Wednesday, 14 April 2010
Trading for Marshawn Lynch: Pros and Cons
By Kip Earlywine
In a situation not completely unlike the Marshall situation in Denver, it appears Buffalo has grown tired of Marshawn Lynch's off-field antics, and is now shopping him with the asking price of a 2nd round pick. According to Charles Robinson, Seattle is one such team that is having internal discussions about whether or not to make a play for Lynch.
Lynch is nicknamed "Beast Mode" for his notoriously physical style of play.
Lynch turns 24 in a couple weeks, which is still very young. He should have 5-6 years left in the tank. By comparison, Montario Hardesty is only 10 months younger.
Lynch was a stud in college, a former 12th overall pick, and had productive seasons as a rookie and second year RB on some bad offenses (+82 DYAR (2008), +83 DYAR (2007)- translation: solidly above average).
Lynch is a very good receiver, with good totals in both college and the pros. So far, Lynch has totaled 93 receptions in 3 NFL seasons.
Lynch has stayed healthy.
He seems to fit the Gibbs profile pretty well. He has decent burst, solid vision, and has improved as an inside runner.
Fast for his size, a bit of a home-run hitter not unlike Frank Gore.
Former team-mate and best friend of Justin Forsett. Lynch and Forsett made an outstanding duo at Cal.
Trading for Lynch would likely involve a contract extension and a sense entitlement, which would go against Gibbs "no egos" philosophy in his zone running game.
Lynch has plenty of off the field and legal issues dating back to 2006, including a gun arrest.
Only 4.0 YPC so far as a pro. Lynch is a bit of a boom or bust type back.
Tough 2009 season: -64 DYAR. By comparison Julius Jones was a +44 last year.
Buffalo's sticker price is a 2nd round pick, and in an offseason where everyone other than Charlie Whitehurst is being sold for substantially less than the starting price, this probably means Buffalo will settle for an early 3rd or late 2nd. Seattle is poised at #60 to make an easy trade for Lynch if they so choose.
At first, I liked the idea, because Lynch was a great prospect out of college and had built a good reputation as a pro, and isn't much older than many of the RBs in this draft. However, I'm starting to cool on the idea only because Lynch's upside seems pretty low, especially in an offense where he might see 60% of the carries max, and I'd be lying if I said his 2009 stats weren't concerning, to say the least. Lynch was replaced as the starter late last year by Fred Jackson, a now 29 year old former UDFA, and now Buffalo is shopping him. It makes me wonder if last year's slump was more than a fluke, and it scares me enough to hesitate.
If Seattle ends up trading the #60 for Lynch, I don't think it will be a terrible trade, but it won't be a great one either. Seattle can draft a Hardesty, Dixon, Tate or McKnight in rounds 4-5, or possibly (if they get lucky) Jahvid Best at #60.
Posted by Kip Earlywine