Tuesday, 20 April 2010

COUNTDOWN: The decision at #14

By Rob Staton
Before I start, I want to recommend scrolling down the page and checking out all the different content on the blog right now. A lot of very informative posts, POTD's and scouting reports are moving down quickly because it's draft week and things are busy. I'll also state again that if anyone wants to have their say or ask any questions feel free to do so in the usual comments section and one of us will be there to answer.

Yesterday I discussed the possible scenarios that will influence the Seahawks decision at #6. Today, I'm looking at the fourteenth overall pick. After Seattle make their first selection, seven teams pick before Seattle are again on the clock. I do expect some movement on the board before the Seahawks select again - with Jacksonville and Denver making a lot of noise about moving down. I believe the new front office in Seattle will also be doing their best to trade #14 as they go in search of more picks later on or even a 2011 first rounder. We've all seen the rumors that the Seahawks are shopping #14 for a first round pick next year and a second rounder this year. I discussed potential buyers last week. Keep an eye on the Carolina Panthers - they haven't been afraid to make big moves involving first round picks.

Ultimately though, it's nearly impossible to predict a trade even this close to the draft. These things tend to happen out of the blue. Nobody expected, least of all Tim Ruskell I imagine, the call from Denver offering to cough up a first rounder. The depth and quality of this draft may prove a sparking point for a trade (get the guy you have to have) or it could be a hindrance (value later on, why sell the farm?). All I will say is - I think the Seahawks will do everything they can to trade the #14 pick.

So what if no deal happens? They'd love Derrick Morgan to be sitting there at #14. A lack of 4-3 teams picking before the Seahawks makes it a possibility. However, he is such a good pass rusher in my opinion that some of the 3-4 teams will consider taking him. The Dolphins are a team to keep an eye on if he gets out of the top ten. I've been mocking Morgan to Cleveland because I think they too are very much a possibility. The chances of the Georgia Tech defensive end being there at #14 are not slim, but they aren't likely either.

If the Seahawks draft Eric Berry at#6, they have to consider taking a left tackle at this spot. It's hard to imagine who might be available here. I think Bryan Bulaga could drop on draft day and easily be there. As much as I think Anthony Davis could be a surprise pick in the top five, he could also be lingering around the mid-teens. Get him working, give him a good coach and he could be the steal of the draft.

But a candidate not often discussed outside of this blog is Charles Brown. Regulars know how highly I rate the USC lineman. He's a perfect scheme fit, he has a great punch, he's athletic. I think he's one of the most under rated prospects in this class. Give him Alex Gibbs as a mentor and watch him thrive. The Seahawks could potentially have an interesting choice to make. Davis - not an ideal scheme fit, work ethic issues but the best pass protector in this draft and limitless upside. Brown - a supreme scheme fit, hard worker with no character issues but only has potential to be good not great.

If the Seahawks don't take Berry at #6 they'll have a shot at Earl Thomas, although he seems to be enjoying the right kind of hype with a few days to go. Joe Haden is another possibility if he's still on the board. However, as I stated yesterday, don't expect to see C.J. Spiller or Jimmy Clausen taken here.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=13602

The rumors you've been referencing identify Clausen as a potential pick at #6 for Seattle, assuming Williams and Brown are gone.

Also wondering whether Rams' trade of Carriker makes any difference. Carriker seemed like enough of a nonfactor to where trading him may be a simple sense move and not signaling the acquisition of Suh, but you never know?

Anonymous said...

*Assuming Williams and BERRY are gone, sorry.

Rob Staton said...

They are not the rumors I've been referencing. I've contacted an original source of rumor personally and this is seperate. I was told Clausen was not an option.

Regarding Carriker, I just think the Rams want to move on. It hasn't worked out, so they've taken the best offer available. Still, whilst ever Albert Haynesworth is available, we never can tell.

Anonymous said...

Rob what do you think of Andrew Luck?

Rob Staton said...

Mixed views on Luck. I think he really benefitted from having a Heisman candidate at running back who basically carried the offense on his shoulders. He had one big game in a shoot outloss at Arizona. He didn't have anything to do against Washington and he made less than half of his throws against Washington State and Oregon State. He had a terrible 33% completion rate against California.

I'm interested to see how he does now Gerhart is gone. Does he stand up and take the team forward and become the centre piece? I am very, very sceptical. It seems all the hype on Luck arrived when one of his coaches basically said, "He's the next Brett Favre." I want to see how he does next year. From a technique point of view, he appears to have a decent release point. I like the way he drives the ball forward and he seems to have passable arm strength. He's agile, he can move around and you see him work through his progressions - he doesn't just lock on to one guy and force things.

He's had one year of starting so we'll see how he does in year two in 2010. He's a redshirt sophomore and in all honesty, he's no lock to declare next year especially if a rookie salary cap comes in. He's a name to watch though, alongside Locker, Mallett, Johnson, Pryor etc.

Kelly said...

Just took a look at the NFL schedule for the Seahawks. A little disappointed that we got snubbed from prime time again and teams like the Jet's have 3 Monday night games, but thats the Media for ya. As I take a look at the schedule I think with a rebuilding roster we could still win between 5-7 game. My thinking is 2 rams games, @Raiders, home vs.Panthers, home vs. Chiefs and if we have any fight in us towards the end of the seasons @ the bucs. But we don't travel well so I wouldn't count on the Bucs being winnable at this point.

Anonymous said...

If they do indeed plan to trade down at #14, which I would be OK with, I hope they get their LT early.

I would rather see Morgan at #14 than Thomas. A good pass rusher seems like more of a building block piece than an undersized, albiet talented safety. I also think they are looking to add their safety in the 2nd round. I have heard that they like GTs Morgan Burnett.

Rob Staton said...

Mel Kiper touted Burnett to Seattle. I fully expect the Seahawks to draft Eric Berry at #6 as long as KC doesn't take him. The Seahawks could still, theoretically, trade away the #14.. pick up an extra second this year and then package the two second rounders to get back into round one to draft a tackle like Charles Brown. It'd depend on a.) their willingness to scratch that LT itch this year and b.) their decision to make two potential high value picks one guy at a big area of need.

Anonymous said...

Rob,
Maybe it's the Jameson's I'm drinking,err, sipping, but, did you say, trade 14, where we should already be able to get Brown for a 2, then package both our 2's to trade back up to the first round and pick Brown?????

Anonymous said...

I think he just forgot to mention the addition of a 2011 first round pick.

Lenny James said...

I dont understand why people would take the 3rd best tackle in the draft over arguably the best player in the draft in Eric berry. If the Seahawks pass on Berry for a average tackle like Buluga, I wont watch one game this year. In my eyes the OT's in this draft are decent, but no clear cut elite player that stands alone as the best. All the top tackles are pretty close in ability. Anyone of the top tackles could emerge as a pro bowler but at this point it is up in the air who it will be. Michael Oher went in the 20's and was the best tackle out of his class in my opinion. With that said, I would take the BPA available in Eric Berry at 6(If he is there) and it also feels a need. FYI we ranked 30 in pass defense last year and the NFL is becoming a pass first league. I would look at trading down from 14, with the posssibility of landing C. Brown picks 18-23. If not I would not be opposed of taking Brown at 14. At 60 I would grab BPA D line. The first three picks should be S, OT, D line in whatever order is best.

6: Berry
14: Trade down or stay here. Either way Im taking Charles brown.
60: BPA D Line( L. Houston Texas)
Extra 2nd if we trade down: BPA WR
4th: BPA DE
4th :BPA Power Back
5th: BPA CB
5th: BPA OG

Seahawks if you need a assistant Gm, Holla at me

USAFANARC said...

Lenny,
I really hope that we don't take Berry at #6 and instead we take an OT for the precise reason you pointed out. It is a pass first league. If you can't keep your QB upright, you can't pass the ball. As a result of not having time to pass, the defense will stack the box and not allow you to run either. You can have the best D in the league, but it you can't score, you can't win. How many years are we going to hope that we can patch a line together? We went to the superbowl because of our O line. We need to start the build there.

Anonymous said...

You would make a great assistant GM imo. I bet Schnieders draft board just has the pick number and a position just like you. Heck maybe even his 1st rounder s are like #6 Saftey #14 Long Snapper...

USAFANARC said...

I understand the thought that we can still get Charles Brown at #14, but I don't think he is the caliber of player that the other top tackles are. If we do decide to target Brown at #14, I hope we go Spiller at #6 (as unlikely as that seems). I think that we could get a pretty good safety in the 3rd round and not spend massively for it.

Lenny James said...

Hey Usafanarc, Eric Berry will be a pro bowler, point blank. With the 6 pick the Seahawks select Brian Buluga from Iowa LOL. Okung and Williams will be gone by pick 6Im all mocked out. We will see thursday

Lenny James said...

Hey Usafanarc, Eric Berry will be a pro bowler, point blank. With the 6 pick the Seahawks select Brian Buluga from Iowa LOL. Okung and Williams will be gone by pick 6Im all mocked out. We will see thursday

Charles said...

Lenny, this is my only arguement with your statement about our pass defense, and how the league is a pass first league. Both of those statements were correct, but the problem with the pass defense wasnt our DBs as much as our lack of passrush. You want to know the fastest way of turning a 25-32 pass defense into a top 10 pass d? Improve the pass rush and defensive line, and hit the quarterback in under 6 seconds each time he snaps the ball. The best corners/safeties in the league can only cover a WR/TE for about 8-10 seconds. So while a great safety would surely help out, anything on the D-Line would be just as much of an improvement.

I personally hope were able to trade down with both of our picks to amass more picks for both this year and the future.

Anonymous said...

I hope we get Lamarr Houston, Houston + Mebane is a sick combo.

A-R-N-F said...

Charles brown may not be the top rated ot overall, but for a zbs he is #2 only to william's upside imo. A player's value isn't just based on general talent, but how well it can apply to your scheme. It's the same reason you probably won't see us take iupati, Terrance Cody or golden Tate.

And I'm not a fan of taking Berry because he plays a position that is generally drafted in or after the 2nd. You can find starting safeties outside the first in everydraft, but elite LTs and ends aren't going to be there in the second, and those positions are simply too valuable to settle for mediocrity.

Steve in Spain said...

If we miss out on Brown, how about Selvish Capers as a consolation prize?

A-R-N-F, #6 is bad value for a safety but it's fine value for a cover corner with ball skills. If the Hawks take Berry that high it will be because they view him as the latter as much as the former. (I'm slowly warming to the idea of Berry at #6 - I've gone from ice cold to tepid).

Anonymous said...

I've warmed up to the idea of Berry at #6. Just think - in our division are Fitzgerald and Crabtree...having a CB/S like Berry should provide us the skills to deal with them for the foreseeable future. I also really like Derrick Morgan @ #14, but I fear it could be a LoJack pt. 2. We should take the best LT available at #14 IMO.

Love the blog guys...I'm checking in every day! Addicted!

fountaindale said...

Rob... Clayton made the comment that this has become an offensive league and suggested that offense is more important that defense now. We've always been told that defense wins championships. If Clayton is correct that means we should drafting offense in the first round, right?

Lenny James said...

charles, you make a good point, however, within the first 3 picks we need a safety, d line, and o line help. This draft is deep with d line. Why not grab the best ball hawk in this draft and d line hep at 60. Could you imagine are d if we could land some one like L. Houston from Texas at 60 with Curry rushing of the edge in the hybrid 3-4 elephant role and ;r. Berry roaming the decondary. Wow.

6 Berry
14 Brown
60 Houston
4th power back

LennyJames said...

sorry for the typos

Rob Staton said...

Fountaindale - the Seahawks will spend one early pick at least on offense.