defensive end, having played defensive tackle at Penn State. After originally assigning Minnesota Weatherspoon, who actually went to Tennessee earlier (oops!), I decided to go with Syd'Quan Thompson out of Cal. I think, due to system, the Vikings would have Thompson higher than Patrick Robinson, who went to New Orleans. New Orleans seems like a team constantly needing cornerbacks, and Robinson is too good to go much later than this. Hughes is a guy a lot of teams might look at as a OLB in a 3-4, but Indianapolis would be wise to consider him at defensive end - one of the only teams both willing to take a smaller DE and willing to draft a small-school player.

I think I can hear Rob's unhappiness several thousand miles away with the Dwyer selection, but I actually think this could be a steal. While I am disappointed that I didn't get a chance to have Seattle draft Iupati, Denver's pick was just too low and Seattle's too high to take him. Dwyer played through an injury earlier in the year but in looking at 2008 film and later-2009 film, Dwyer has good speed, a great frame, and would provide some "umph" to Justin Forsett's slashing. I'm concerned about the offense, but Dwyer was fairly successful in part-time duty as a true Freshman in 2007, before Paul Johnson arrived at Georgia Tech, showing at least decent vision and capability to function outside the wacky system GT runs.

Note: The exclusion of Carlos Dunlap is intentional - I've heard from a reliable source that several NFL scouts can't even justify taking him in the first two rounds. It wouldn't surprise me if Dunlap blew away teams at the combine, but until that happens I'm going off of what film is telling people.


Mind of no mind said...

I'd be happy if we came out of the draft with the best DB in the whole draft. Not only can you not have too many CBs, but given that we face the Cards twice a year, and the early showing by Crabtree is looking very good for a rookie so we might need someone to match up on him for years to come.

I have to say though, if Spiller really did get picked up by the 49ers, that'd have to be a real heartbreaker for Rob considering how much he liked Crabtree for the Seahawks last year and now he seems to be liking Spiller almost as much this year. Having to watch both guys, if they flourish as expected, punish the Hawks twice yearly for passing on them would probably be very painful!

Also it's interesting that you both have the Seahawks passing on Eric Berry and Taylor Mays with both available at #9 and missing Mays by 1 pick with the #27 pick. I personally have no problem with this if the Hawks determine that they're a little overrated as you guys believe. But no matter what, I think you'd have a lot of Hawk fans screaming bloody murder if this happens. But at least they won't have Ruskell to blame for it!

kearly said...

I definitely like the Haden choice. If the board fell that way I'd attempt to trade down, but otherwise, Haden is the most obvious pick. CB is a minor need and Haden is the consensus best player at his position. It reminds me a lot of the Trufant pick in 2003, and that worked out great.

I cringed when I saw Dwyer as your Denver pick, but after looking at the notable alternatives, I was more understanding:

DE Carlos Dunlap
DE Greg Hardy
DT Terrance Cody (if Seattle goes 3-4)
DT Tyson Alualu
OT Bruce Campbell
OT Anthony Davis (RT)
OT Jason Fox
S Reshad Jones
S Earl Thomas (if he declares)
WR Arrelious Benn
WR Golden Tate
QB Tony Pike
QB Colt McCoy
RB Jonathan Dwyer
G Rodney Hudson (if he declares)
G Mike Johnson

Most of those picks carry 2nd round grades. I'll cover some notables.

Dwyer: Physically, he reminds me of Frank Gore, except bigger and faster. Dwyer runs like his legs are tied together, but he still has very good speed and power anyway. I'd feel better about this pick with the teams 2nd rounder, if he's still available.

Dunlap: I'd stay away, but if he's still there in round 2, I'd strongly consider him, even if he's just another Calais Campbell.

Hardy: Hardy is one of the better 4-3 DE's in the draft and would be good value. Only problem is that his scouting report reads a lot like Darryl Tapp, and I don't really see the point of drafting a DE who isn't a clear upgrade.

Campbell: Good value, fits a need, but injury prone at an area where Seattle simply can't afford to invest any more in injury prone players.

Alualu: 3 tech for a 4-3 defense. I'm not terribly impressed with him, but he's been productive and played for Cal, same school as Mebane.

Jones: Can play strong or free safety. Might be best safety on the board too.

Hudson: Assuming he declares, he'd probably be my pick.

Fox: ZBS friendly LT. A slight reach.

Benn: Profile kind of reminds me of K-Rob. Good physical attributes and high upside, but crappy hands.

Tate: A reach, but should probably be considered. Seems like a safe pick.

McCoy/Pike: I wouldn't like to see either of them drafted this early, but I'm sure they'd be considered. The Seahawks are desperate for a QB.

Anyway, looking at that list- it just makes me want to trade up for Suh (or Bradford) even more! I dislike the Dwyer pick, but sadly, there is no clear superior alternative that is a lock to declare.

So after looking into it, though the Seahawks fail to address QB and OL yet again in the 1st round, I have to admit those were pretty good choices for the Seahawks considering the options.

Rob Staton said...

Love the reference to Dwyer, Kyle :)

Essentially he's a tough prospect to review because of the system he's in. I've not seen any burst, an ability to cut and break off or an ability to outrun anyone over distance. He has size, but I've not even seen him beat up a team through the middle - he takes what's there and not much more.

Having said that, you throw on the tape from last year when he's leaner and suddenly your interest ignites again. But this year I've got to say he's been one of the bigger disappointments (despite his production).

How he works out at the combine could be crucial. I like the idea of taking a running back, but I need to be convinced Dwyer is the back I thought he could be and not the mid-round pick I think he might be now.

Anonymous said...

Would look to trade down from frist first rd pick (get a second first rounder next year too). If not, I like the Haden and Dwyer picks, but I would make sure we were in a decent position to get a OT in the early second round. Also, unless we are moving to 3-4, we should look to trade Tatupu for a 2nd round pick and get a de or s in the 2nd as well. First 4 picks would be (CB/RB/OT/S or DE).

Anonymous said...

Kyle, you have Sean Weatherspoon going twice, FYI

Misfit said...

Cleveland needs Suh? With Shaun Rogers at NT, do you see Suh playing 3-4 DE, or am I missing something? Cleveland has bigger needs than a 4-3 3-tech, which I think Suh is best suited.

Gore, Coffee, and Spiller? That's a lot invested in the RB position for SF. I don't see it. SF needs OL the most, IMO. Can't see them passing a top-notch OT in favor of yet another RB. Remember they took Coffee in last year's 3rd round. I also think Singletary likes smashmouth players better and Spiller is not that kind of power runner he would seek, let alone the talent already at the position. That scenario is far-fetched, to me.

I'd be thrilled with Dwyer or Spiller for Seattle. I still think they have to find a way to draft one of the QBs in round 1, even if it means sacrificing a pick or two somewhere else, or in the future.

Kyle Rota said...

Mind: If Berry makes it to the Denver pick, IMO he's the obvious selection. I'm less keen on Mays at the moment, but I haven't seen much of him. I'm concerned he's an athlete, not a football player, and what I have seen hasn't shown otherwise. I'll be scouting Mays at some point and will adjust my grade accordingly.

Kearly - Looking at Dwyer in 2008, he runs much more naturally. With rumors that he added weight (unconfirmed off a GT fansite) and his injury, I'm not sure we've seen him 100%. I popped in GT vs Florida State in 2008 and was very impressed with Dwyer (and not impressed with Hudson at all, he spends way too much time on the ground, but given sophomore status I'm not making any conclusions from it) as an athlete. In one of the 2008 games he also made a great catch down the sideline on a pass - the kind of catch I'd be moderately impressed with from a WR.

Dunlap is intriuging, as is Jones (I'm not sure he'll declare, I keep hearing he struggles in coverage but when I scout other Georgia players he makes plays). But what I hear about Dunlap concerns the bejeebus out of me. When a DUI isn't going to hurt your draft stock much because it's already pretty weak, that's not a good sign.

Rob - Yeah, Dwyer is a toughie. I'm waiting to see what Dwyer we see at the Combine before I decide what film I watch. The system is annoying but only to a degree - reads in the ZBS are not terribly complicated for the RB, and really only rudimentary cuts are used. In 2008 he showed the ability to outrun LBs and maintain space with trailing S, which is enough for a 225+lber. GT gets him the ball in space quite a bit, given his role, but it still doesn't look like a pro-system... at least we see the athleticism.

What's odd is I've seen Dwyer listed anywhere from 5'11 to 6'1, so that'll be interesting. A big time name to watch come the combine.

1st coherent anonymous (don't recommend clicking the link in the first anonymous post, haven't do it but it seems a little sketchy to me): I wouldn't be against trading down in that scenario either, but I don't project trades in mocks. I hope Denver tails off a bit so we get a 20th-ish pick instead of late 20s, that'll increase our chances of getting a guy we want significantly, as usually about 20 guys receive true 1st-round grades from NFL teams. I think we'd be in a decent position to grab another OL the way things stand right now.

2nd Anonymous: Well that's embarassing. I don't feel so bad about how late I had Weatherspoon going to Minnesota, at least. I'll update that immediately, thanks!

Kyle Rota said...

Misfit: IMO, Suh is a prototype 3-4 DE. Mangini (like Crennel before him) runs the Patriot style 3-4, where the Ends are big and strong and somewhat athletic - Suh fits the Patriot profile (6'4+, ~300lbs, long arms, decent athlete) perfectly. Think Richard Seymour. Suh's lack of explosion make me hesitant to place him high as a 4-3 DT, unless he adds weight and shifts to the 1 technique role (actually like him as a 2-technique, but few teams really line their DT directly on guard as it leaves the C free to harass LBs and/or protect against the 3-tech). Not that he couldn't do it, but I don't think he'd be dominant doing so. The best 3-techniques are all very explosive guys.

I already gave SF one OT, I can't really justify ANOTHER considering the 49ers really already have 3 decent tackles. Williams presents great value at guard as well, which is why I included him. While they have Coffee and Gore, they don't have a home-run threat and the team really hasn't yet decided if they're spread or smashmouth - Smith is so much better out of the shotgun they may shift their scheme to suit their players (we're not used to it in Seattle, but other teams do it). And even teams that are run-heavy use speed backs (Tennessee, Pittsburgh) quite a bit - smashmouth is more an offensive-line style than a RB style.

I agree about QB. It's a critical need for Seattle, I've been clamoring for a QB since before the 2008 draft. However, QB especially is a position where you have to actually LIKE the guy you select. I'm higher on Jimmy Clausen than Rob, but I couldn't justify him at 9 and can't justify anyone else available at 27.

Misfit said...

Thanks for the feedback, Kyle. It's interesting stuff, and you help me keep an open mind about how I see players. I thought Suh was explosive, making him a good 3-tech candidate to move Mebane back to his old position (not that we draft high enough for Suh, anyway). Are there other 3-tech tackles you like in the first few rounds.

Right now, I like Bradford the best of the QBs. I hope we can land him, but a lot could change with all the pre-draft process. I'm not sold on the rest, and have a nasty Notre Dame QB bias after Mirer, Quinn. I hope to land a QB that can throw downfield. Being limited like we are now with Matt is frustrating.

Thanks for the insight! :)

Anonymous said...


Without trading down, we need OT for sure. With our other pick it needs to be one of the following: CB/S/RB. Those three positions are almost as important as the OT. We need better coverage to win our division (Haden/Thomas) would help. We also need a thumper like Dwyer. Your thoughts.

Kyle Rota said...

Misfit - I really haven't gotten to the DTs. I scouted Suh in the summer and was incredibly impressed, the one thing he isn't is explosive. He's extremely good with his hands, very strong, a good athlete, has a high motor, gets his hands up... but off the snap he isn't that quick.

The one name I hear a lot is Gerald McCoy of Oklahoma. I wasn't terribly impressed by him the one game I did, but he's definitely a very explosive athlete who is also supposed to have a good motor and work ethic. He's strong enough that OU used him as a DE at times in the 3-4 as well, but IMO he'll be a 4-3 3-technique.

Anon - I largely agree, except that we can't pigeonhole ourselves into OT if there isn't a good tackle for us. Hopefully we can get a OL we like, but it may not be something that makes sense. Ideally we'd grab OT early, hopefully the board doesn't fight us in that regard. As long as we get very good players who can start by 2011 at ANY position of need, I'll be happy.