Wednesday, 14 April 2010

Trading for Marshawn Lynch: Pros and Cons


By Kip Earlywine
In a situation not completely unlike the Marshall situation in Denver, it appears Buffalo has grown tired of Marshawn Lynch's off-field antics, and is now shopping him with the asking price of a 2nd round pick. According to Charles Robinson, Seattle is one such team that is having internal discussions about whether or not to make a play for Lynch.

Lynch is nicknamed "Beast Mode" for his notoriously physical style of play.



Pros:


Lynch turns 24 in a couple weeks, which is still very young. He should have 5-6 years left in the tank. By comparison, Montario Hardesty is only 10 months younger.

Lynch was a stud in college, a former 12th overall pick, and had productive seasons as a rookie and second year RB on some bad offenses (+82 DYAR (2008), +83 DYAR (2007)- translation: solidly above average).

Lynch is a very good receiver, with good totals in both college and the pros. So far, Lynch has totaled 93 receptions in 3 NFL seasons.

Lynch has stayed healthy.

He seems to fit the Gibbs profile pretty well. He has decent burst, solid vision, and has improved as an inside runner.

Fast for his size, a bit of a home-run hitter not unlike Frank Gore.

Former team-mate and best friend of Justin Forsett. Lynch and Forsett made an outstanding duo at Cal.

Cons:

Trading for Lynch would likely involve a contract extension and a sense entitlement, which would go against Gibbs "no egos" philosophy in his zone running game.

Lynch has plenty of off the field and legal issues dating back to 2006, including a gun arrest.

Only 4.0 YPC so far as a pro. Lynch is a bit of a boom or bust type back.

Tough 2009 season: -64 DYAR. By comparison Julius Jones was a +44 last year.

The Verdict
:

Buffalo's sticker price is a 2nd round pick, and in an offseason where everyone other than Charlie Whitehurst is being sold for substantially less than the starting price, this probably means Buffalo will settle for an early 3rd or late 2nd. Seattle is poised at #60 to make an easy trade for Lynch if they so choose.

At first, I liked the idea, because Lynch was a great prospect out of college and had built a good reputation as a pro, and isn't much older than many of the RBs in this draft. However, I'm starting to cool on the idea only because Lynch's upside seems pretty low, especially in an offense where he might see 60% of the carries max, and I'd be lying if I said his 2009 stats weren't concerning, to say the least. Lynch was replaced as the starter late last year by Fred Jackson, a now 29 year old former UDFA, and now Buffalo is shopping him. It makes me wonder if last year's slump was more than a fluke, and it scares me enough to hesitate.

If Seattle ends up trading the #60 for Lynch, I don't think it will be a terrible trade, but it won't be a great one either. Seattle can draft a Hardesty, Dixon, Tate or McKnight in rounds 4-5, or possibly (if they get lucky) Jahvid Best at #60.

23 comments:

Anonymous said...

Give me a break! He's a thug! He signed a six-year, $18.935 million contract. The deal contains $10.285 million guaranteed, including a $3 million signing bonus. 2009: $630,000, 2010: $885,000, 2011: $1.14 million, 2012: $1.14 million (Voidable Year), 2013: Free Agent The Dude got paid and the true "self" is showing
We can't find anyone better to represent? My God guy's! My kids want to wear these peoples jerseys! Find me a John Carelson that can run with the ball already!

Anonymous said...

looks like a crack addict, rapper. No thanks...pass

Matthew Baldwin said...

No thanks.

It might give some insight on the type of RB they're looking at (sans the gold grill).

How does Lynch compare to some of the other RBs on the draft board other than weight?

Lynch: 215lb
Tate: 218lb

jah said...

I like Marshawn, been a fan since his Cal days, but the running back that I want in a Seahawk lime green jersey next year is Ben Tate out of Auburn, that is if he makes it to the 60th pick. 5-11, 220 4.4 forty and a physical smash-mouthed running style? yes, please. Tate and Forsett would be a nice tailback tandem.

Anonymous said...

Our line is supposedly going to be set up for the zone blocking scheme. If I understand this right, our linemen will be relatively small and fast and therefore not man to man maulers, so our backs will need to be able to see the hole or gap, make one cut, and go up field lickity-split. How does that help some relatively slower bruiser back get short yardage? I don't think we want two different style backs, just a couple backs that do basically the same thing but bring fresher legs because the rotation process. Am I wrong?

Anonymous said...

Abso-freakin'-lutely NOT! No way I want to give up draft picks for a used running back - one with considerable baggage at that. If we was a free agent, he might be worth a try. I don't see him as being a part of the foundation for this team's future.

With Schneider's desire to build through the draft, I really doubt that he is being considered by the Hawks. Probably a fabricated story by a reporter looking for a scoop.

Kip Earlywine said...

Every time I see Marshawn Lynch's face I always think of Lil' Wayne.

Kip Earlywine said...

http://www.kalamu.com/bol/wp-content/content/images/lil%20wayne%2021.jpg

Jon said...

"Every time I see Marshawn Lynch's face I always think of Lil' Wayne."

I always think of the Predator:

http://people.ee.duke.edu/~drsmith/cloaking/predator.jpg

I'm not opposed to the move in general. I think Rob brought up something interesting in that he's friends with Forsett. Justin Forsett is a choir boy, like literally he sings church music and quotes the bible all the time. Maybe that and being back on the left coast might chill him out a little, who knows.

I don't think he;s worth a 2nd round pick and I don't see any team making that deal. The thing no one has mentioned is that is Lynch is in, Julius Jones is out so we might as well throw him in the trade. I think Julius Jones and a 4th rounder is fair for Marshawn Lynch.

Curt said...

How about just a CON. Let's get one if we need it in the draft.
Sure hope they don't give any more picks away.

TJwhoseseahawk said...

I can't help but see that the NFL analysts are predicting one of the following players for us:

Spiller (Popular pick among NFL)
Suh (NO WAY HE'LL BE THERE at 6)
Trent WIlliams(Smart pick)
Eric Berry (Risk for reward pick)

I personally would like to see us take a chance on Berry but I have a feeling when we get on the clock that if Trent Williams is there, he will be our pick.

I remember last year, it was split screen between Curry/Crabtree and like always the Seahawks played it safe and chose the Wake Forest LB. I see Williams/Berry being the split screen this year and because Williams is the safer pick and because the Seahawks are in a massive rebuilding mode I don't know if Berry is a player you build your defense around.

I'm still hoping for:

6: Berry

14: Trade down in the 20's, for say a 2nd round pick and get Charles Brown...but we shall see.

Jon said...

Sorry Kip I missed your by line, I referenced Rob before. Props!

TJwhoseseahawk,

Curry was the hands down consensus "best player in the draft", it was a fluke he made it to #4 so it was more of a no-brainer than a safe pick.

Ironically we're picking right after KC again so if they go unconventional it may open the same door again where there's value we didn't see coming, sitting there for us.

Anonymous said...

People say you don't build your team around a safety, but I am sure teams that have/had guys like Ed Reed, Troy P., and the great Kenny Easley would disagree. Not sure if Berry is in that class, but he was hyped before all this after-season judging started.

akki said...

Kip,
Where do you get the idea that Lynch or any lead back might get 60% of the carries max? I see a couple of philosophies in the staff here - the USC system through Chow/Sarkisian where you had the "thunder and lightning" combos, and the Shanahan/Gibbs system where the tendency was to feed 80+% of the carries to Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, or whoever was healthy. When Bates was with Denver and USC, he tended to go along with what was already successfully used, rather than try to implement a new system. Do we know for sure what Bates intends to do with the Seahawks now that he gets to build from the ground up? I haven't heard anything and am curious if you have.

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Conor said...

Jon - I was thinking the same about KC and their relative draft unpredictability. Could lead to some fraught decision making if Berry AND Williams are still there at #6.

I'd rather go for Best (if he was still on the board at #60) than Lynch, even with Best's concussion history.

Bill said...

I was surprised by a few things in this post. Jon got one of them talking about Lynch and Forsett being "best friends" and Forsett being a choir boy. Could it possibly be that Lynch doesn't want to play in Buffalo? Could you blame him? They are going on their 3rd coach in 12 months and they have not had a QB for years. I'm not saying that we're any better than Buffalo but I think there is way more upside here.

Also the fact that he's only 24 really surprised me. He definitely has some more in him.

As for his look, anyone remember this? http://espn.go.com/i/magazine/new/metro_edgerrin_james.jpg

Edge baby! Makin good from the hood.

Kip Earlywine said...

Akki- I'm going under the assumption that the team is using a RB by committee approach like the one used at USC.

As far as Davis/Gary/Anderson, its true that Davis was a workhorse back, but Anderson and Gary never saw 300 carries and only rarely came close. Some seasons they'd be in the 200s and some they would have less than 100 despite suiting up for most of the games.

akki said...

Thanks Kip. Fair assumption and my initial impression too, though I don't know if we can be sure about it. I have a hard time figuring what the offense will really look like given the guys on the team. To some degree, USC might have had a committee approach because they had such an embarrassment of riches.

Kip Earlywine said...

Its definitely an assumption, but it seems to be an assumption the rest of the Hawks blogosphere is running with too.

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