Monday, 28 December 2009
Rob Rang's latest mock draft
Rob Rang has updated his mock draft on CBS Sportsline. The Seahawks select Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State) with their first pick and Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State) with the second choice. Personally, I don't like the Mathews selection. Having watched him recently against Wyoming, there was nothing on view that suggested he'd be worthy of a first round grade. Mathews has one big year of production but lacks elite breakaway speed or size. He'll take what's on offer and shows nice cutback ability but not enough to suggest he can be a big playmaker. As a third or fourth round pick I think you'd be getting par value for Mathews. If he goes in round one I'll be surprised, but then who was talking about Donald Brown this time last year?
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31 comments:
Wow, I would be very unhappy with that draft. Much better off taking Haden and Brown if it fell like that. Really hoping to get a shot at Morgan though.
One thing about this mock that I believe we will see happening on draft day is the lack of QB's at the top. I think people were starting to take it for granted that teams will take a QB high just because its a need. If the Hawks want a QB, I think they'll have a shot at getting Claussen or Bradford at 22.
I'd be pretty happy with Okung, but Matthews would be an absolute joke pick. He belongs nowhere near the top 2 rounds. The only RB worthy of a 1st round pick is CJ Spiller of Jahvid Best (late round 1).
Personally, I'm really intrigued by Bruce Campbell. I know of the injury history but with how bad the Hawks are, I would love to get a high upside LT who has a chance to become dominant. We would certainly have time for him to develop as it is clear we are not contenders in the near future. His POA numbers are great according to the Draft Lab (espn).
Personally, I'd love to see us trade down in the mid teens and pick up an extra pick.
1a. Bruce Campbell
1b. Mike Iupati
2. The best RB or WR or DL or DB available. Thinking Benn, Best, Dwyer, Lindley, Robinson, Odrick, Romeus, etc.
Rob and Kyle, am I crazy for thinking that Golden Tate has no business belonging in the 1st round? He's undersized and I'd be shocked if he runs anything under 4.55. His production is great but there are a ton of WR who put up big numbers in college. Your thoughts on Tate? Personally I'd be very pissed if he or Clausen ended up a seahawk.
Annonymous - I certainly agree with you and I'm pretty sure Kyle feels the same way. Tate had impressive production this year but he isn't worthy of first round consideration and I'll be very surprised if he goes any higher than the second. He just doesn't have mind blowing size or speed, he body catches a lot... he's not someone I think you can use like Harvin in the NFL.
I agree that taking a RB (other than Spiller) with one of our 1st rounders would e a big mistake. We need to rebuild the O Line and the D Line. I would not be unhappy to see all of our first three picks used on the O or D Line. I think we can pick up at least one starter in FA and can concentrate on building one area of weakness this year. It is going to take multiple drafts and a few SMART FA moves to build back up. I think the best thing the Hawks can do is addition by subtraction. Lets dump the dead weight and bad attitudes on the roster and lose with youth and energy until we can build back up.
Mike Kelly
Hey Mike,
I think you make a very good point. This draft will largely be about laying the foundations for the future. It isn't impossible to turn a teams fortunes round quickly, but Seattle needs to concentrate on building a structure. They have to improve both lines and get some guys on the roster who put points on the board.
I'm surprised to see Mathews this high in a mock draft and it's something I haven't seen so far. As I've said the last week or so - he doesn't own the kind of skills you would expect from a first round back (size, speed, gamebreaking ability). He has a years production but I don't think that'll be enough alone to make him first round material. He's more of a 3-4 round kind of guy.
CJ Spiller is a lock for round one. Jahvid Best has an outside chance. I'd say Joe McKnight was the third guy on my list with a second round grading.
I like the Okung pick but if you want a Matthews style RB stick with Oklahoma State players and select Keith Toston at the end of the draft.
I have to admit I'm not a huge Okung fan. This isn't a great draft for offensive tackles and in a bad year I would certainly rank Anthony Davis ahead of him and quite possibly Bruce Campbell. Could he go in the top 10-15? Possibly, because there's a premium on the position. We could still see 3-4 guys go in that area even if, compared to other recent drafts, the quality isn't the same. But it also wouldn't surprise me if Okung fell into the 20's.
I would hope we trade down into the 12-15 area if looking for O-line help. Also if KC can beat Denver then we will have another pick in the teens. That can give us some room to wheel and deal and maybe pick up some extra pics while still getting an OL/DL or OG that we want. I also would prefer Davis to Okung because we need to gamble on greatness instead of choosing the "safe" route that Ruskell took. That road has resulted in a team full of choir boys that can't get it done on Sunday.
Mike Kelly
2010 Draft: Pray someone is desperate for Bradford or Clausen. Trade down to the teens....
1a. CJ Spiller
1b. Bruce Campbell
2. Pray that Iupati falls, if not, draft BPA between DL, DB, or WR. I'd love to see WR Benn because he brings size and speed, something we've never had.
I recognize that Campbell would be somewhat of a project. I think it's safe to say we have time to develop some guys and I'd rather take a chance on a guy who can become a premiere LT over someone who is viewed as a "sure thing, albeit average."
The Seahawks have gotten to this point because of no risk taking. I am not saying to be reckless, but I think it's time to take a chance on high upside guys and give them time to live up to it. If we are smart, we will view this as a 3 year project to build the lines, find a QB (finger's crossed for Locker next year), and overall create an identity for this football team.
Campbell grades out well in the running game, but I will study some tape and see if he has the potential to be a solid pass protector. That will define his status, because right now he's regarded as a better run blocker. He's athletic though from reports I've read, so that's a start.
Iupati is someone I'll be scouting this week when Idaho are in action. Kyle did a great write up on him (published 12/24) and he could be worthy of one of Seattle's first rounders. It wouldn't be a stretch to see Charles Brown drop into round two - as highly as I've rated him - being able to bring in Iupati, Brown and another (Spiller? Haden? a defensive lineman?) could be considered a success as things stand right now. But there's still a long way to go. At least this time next week we'll know where the Hawks will be picking with that first selection.
I probably don't draft Tate at all. While I like his YAC and catch-radius (he makes grabs that some 6'2 WRs don't make), he is only interested in running good routes about 1/3rd of the time and he is USELESS on running plays. I'm a big believer in blocking from the WRs (turns 10 yard runs to 30 yard runs), and Tate is the worst blocker I've ever seen talked about as a legitimate WR prospect.
I'm surprised about Matthews, but he actually interests me a lot. He has the frame to handle a lot of inside carries, decent enough speed, and great vision. I like my backs to work inside and off tackle a lot, so Matthews is someone I want to sit down and grade. The problem I have right now is that Seattle could be changing their offensive/defensive systems, and Matthews might work well in a traditional WCO but he may not be the best choice in a spread-heavy offense.
Campbell scares the bejeebus out of me. There are two lines of thought: One is that a guy who is hurt all the time in college will be hurt all the time in the NFL. The other is that with more emphasis spent on weight rooms, better nutrition options, etc. some guys will be fine. I'm pretty firmly in the first camp, but then again I was sure Adrian Peterson would have spent half his games out with injury, so clearly there is reason to hope Campbell could stay healthy... Even if I can't figure out how.
I'm just settling down to watch Georgia vs Texas A&M. Very interested to see Jerrod Johnson again. He was impressive against Texas.
Rob,
Do you think the Hawks could trade up in the draft to take Suh overall at number 1?
I think he is the clear choice for #1 overall in the 2010 class and I would love it if we could get him.
What, do you think, is the possibility that the new GM cleaning house. If he does clean house how will he have to address the draft to fill those holes?
Rob,
What is the possibility of the Hawks drafting Toby Gehrhart (spell check)?
I would love to see a two headed monster like Toby and Forsett, kind of like Jacobs and Bradshaw for the Giants.
How about drafting some freakishly athletic guys with our first 3 picks? We clearly have time to develop them as we are in rebuilding mode.
Draft OT Bruce Campbell (despite injury history he could develop into a freak OT), OG Mike Iupati (saw him knock the poop out of Rey Maualuga), and WR Demariyus Thomas (6'3" 230 lbs + change on both measurements) and actually be able to "out physical" some teams for once. You can't teach size and speed but you certainly can refine technique. All 3 players mentioned could certainly provide a presence that we have not had in a long time.
Kyle and Rob, what are your thoughts on Campbell and Thomas skill wise? I already know the concerns with Campbell's injury history and Thomas' offensive system but I'm wondering what you guys think about what kind of players they can become given the time and patience to develop.
I think it is certainly advantageous to be a rebuilding team because we are not concerned with immediate results. I certainly do not want to make a complete risk out of our picks but I think the lack of risk taking has certainly got the Hawks to this point. It's time to establish a new identity and I'd like to see that being a physically dominant team.
-Matt
Manboycrushonsuh - I would be surprised if anyone traded for the #1 overall pick. It's become a weight around a team's shoulder simply due to the money involved. Suh is a brilliant prospect, but I don't think the Seahawks are in a position to spend two first rounders on one guy unless they're the next great QB prospect - and as good as Suh is he isn't that guy.
Annonymous - Seattle will surely target a running back in either free agency or the draft. There's no reason to believe they won't consider Gerhart. Having said that, I think it's important to temper expectations for him in the NFL. Yes - he had a great year for Stanford. But I think he's that LeRon McClain type runner, who might be used more as a full back and committee guy. In fairness, Brandon Jacobs is in a different class when it comes to size, speed and mobility. Gerhart could have success in a good running team as a spell guy, but the Seahawks offense is so bad right now I think he'd struggle to be productive. Seattle needs speed.
Matt - I wouldn't be against drafting some athletic freaks. Seattle needs to rebuild a foundation - repair both lines, long term option at QB, a new running back and get better at WR. They won't fill every need this year, so start at the areas that are best served in 2010.
Personally I've seen little of Bruce Campbell due to a lack of Maryland footage and the fact the one chance I had to watch them earlier this year - he was injured. I'm striving to get some tape, but right now I'm working off reports from other people. Chris Steuber (Scout.com) says he's a second round guy. Others say he's top ten. I need to see him for myself. Likewise for Thomas, I've seen little. Apologies for not being much help, Kyle might know a bit more than I do.
Benn at Illinois intrigues me. I think he could still be a first round pick despite his lack of production this year. If Seattle are looking for a steal in round two who can be a playmaker, he's worth watching.
But you're absolutely right Matt about needing an identity. We don't know who the Seahawks are right now and it's hard to see what direction this team is going. Whoever is running this franchise on and off the field next year - they absolutely have to nail that identity and lay out what kind of team they want to be.
From Texashawk,
2 questions:
First when I try to use my google account that identifies me as texashawk it says that my password is not good. I then reset up the account and it did it to me again so my password is right but google is not accepting it. Any advise?
Also on seahawkaddicts.com tam mentioned Ingram as the next possible big threat offensive weapon comming out of college. Who is this person I did not find him on your mock draft. Do you agree with this assessment? What position does he play?
Thank you I always enjoy your analysis of players especially because I do not follow college ball.
Rob,
Out of the top three runningbacks: Best, Spiller, Dwyer. Who do you think best fit what Seattle needs? Who do you think we have most chance of getting?
Texashawk, Mark Ingram is the runningback out of Alabama and he was this years Heismen winner.
Regarding your google acount, I'm not entirely sure but try to add numbers in your password.
Texashawk - with regard your google account I'm not sure what the issue is. I log in via a 'Yahoo' account so if you have a yahoo email address, I'd suggest trying that.
As Jayce says, Mark Ingram is the running back from Alabama and the recent Heisman winner. I've not included him in my mock draft because he is a sophomore and not legible to declare for the 2010 draft. He'll likely enter the 2011 draft. It's a difficult situation for Ingram because his stock will never be higher than right now. Next year I think he'll lose a lot of carries and when all is said and done, I don't think he's going to be a top draft choice. He's a work horse rather than explosive.
Jayce - I think Spiller is the epitomy of what Seattle needs on offense. We haven't got a guy who is a threat to score every time the ball is in his hands. We haven't got elite speed at RB and the fact he's so good as a pass catcher, he'd be just as dangerous split out wide. Our kick returns this year have been impotent - Spiller would also offer a playmaker in that sense.
I think the Seahawks could begin to rebuild their offense with Spiller in the backfield. I think he could be Chris Johnson good. He'll need a wingman for sure, a bigger back perhaps. But they can be found.
The only problem is you probably have to take him with that first pick in the top ten. He won't be around into the late teens or early 20's. For that reason I think at this stage it's unlikely Seattle will have the chance to get Spiller unless whoever the new GM is firmly believes he warrants the 7th overall pick. That's quite high for a RB, even one as good as Spiller.
Jahvid Best has similar game breaking abilities. I'm a fan - but I prefer Spiller. I think Best will go at the end of round one or early round two. He might end up being a better fit for Seattle if they want a playmaker but don't want to pay top ten money for Spiller.
I'm not a big fan of Jonathan Dwyer. I think he's added bad weight this year and lost some speed and agility. He looked heavy all year and lacked any kind of explosion. He's non existent in the passing game. His system affords the ability to put up big numbers, but I'm unconvinced. I think in his current state he's no better than a 3-4th round bigger back type. If he slims down, runs well at the combine and shows greater athleticism, he could get back into contention to go earlier.
Rob,
If Cleveland beats Jacksonville next week and Seattle loses, that will give us the same record. In that scenario, with Cleveland's strength of schedule, does that mean that we would pick 6th? I realize that we could potentially jump Washington as well, but I don't see them beating San Diego on Sunday.
As far as Spiller...he looked amazing in the bowl game. I'm definately on the Spiller bandwagon. I hope there is a way we could pick him up, but I would be okay with Best as well.
That would be correct USAFANARC. The earliest Seattle can still pick is 5th overall, but that is dependant on a Seahawks loss and victories for Cleveland and Washington.
Lets not forget that we may be able to fix at least one of our ned positions in FA. I would hope we go after a YOUNG FA like DE Ray Edwards from Minn (we can poison pill him) or LT Charles Johnson from Indy. We can fill a few needs that way then have some flex room in the draft for some stud like potential players instead of locking in to a position. Whomever our new GM is I cannot believe he could do a worse job getting free agents than Ruskell did.
Also Texashawk has the same trouble as me logging in from google. I just sign anonymous and put my name.
Mike Kelly
Joe mignight xould be a good pick but I like spiller better he would be an immediate impact if our next fm is smart enough to take him
Thomas
The Washington win over San Diego might not be that improbable considering the Chargers have already got their 1st round bye locked down and probably won't play starters.
Rob,
I'm liking the combination or Spiller, Iupati, and Benn as our picks.
Our weapons would be a great combination of size and speed....
Housh, Benn, Butler, Carlson
Spiller, Forsett
Add Iupati and a big time FA LT to the line and we're back in business.
But on the flipside...I think If Berry slips to us we have to take him. Him and AC for the next ten years!!!! I couldn't be mad at that.
What you think???
I don't think we will be able to find a big time LT in the FA. Teams very rarely let them go. But if the scenario did come true, I would be a happy fan. Though I'm iffy that hawks would try to grab a WR.
Rob, after reading a few other mock drafts, they have Bruce all over the place. Some but him in the late first round some put him right after Okung. Do you think he will be the second LT taken?
Chavac - I hope San Diego don't rest too many guys... I've just won through to two finals in fantasy leagues both with Philip Rivers as my quarterback!
Sthagreat - Personally I'm not a big fan of Eric Berry. I've written about this a few times (all previous articles are archived down the right hand side bar). Basically, his tackling is a major concern and I've also got major problems with him in coverage against tight ends and bigger receivers. No doubt when the ball is in his hands, he can make big plays. But getting his hands on the ball won't be as easy in the NFL. His long term future might be at cornerback - but how high can you take him for that? I think he's very over rated right now and contrary to what most people project, he won't be a top ten pick.
Jayce - he might be the first offensive tackle taken. Right now it's unclear how the OT's will shape out. Personally I think Russell Okung is only worth a mid-late first rounder, but a lot of people have him in the top five. I've seen good and bad reports on Anthony Davis and from what I've seen, he could be a top ten pick or he could suffer a slight fall. Bruce Campbell is someone I want to see more of.
I agree with you jayce, it will be tough to find a big time LT in free agency. I would even be happy with a solid one that would be reliable. Next to Iupati and max unger, we'll be alright. I'm so skeptical of using high draft picks on a future LT unless your getting an absolute stud...For example: Michael Oher... So many lineman don't live up to their pick I'd rather wait until we're farther along in the draft process and have a chance to evaluate Okung, Williams, Davis and Campbell a little bit more before we seriously think about drafting one of them.
Rob,
You have an interresting opinion on berry...I haven't heard too many people say Berry might slip but I'm definitely goin to read your article about him...What do think Seattle needs more....A dominant DT...Or a Pass Rushing DE...Or should we go with a DB instead?
I think Seattle's biggest need out of the three things you listed is a pass rushing DE. They have one very good DT (Mebane) and some talent at DB (Wilson, Trufant). They don't have the kind of defensive end that consistently gets to the QB. That is a real concern.
But then this is a team with so many needs. They must find playmakers on both sides of the ball - particularly greater offensive threats at WR and RB. They need a long term answer at QB. They need to get better on the offensive line. The fact it'll be so difficult to fill even half of the teams needs this off season - they need to lay the foundations down for the future and hope that something sparks. Playing in the NFC West, it's not impossible to right a ship quickly. But you need to be heading in the right direction. Seattle need to find that direction. In the short term, they should probably look to improve both lines and find someone who can make things happen on offense.
If I were the Seahawks, I'd be more concerned with the offensive side first. There are times where the defense makes great plays, however its useless if your offense cant do anything. Like Rob said we definitely need a playmaker that put fear in the opponents defense. But most definitely we need to pressure their QB more. If we cant find stud DE from draft, maybe we can pick one up from FA?
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