Charley Casserly revealed his mock draft on the NFL Network today with a surprise at fourth overall. For those of you not aware of who Casserly's credentials, he's the former Houston Texans GM credited with having a big say in the team's decision to draft Mario Williams over Reggie Bush.Earlier this week we looked at the indecision amongst experts when it comes to predicting Seattle's choice in the first round. In a sample of six pundits, each had a different selection with the fourth pick. Add another name to the list - Chris 'Beanie' Wells (RB, Ohio State).
"They would have liked to have Aaron Curry to fill a need at outside linebacker but guess what, they want an impact player. That's what Jim Mora told me. He wants to get the running game going. It's Chris Wells in a shade over Michael Crabtree, the wide receiver from Texas Tech." - Charley Casserly, NFL.com
We've been debating a lot recently about the possible interest Seattle have in Knowshon Moreno. The same issues that make that move difficult stand true with Wells - it'd be a big investment (approx. $60m) for a prospect to play in a running back by committee system. However, call this one a hunch - both running backs could be getting more attention that most people think.
14 comments:
Beanie Wells would be the worst pick at #4. Yes, the worst. Sure, it would help us year 1 day 1, but at #4, with the ability to grab a player that can have a long lasting impact, a RB would be an awful waste of a pick for a good team, who has the opportunity to address serious future needs at LT, QB, or WR.
I'm a firm believer that very few RBs are worth a top 10 pick. Their shelf life is too short to justify a pick that high. Then add onto the fact that Wells is always hurt, runs with no heart (give me a smaller Knowshon who finishes), and has shown almost no ability in the passing game, and I'll show you an awful #4 pick.
Monroe, Smith, Stafford, Sanchez, and Crabtree can be productive players for 10+ years, where we can hope and pray to get 6 good ones out of the oft-injured wells. Yes, I did leave Curry and Orakpo off of this list because we NEED to get young talent on the offensive side of the ball. Hass, Walt, and Housh (will be 32) are well into their 30s and last time I checked, production goes down.
Wells at #4 would infuriate me as a fan. I would consider that total neglect for the future and would be viewed in my opinion, as one of the most irresponsible picks that Ruskell could possibly make.
Hi annonymous, I think you make some valid points. For starters, running backs do have shorter shelf lives. I would counter that slightly by saying that running backs don't have the same kind of a learning curve other positions have to. It could be 2-3 years before a quarter back, left tackle or receiver have adapted to perform at their peak. A running back can produce from day one and, injury permitting, sustain it for 8-9 years.
Of course, one issue with Wells is his durability. The position takes a pounding and the risk could be that whilst the team is hoping for that 'instant impact' for a 'win now' season - they could be left with a dissapointing Darren McFadden type rookie campaign.
But here's the thing. I just have a hunch that Seattle is really high if not necessarily on Wells, than on Knowshon Moreno. Casserly is thinking similar things here. Like him I believe the Seahawks will target an offensive 'weapon'. He may well have chosen Wells because he ran well recently and his stock took a little positive boost, whilst Moreno's stuck after the Georgia pro-day. However, we've all seen the photos now. Moreno is a Ruskell pick to a tee. Most people will balk at the idea, but Seattle finding a way to take Moreno in the first round is a possibility to me. Ruskell isn't afraid to pull the trigger on a prospect he likes, we've seen that. I have to believe Moreno is his kind of draft pick.
Hey Rob. What's your opinion on Andre Brown from NC State? I think he was hurt his senior year, but had a nice showing at the senior bowl. Is he the "mid-size" back to complement J. Jones smaller, quicker frame and TJ Duckett's short yardage specialities? Where have you seen his name getting drafted in mocks?
Hey Joseph. My knowledge of Brown is limited, I could only offer you a very basic review of his talents. I've posted a scouting report below, if you copy and paste it into your web browser you should find a decent amount of information on him:
http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2009abrown.php
Walterfootball.com has given him a 4th round grading and he's down as their 8th best running back in this class.
I will ask the experts for you as usual when I'm not best placed to pass comment myself. I'll report back with information.
With regard to mock drafts, it's funny you should mention Brown. Draft Tek (link posted below) run a simulator. Each individual enters their information and it calculates a mock draft. Their latest creation has Brown going to Seattle in the third round.
http://www.drafttek.com/round32009.asp
They also give Brown a late 2nd round grading.
NFL Draft Scout has Brown down as the 6th best RB in the 2009 class. They've published a report on him here:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/584399
Chad Reuter (also from NFL Draft Scout) has Brown going with the 6th pick in round three in his mock draft (to Cincinnati):
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfldraftscout-ChadReuter
Walter Cherepinsky has him going in the 4th round to Houston in his mock:
http://walterfootball.com/draft2009_4.php
Hope this helps.
one thing i will say is that i think Wells is a more elite prospect than Moreno, considering he ran a faster 40 and weighs 20 pounds more. I could certainly see why he'd be intriguing for a team looking to be more run focussed that doesn't have any star RB talent on the roster. He would instantly give a huge upgrade for an important position. However, I think he is just not good enough to be worth the #4 pick. I'd be all for trading down and getting him or Moreno thoug.
a motivated beanie wells could end up being the best player selected in this draft. he also fits a zone blocking scheme well. the big question is will he be motivated.
Rob, Andre Brown is a very solid back. I think both him and Rashaad Jennings are the two best second-tier backs (and both will have better pro careers than wells in my opinion). Brown had a great week at the Senior Bowl and Combine. He's a big back with speed (like Jennings) and loves football. Injuries have been his biggest issue. On the subject of us taking Wells, I think I'd personally find Tim Ruskell and punch him in the face if we took Wells with the 4th pick. He's a big physical back with injury problems (not the best combo). Given that our line isn't tremendous anymore, we need a back who can create on his own. Wells also has shown numerous signs of not caring that much about football (similar to Monroe). You can't take a guy 4th overall who doesn't like football more than anything else. God help us if we take Chris Wells.
PS - Starting to think less of NFL Network's mock drafts from their "experts." First Jamie Dukes has us taking Andre Smith, and now Casserly has us taking Wells.
Hey Chris,
I don't think Seattle will take Wells that early, it's very unlikely. But in all honesty I think Casserly's justifications for it show that he's actually considered Seattle's situation. He's spoken to Mora, he knows we have Locklear signed up and Willis re-signed. He's thinking out of the box a little bit with his choice, and although the pick itself is likely to be wrong his thought process is spot on for me.
I have time for Casserly. I think his opinions especially on the offensive tackles are a little bit different from the norm and he always backs up his thoughts.
But with the #4 pick? I just can't see it. Sure, if they trade down it makes some sense, but otherwise it's just too expensive a pick to spend on a RB, regardless of the lower learning curve. Also, Julius Jones did quite well for us when Holmgren finally gave him some PT when Mo went down. Why then would Ruskell reach for a RB?
Hi James,
It would certainly be a surprise if Ruskell took a RB that early. On paper it still looks unlikely because of the expense. However, Ruskell isn't afraid to go with a guy he likes. He won't be concerned with the bad grade from Mel Kiper or even the big contract if he values a prospect highly enough. If the Seahawks want to add an offensive weapon high in the draft, then maybe we'll be surprised on draft day. As you suggest, it may need a trade down which we know is unlikely and difficult to work out. If they do somehow trade down though, don't be surprised if you hear 'Wells' or 'Moreno' get their name called.
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