Saturday, 6 March 2010

The latest on Brandon Marshall

By Kip Earlywine

I didn't want to push Kyle's great scouting report on Ben Tate down the page, but as Marshall obviously affects the draft in a huge way, I'm going to start giving some coverage here and there as new information arises. I'll have my own thoughts later, but here's the latest per Adam Schefter. To see it, click "read more."



Here's the article.

Despite rumors yesterday at Seahawks.net that Seattle was considering signing the tender outright, I wasn't really worried that would happen. Typically in these situations, you see a team meet with a player, determine mutual interest, then hammer out a contract with the player, all before beginning trade negotations with his team. As Marshall has a 1st round tender- that would cost Seattle the #6 pick to sign him, which establishes not his value but his maximum price. Expect this Marshall saga to drag out for days if not weeks. And considering that there are players on Seattle's roster that could appeal to Denver (Darryl Tapp) and vice-versa (Eddie Royal), don't be shocked if this whole thing snowballs into a blockbuster.

I'm glad to see confirmation today from Schefter that our FO is playing its cards correctly. Better to take the time and do this right than rush and make a mistake. I'll post my personal feelings on Marshall and what he's worth to the Seahawks later. I'll have more video in that post too.

17 comments:

Ben said...

For a giggle or two, you should check out the Marshall coverage on milehighreport.com . They think a 1st-round tender means that the negotiations start at a minimum of a 1st-rounder, not a maximum. They also think that, because the Seahawks are interested, that Marshall's rights will be traded for a minimum of the #6 or he won't be traded at all. This is a team that traded a 2010 #14 for a 2009 #37 (that turned into a nickel DB). I think the oxygen starvation is getting to them.

Michael said...

I would think that the 14th pick would be woth it for Marshall. He is bigger than Dez Bryant and a proven player instead of a potential player. It appears that the Hawks are taking a smart approach instead of giving up the 6th pick (thank god.) I am starting to get a little excited about this FA class.

Mike Kelly

Mongo said...

This guy has a history of being very immature and highly emotionally unstable. He beats up women and throws tantrums when he doesn't get his way. Many of these type find it hard to ever really change and eventually they go off the cliff. Although it is a tough decision, I hope the Hawks have sense enough to avoid this player despite the attraction due to his huge talent and obvious team need. Long term success in the NFL requires professionalism. Mr. Marshall is not that.

ChavaC said...

If they think they're getting full value for Brandon Marshall... they are kidding themselves. Or they just forgot their team is run by McGenius....
Anquan Boldin only got a 3rd, 4th and 5th. And he's not a thug.

Ben said...

Mike,
Signing Marshall to an offer sheet now would be like walking onto a used car lot and offering to pay 20% over sticker price. It's just not how NFL business is conducted.

Matthew Baldwin said...

Boldin trade: Arizona got a 3rd and 4th. Baltimore got Boldin and a 5th.

I seriously doubt we give up either of our first round picks for Marshall. If it does go forward, it will likely be our 2nd rounder and a 4th rounder or Branch.

The guy can be a headache, but man is he talented.

akki said...

If we give up a 2nd and 4th rounder, we'll pretty much be obligated to trade down steeply with one of the 1sts to recoup the lost picks. Most GMs seem protective about quantity of draft picks (note that Baltimore gave up only 1 net pick for Boldin) and that feeling should be ever stronger for a new regime that wants to leave its mark. Because of that, it seems plausible that we might give up a first rounder if there's a lower pick coming back the other way.

We can't expect Branch could replace the value of a 4th rounder in a trade. Even if he's of some use in McDaniels' offense, his market value is still almost nil at his current salary, given that nobody else wants him. I only see him involved as a throw-in if this does grow into a blockbuster.

Matthew Baldwin said...

Who knows how this will play out? I'd love to throw in Branch and keep the 4th rounder in that scenerio. I realize that might be just wishful thinking on my part, but he does have a history with McDaniels, they'll need another WR and the $5.4m salary could be easily resolved by kicking in some cash.

Rather than trading down to acquire more picks, I hope we trade Senneca to the Browns for their late 3rd (92nd) or their early 4th (102nd).

Browns have two 3rd round picks.

Nick said...

Don't forget who our coach is guys. One of the nicest men you will ever meet. Pete is very gifted at communication skills and he inspires the people around him. A guy like that you would be afraid to disappoint. It wouldn't be because he would get angry, but because you would want to do the best job for him you possibly could. Pete has worked with troubled youth as well. He knows how to get through to people. I think we should not worry about guys characters because Pete knows how to talk to them and he can mold them into great people. He has done it before and he can do it again.

Kip Earlywine said...

Its funny you mention that Ben. I stumbled across the Mile-high report two months ago when these rumors first started. Back then, they were adamant that it was a given that Marshall would not only receive a 1st + 3rd tender, but that 1 + 3 would be the starting point of negotiations. I have a SBN account and I was really tempted to make fun of them, but I managed to resist. I lived in the front range of Colorado for 6 years. Denver is a city extremely similar to Seattle, and the fans are passionate and better educated than most. But they are probably among the biggest homers in the NFL too, and that really comes across at MHR. Plus, they must be new to covering the sport because a RFA tag is never the starting point of a player negotiation. If the Seahawks wanted to- they could Poison pill Marshall right now and just give up the #6 (and they probably wouldn't even have to- no way Denver matches). So obviously, it represents his maximum value, not his starting value.

Kip Earlywine said...

I'll post my thoughts, as well as some more information about Marshall later tonight. He is absolutely a huge character risk, much bigger than I think 90% of us on the internet seem to realize. It wouldn't shock me if he goes the way of Plaxico next month. That is the reason why he was not given the maximum tender, I think. The Broncos wanted to "fish" Marshall for a pick but didn't want to scare suitors away too badly. If I had to guess, Marshall's real market value right now is probably the equivalent of a late 1st. He's really good, but really risky too and wouldn't be a fit for every team.

jason heyward said...

I think most teams over-value draft picks value. You have to pay large, guaranteed contracts to unproven players that may or may not reach their potential. Brandon Marshall has already proven his talent on the field, and he is certainly more valuable than any of the wr's you could find in the 1st round of the draft.

Anonymous said...

"he is certainly more valuable than any of the wr's you could find in the 1st round of the draft"

Not if he's in jail.

Rob Staton said...

Rest assured the Seahawks are not put off by Marshall's back ground. Everyone knows his character issues. Everyone know what he has done in the past. Everyone knows that he can be a walking soap opera. The Seahawks aren't meeting with him this weekend to find out what he's like. They already know.

The fact he's in Seattle now suggests the team are willing to back themselves to control him. If he gets on particularly well with Jeremy Bates and Pete Carroll feels he can work with a guy like that, then it makes perfect sense to find out what Marshall would want in terms of a contract and put a bit of pressure on Denver. An important thing to remember here - Pete Carroll is the anti-Josh McDaniels. Carroll is a players coach, very personable. McDaniels is very much an in-your-face, let them know who's boss type. Mike Shanahan likewise is a lot more prickly than Pete Carroll ever will be as a head coach. From my own personal experience in sport I know that some guys 'need' the right kind of coach to succeed. Some players love working for a sergeant major style coach who demands respect and discipline. Others warm to an arm round the shoulder, being given an ego massage. No one style is more succesful or 'better' than the other. Marshall for me needs to hear - a lot - that he's the man. Even then it's no guarantee that he'll stay away from trouble off the field, but if you can focus his mind on the game - success.

Seattle has the chance to get one of the truly elite receivers in the NFL in his prime - a rarity - for a good price because the guy has a bad reputation. Personally, if I was coaching, I'd say give me the talent and I'd back myself to make it work. Others prefer to coach guys they don't have to worry about. Any way the Seahawks can get Marshall without coughing up a first rounder would be a intriguing move. People won't call out a coach/GM for spending a 2nd rounder on a pro-bowler with triple 1000 seasons in his prime if it doesn't work out. It's a gamble, but at that price a calculated gamble with huge rewards.

And one thing to remember - Marshall fights for the ball better than most wide outs. He's a big target, he's comfortable on screens and fighting for jump balls. If you're introducing a rookie QB any time soon, Marshall is the kind of target you want him throwing to. Put Houshmandzadeh into the mix as your #2, and that becomes a superb tandem - and I believe Housh and Marshall are friends.

Kip Earlywine said...

I just had a thought. By NFL rules, you can't sign an offer sheet if you don't own the pick. So if Denver had given Marshall the maximum tender (1st + 3rd), that would have eliminated Seattle from the list of suitors to sign and would have made a Marshall trade to Seattle a little less likely. The Broncos knew perfectly well that Marshall would be very likely to end up in Seattle, with potentially few other suitors, so they may have gone for 1st round tender only to "grease the tracks" for his departure here.

Kip Earlywine said...

I'm starting on my Marshall post. It'll be up in a hour or two.

Ben said...

I think marshall's market value is less than a late 1st. The Broncos know that a team like Dallas or Philly can swoop in and sign him away with a poison pill contract. That would net the broncos a maximum of a 22nd or 24th. That is the starting point for negotiation and the price only drops from there.