Monday, 14 December 2009

Todd McShay's first 2010 mock draft

Scouts Inc and ESPN's Todd McShay today published his first 2010 mock draft. You'll need to be an ESPN Insider to see it in full, but for those of you who aren't I'll highlight some of the key talking points. McShay has Jake Locker going first overall to the St Louis Rams - certainly an eye catching start. Ndamukong Suh goes to the Buccs second overall with Eric Berry in third place to Cleveland. Without wishing to sound like a stuck record, I'll be positively stunned if Berry goes this early.

Seattle's first pick is at ninth overall and they take Andre Davis (OT, Rutgers). McShay: "Davis comes with a bit of baggage, but there isn't an offensive lineman in the 2010 class with a better combination of size and agility." The baggage he speaks of is the weight issues Davis has endured during his time with the Scarlet Knights. I wrote this report on Davis earlier in the year when Tim Ruskell was still the team's GM.

The second pick by the Seahawks is Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame) taken 26th overall. McShay: "Current starter Matt Hasselbeck is 34 years old and backup Seneca Wallace doesn't appear to be the long-term answer. There are concerns about Clausen's release and he doesn't have ideal arm strength, but his mobility and accuracy underneath would make him a good fit for a West Coast offense." Considering the Seahawks offensive struggles, particularly yesterday in Houston, I'm not entirely sure they'll be maintaining the current status quo on offense - so placing Clausen as an ideal fit with Seattle may be ill-advised right now.

But McShay's mock backs up my own personal instincts about Clausen expressed in my most recent mock draft. I had him falling out of round one - largely to prove a point that I think he's vastly over rated and not anywhere close to being the top 5-10 pick most mocks have him at right now. McShay cites the same kind of issues that I did - namely his side arm release. Essentially, if he falls to the #26 pick and Seattle didn't take him there - how does he stay in round one? Unless the Minnesota Vikings want a long term option at QB, McShay's mock is basically portraying the same possibility as mine.

So it's Clausen to Seattle - but perhaps more telling is the further evidence that opinion is starting to shift on Clausen and that perhaps he won't be the top draft choice most people are predicting.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think we will have to extend Hass regardless of which QB we draft. I hope we spend at least one of those day one picks on an OT/OG, as well as a significant FA upgrade, or it won't matter who is playing QB.

For me, the best case scenario for the Hawks is striking gold in the next two drafts to restock our talent on the O and D lines. We ened to drop our overpaid vets and, at least overpay for youth and potential.

That being said, I like the draft McShay has. Wonder how much it will change after the all star gaes/combines etc..,

Mike Kelly

Rob Staton said...

From a personal opinion I dislike the Clausen pick. I've been into it in great detail on the blog in the past but even at #26 I'd be pained to invest in him as the future of the franchise. I'm also unconvinced by Anthony Davis.

Michael said...

Rob;

Have you ever reviewed your past evaluations after 3-4 years? I love to look back at the Kipers/Kerpinsky(sp) guys and see if their evaluations are on target. Makes for interesting reading and a good guide to how close we should follow projections.

Rob Staton said...

Hi Michael,

Previously I'd only ever watched college football for enjoyment and never really put any obvious thoughts down in writing. I could probably say: "I thought this guy would be good and he is" but you'd have to take my word for it!

Having done the blog for over a year now, it's certainly something I'll look to do in the future because everything's archived. That way I can back up any good/bad projections.

Neil Christensen said...

Locker is staying for his senior season: http://www.gohuskies.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/121409aaa.html

There goes that mock...

Anonymous said...

Trade Tatupu for a second rd pick. Trade back with our first first rounder (because at #9, top de/s/cb will all be gone) and get an additional 1st rd pick next year (in hopes of Locker). With two late 1st rounders (20 & 25 let's say), we draft an OT (Brown/Williams/Bulaga) and either G (Iutali) or RB (Dwyer). With two second round picks get (CB)Robinson and (S) (Burnett or Chancellor). What do you think?


E in Fairwood

nightwulf said...

Just say "no" to Clausen. (remember the last time we picked a golden domer at QB in the 1st?)Not really impressed with Davis, either, but then again, we've been bottom feeders for two years now, and we're from a small market, so I expect that McShay spends more thought on other teams...

Rob Staton said...

E in Fairwood - I think it'll be difficult to pull off all those trades, but you never know I guess - who saw the Denver trade coming last year? I'd be surprised if Seattle traded Tatupu and even despite the pro-bowls, I don't see which team would spend a second rounder on him right now. The Eagles maybe? I guess they've felt the wrath of Lofa enough to take notice...

The Seahawks could do worse than focus on a specific area, such as the offensive line, in round one. The team is in a rebuild, so attacking one area of the team might be a good idea specifically on offense. I like Charles Brown but he needs to add weight and show he can be NFL size. Right now he's a project with upside. Bulaga has done a job over powering college d-lineman for Iowa, but I'd need to be convinced that when he gets to the NFL and faces more equal physical match ups he won't just disappear. I think he's got the potential to be a very good right tackle or even guard, but not a left tackle - like a slightly lesser quality Jake Long.

If Iupati is as good as they say, I'm on board.

Nightwulf - McShay's analysis can be a mixed bag. He spent most weeks last year saying Seattle would take BJ Raji fourth overall - something that was never likely considering his past and Tim Ruskell's character tests. It would've taken minimal research to find out Raji was unlikely, but he continued to predict it.

Essentially though, he/we can't be an expert on every team. I'm sure to many outsiders and even a lot of Seahawks fans OT and QB are the needs to be filled and that is what McShay has portrayed here. It's not an awful projection.

But for those of us invested in the Seahawks - the thought of Jimmy Clausen being this teams future fills me with Cleveland Browns-esque dread. Also - as things stand Mike Solari is still the OL coach and Mora et al are still the coaching staff. As we sit here today, Andre Davis is an awful scheme fit for the Seahawks. Until things change on the staff, I will be surprised if they draft him, particularly that early.

Anonymous said...

Rob,

Keeping the #9 and say #25. More than likely Morgan, Berry, Haden and Suh are gone. Should we go (S) Thomas with that pick, then get one of OT like Brown (where he may have more value. Then get RB (Dwyer) or CB (Robinson) in the second (assuming no trades).

E in F

ivotuk said...

I'm an insider and can't get the link to work. I've gone to the nfl draft page and still nothing. Did they pull the mock?

Rob Staton said...

Ivotuk - they pulled the mock when Locker said he wouldn't declare. Fair to them really, can't go flashing a mock around with Locker first overall after the news.

E in F - I'd be surprised if Berry goes before Seattle pick, but I do prefer Earl Thomas (need to see more tape, but right now I think Thomas could be the better all round safety). Whether or not they can justify a high pick like that on a r/s sophomore safety is another matter completely, especially with so many other huge needs. Robinson is worth considering in the second, I'm not a huge fan of Dwyer and think he might be more of a third/fourth round pick.

Anonymous said...

Rob - McShay has updated his mock to reflect Locker's decision. I'm not an insider either, so do you have any updates?

TJ

Rob Staton said...

He has the Seahawks taking Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma) in the top ten and then Clausen later on. I would update it on the blog, but frankly the first pick is a joke. Steve Muench, also of Scouts Inc, states on the same day that the new mock was published - that Williams had struggled strongly at left tackle this year but could be good at right tackle. Does that sound like a top ten pick?

Anonymous said...

Thanks. These mocks, especially from the national pundits, are so inaccurate anyway. So much will change between now and April. Every year there are guys considered first round prospects who drop into the fifth round, and guys that nobody has ever head of who climb into the first round.

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