Wednesday, 17 December 2008

Updated mock draft 12/17

Today the SDB mock draft has been updated with some notable changes. It can be found at the top of the right hand side bar. Firstly, I have started to include Sam Bradford in my mock drafts. The indications appear to suggest that Bradford is seriously considering declaring whilst his stock is high. Unlike Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, who appear likely to stay with Florida and Texas respectively, this year's Heisman winner seems likely to try his luck in the pro's. Bradford will covet opinion from NFL sources before making a final decision.

Draft order has also been updated following a dramatic week 15 in the NFL. The St. Louis Rams are now picking second behind the win-less Detroit Lions. The Chiefs are up to third and the Bengals, following a victory over Jim Zorn's falling Redskins, are now selecting fourth overall. Seattle move to fifth following a 23-20 win at the Rams. San Diego's last gasp victory against Kansas City moves them out of the top ten for now, with a disappointing Green Bay franchise now selecting tenth overall.

Looking at the picks, I still believe Detroit will select a quarter back first overall. This could change depending on what happens in free agency. I also have Kansas City taking a new signal caller. I was at the New York Jets vs. Kansas City game earlier this year and personally, I like Tyler Thigpen a lot. But with Carl Peterson leaving as GM after nearly 20 years and the future of Herm Edwards in question, I'm beginning to wonder if a potential new regime will want their own guy to lead this young team.

This scenario would benefit Seattle, as one of Michael Oher or Michael Crabtree will fall to them at number five. With one day left to vote, the Seahawks Draft Blog poll shows that currently, 42% of people want Michael Crabtree to be top of Seattle's draft board.

4 comments:

Kyle Rota said...

Rob,

I do disagree with your #1. IMO, Detroit will take OT. Or, at least, a smart GM would take OT... They'll kill Stafford behind their current line. Likewise, I'm not sure StL takes a tackle. If they get a run-first coach, I can see it because Smith's ability to play guard becomes more important to the offense. But, looking through history, StL seems to take more passing guys for HC (Vermeil and Martz are well documents, Linehan oversaw some pass-happy offenses in Minnesota). That, to me, reflects an organizational trend.

You brought up a great point with the new KC regime. I admit, I have an easier time envisioning KC going QB now than I did a week ago.

Obviously I'd be thrilled with Crabtree. I think Stafford is my top guy, but Crabtree could well wind up #2.

I do wonder, however, if two 3-4 ILBs is overkill for SF. Willis and Maualuga... not enough tackles to go around to justify the pick. I'm not sure how SF picks in that situation, though.

btw - don't take this harshly... I find things wrong with EVERY Mock. Even my own. Especially my own.

Rob Staton said...

Hi Kyle, don't worry about disagreeing with the mock - I put it out there for people to discuss. Any feedback is always appreciated because I take everything I read on board in order to keep improving the mock as the weeks go on.

I think you make some very valid points. The thing that stops me giving Detroit a tackle is purely on the basis of talent. I'm not convinced Smith or Oher are worth taking first overall and being that guy who can fill the position for ten years from day one. On the other hand I like Stafford a lot, so even though it could benefit Detroit more to go OT, at the moment I still think they take Stafford. However, this could easily change based on whether they sign a guy such as Matt Cassel in free agency - a prospect more likely for example if they manage to poach Josh McDaniels to be head coach.

I agree with you about St. Louis and even though I have them taking Andre Smith and I read a lot about them wanting a tackle - I'm not 100% sold on them going in that direction. I wouldn't be completely suprised if Crabtree went as high as second overall whoever picks in that spot.

I was struggling a bit on the 49ers pick and went for Maualuga purely because they run a 3-4. Like you say it might be a bit much having both he and Willis as ILB so I might have to rethink that one.

I'm finding picks 6-10 difficult to judge because there isn't a clear cut top ten. If Seattle end up selecting outside of the top 5 it's going to be tough to predict who they take.

Aaron Weinberg said...

regardless, things are set to chance in the draft order. KC and Cinci play each other week 17, so assuming we lose out, we could move past 5. Also, the Rams play the niners and the Rams always have a good chance of beating them.

Rob Staton said...

Hey Aaron. I agree, I think we'll probably move around. Until the last two games though I'll keep the draft order as it would be if the season ended now. It's a very early top ten mock, personally I'm not that confident Crabtree reaches the 5th pick, but that's how it fell this week.