This will be my penultimate mock draft, barring any headline grabbing news over the next few days. My next update will be on April 21st - the day before the 75th NFL Draft. In this latest projection, I continue to contemplate recent speculation that Seattle will choose between Trent Williams and Eric Berry with the 6th overall pick.
Round One
#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
As much of a lock today as Matt Stafford was this time last year to go first overall.
#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
I never expected the Lions to take anything other than Suh or McCoy here. Suh appears to have the edge.
#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
The Buccs will settle for McCoy if Suh's off the board. This fills a huge need in Tampa Bay.
#4 Washington: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
I still think this pick could be Anthony Davis. I've long felt that Okung was over rated and wouldn't go as high as some believe. Williams' stock continues to rise and there's every chance he could go this early.
#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
Nobody thought Tyson Jackson would go third overall this time last year. Kansas City will do what it takes to build a great 3-4 defense. Their moves to improve the offensive line this off season suggests they won't be taking a lineman.
#6 Seattle: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The Seahawks' decision here will be made easier if either Berry or Williams are off the board at this point. Do I like the pick? Not really. It does appear though that Seattle's front office is enamoured by Berry, even if it's a bit of a luxury. This won't be a quickfire rebuild, though.
#7 Cleveland: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Browns traded sack leader Kamerion Wimbley. Morgan could be BPA and some scouts think he can work in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. C.J. Spiller or Joe Haden could be in contention here too.
#8 Oakland: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
Campbell isn't worthy of this pick, but we know how Al Davis drafts.
#9 Buffalo: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
When I watched Okung, I didn't see a dominant force. Kyle Rota's report is a must read. However, I have to appreciate that others rank him higher and this could keep him in the top ten.
#10 Jacksonville: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
If the Jaguars stay put, I think they'll add to their secondary. However, with no second round pick I anticipate big movement from this team on April 22nd.
#11 Denver: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
Kindle fits the system Denver use and there's a chance he goes this early. The Broncos are making big moves on defense.
#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
The Dolphins re-signed Jason Ferguson, but he's suspended for the first half of the season. He's also getting up in years, so adding Williams to play the valuable nose tackle position makes sense.
#13 San Francisco: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
The Niners are not sold on their QB situation - how else do you describe the current battle between Alex Smith and David Carr? They're aware that it could hold back what is otherwise a very solid roster. They might see Clausen as the answer.
#14 Seattle: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
There's been talk Seattle will try to trade this pick for a 2011 first rounder. If they stay put and take Berry at #6, expect an offensive lineman to be a big target here.
#15 New York Giants: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
The Giants have a solid roster and would be a nice landing spot for a prospect like Spiller who would compliment their rushing attack with explosion.
#16 Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
Pierre-Paul is raw but he has unlimited upside and teams will look at him as someone they can coach into greatness. His lack of experience might keep him out of the top ten, but he owns top ten talent.
#17 San Francisco: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
It wouldn't surprise me if Bulaga lasted this long. The Niners want a right tackle though and Bulaga fits the bill.
#18 Pittsburgh: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Steelers are touted to draft offensive lineman every year. Bryan Bulaga and Maurkice Pouncey will be tempting. However, they also need a cornerback.
#19 Atlanta: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Receiver isn't a need for Atlanta, but the Falcons will consider drafting another big target for Matt Ryan.
#20 Houston: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
The run on cornerbacks continues. The Texans will be cautious of filling the hole left by Dunta Robinson's departure.
#21 Cincinnati: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Bengals do have needs on the defensive line and they like USC prospects. Griffen could go higher than this.
#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.
#23 Green Bay: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
I'm a big fan of Brown's and believe he could go earlier than this. Earl Thomas or a cornerback could be an alternative option here.
#24 Philadelphia: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
The Eagles need a free safety and could use Thomas creatively in the secondary.
#25 Baltimore: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
The Ravens would find some value in the under rated McCourty, who put on a show at the combine.
#26 Arizona: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
The Cardinals draft for value and could find a potential steal here with Dunlap. Arizona took a chance on Calais Campbell that paid off. Dunlap could be even better.
#27 Dallas: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
The Cowboys moved on Ken Hamlin creating a space at the strong safety position. Mays could be an option.
#28 San Diego: Brandon Graham (OLB, Michigan)
Graham is a great pass rusher, but his lack of size could put off teams - as we saw with Everette Brown last year.
#29 New York Jets: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Having traded for Santionio Holmes, the offense appears pretty set. The Jets might return to their defense with corner a strong possibility.
#30 Minnesota: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Would Bryant fall this far? Would Minnesota take him if he did? I'm not 100% on either. However, the Vikings have a good enough all round roster and can easily justify a selection like this. It's just BPA and would be tremendous value for a star studded team.
#31 Indianapolis: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
The Colts have the time and quality to prepare Pouncey as the heir apparent to Jeff Saturday. I see a lot of mocks with Pouncey very high - that could happen, but it's hard to place him in a mock. It'll be a situation where one team just likes the guy so much, but nobody can predict that.
#32 New Orleans: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I was never blown away watching tape of Weatherspoon from 2009. He should warrant consideration here though and offers an instant impact as a rookie.
Round Two
#33 St. Louis: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Getting Sam Bradford a safety net - especially one he's worked with in college - makes sense. Injuries are the only reason Gresham is still available here.
#34 Detroit: Brandon Ghee (CB, Wake Forest)
The Lions made a very smart pick in Louis Delmas last year. This would be another wise addition to the secondary.
#35 Tampa Bay: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
The Buccs need to add some weapons for Josh Freeman.
#36 Kansas City: Golden Tate (WR, Notre Dame)
Charlie Weis might make a plea to draft his former Notre Dame playmaker.
#37 Philadelphia: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
The Eagles' pick up this selection from Washington and could turn it into a long term answer on the interior line.
#38 Cleveland: Eric Decker (WR, Minnesota)
Browns GM Tom Heckert personally watched Decker on a number of occasions last year. The Browns need to add another receiver and Decker has the kind of smarts, discipline and route running qualities Mike Holmgren's offense craves.
#39 Oakland: Chris Cook (CB, Virginia)
Al Davis loves to draft defensive backs and he loves to draft guys who run fast forty times. A perfect match.
#40 San Diego: Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)
Mathews divides opinion but there's no doubt the Chargers want a guy who can lead their rushing attack.
#41 Buffalo: Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
Chan Gailey experimented with the spread using Tyler Thigpen in Kansas City. If Jacksonville don't find a way to take him, Buffalo appears to be an alternative. Either way, whoever wants him might have to trade back into round one. I think Tebow will go earlier than this.
#42 Tampa Bay: Amari Spievey (CB, Iowa)
The Buccs have a lot of needs but with cornerbacks dropping off the board they might take a punt on Spievey.
#43 Miami: Ricky Sapp (OLB, Clemson)
Bill Parcells likes to draft linebackers and Sapp would be a steal here.
#44 New England: Anthony McCoy (TE, USC)
The Pats have an opening at tight end. McCoy is under rated.
#45 Denver: Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
LaFell has disappointed at the combine and during the 2009 season, but he has the potential to have a Dwayne Bowe type rookie season.
#46 New York Giants: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
The Giants could find excellent value with Price here. He only falls because he gets knicked up in games - but in a rotation he should be good.
#47 Carolina: Mardy Gilyard (WR, Cincinnati)
Gilyard is a mystery - I think he could go here or fall well into the 3rd.
#48 San Francisco: Nate Allen (S, USF)
The Niners add to their secondary having drafted a quarterback and an offensive tackle in round one.
#49 New England: Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU)
The Patriots might add to their pass rush. Hughes could go higher than this.
#50 Kansas City: Cam Thomas (DT, North Carolna)
The Chiefs complete their 3-4 defense with a valuable nose tackle addition.
#51 Houston: Ben Tate (RB, Auburn)
The Texans want a running back and Tate is under rated. They opt for size instead of the home run hitting quality of Jahvid Best - who has durability concerns.
#52 Pittsburgh: Roger Saffold (OT, Indiana)
The Steelers might spend a pick on someone like Saffold, who is capable of lining up at tackle or guard. He could go a lot earlier than this.
#53 New England: Terrance Cody (DT, Alabama)
I'm cautious of placing Cody too high in my mocks because I'm not sure he can have a highly active role for any team. However, he'd do well here giving Vince Wilfork the odd snap off.
#54 Cincinnati: Lamarr Houston (DT, Texas)
Would the Bengals invest two early picks on their defensive line? Houston offers solid value and would really help the Bengals up front.
#55 Philadelphia: Daryl Washington (OLB, TCU)
A rising name who would fill a need for Philly.
#56 Green Bay: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (CB, Indiana)
Cornerbacks won't last long in this draft. Green Bay has a need at the position, but they also need a return specialist. Owusu-Ansah can play a dual role.
#57 Baltimore: Aaron Hernandez (TE, Florida)
The Gators tight end is a pass catching threat for Joe Flacco.
#58 Arizona: Torell Troup (DT, UCF)
The Cardinals might invest a pick at the all important nose tackle position.
#59 Dallas: Damian Williams (WR, USC)
The Cowboys might entertain drafting a wide out in the first two rounds. Williams is a polished route runner who can contribute straight away.
#60 Seattle: Jahvid Best (RB, California)
Best's concussion issues could lead to a fall. The Seahawks will struggle to get Brandon Marshall without giving up much more than this, so finding some offense in round two is crucial.
#61 New York Jets: Linval Joseph (DT, East Carolina)
One to watch - Joseph is a potential nose tackle who ran a 5.09 and benched 39 reps - whilst weighing 328lbs. Strong and fast guys who play this position go early so it wouldn't surprise me if Joseph went earlier.
#62 Minnesota: Tyson Alualu (DT, California)
Minnesota might look to add to their defensive line with the talented Alualu, who fits the 4-3 scheme.
#63 Indianapolis: Geno Atkins (DT, Georgia)
The Colts like smaller, faster defensive lineman. Atkins ran well at the combine and weighed in under 300lbs - he could go a lot earlier than this.
#64 New Orleans: Morgan Burnett (S, Georgia Tech)
Another prospect that has been touted to go in the mid-second and that could happen.
26 comments:
Hey Rob,
First of all, Love the site!
This is my first post and possibly the first post from a Seahawks fan in Iceland:)
I was wondering about the Oakland pick, what do think about the possibility of Taylor Mays going to the Raiders at #8?
Mays had one of the best 40 time at the combine, an we all know that Al Davis loves speed and he his know for reaching big time to get his guy. Would not be the first time Al Davis does something no one understands.
Keep up the good work!
I will be truly disapointed with this draft if Seattle goes the way you think they will.
Taking Berry when Clausen and Morgan are on the board is my first issue. Secondly, taking Davis when Spiller or Brown are still there. Lastly, Best with his concussions when they could target Deji Karim later, would be the third travesty.
The Hawks could do just about anything else IMO, then taking a luxury pick, a lazy bum with an attitude(screw his"upside"), and a guy who's one good hit away from re-exploring his collage major in a position where we should be expecting him to be taking good hits every time he's on the feild.
Yep, I would hate that draft!
PS- You DO have the best site on the net... keep up the great work
Is this mock supposed to take the Kerney retirement into account? I would be pretty upset if if we passed on Morgan for a safety considering out biggest threat on at end is Jackson.
Davis would be one of those picks that I would never really like in a mock, but would somewhat excited if it actually happened. He obviously has more than his share of concerns, but if he gets the nod of approval from Gibbs it would make me think they can get him pretty close to his ceiling.
Also, it would be pretty scary if the niners could pull off something like this draft. Massive value at all three picks in needs.
Great Mock, Rob. I really appreciate your site too. I have to say that I agree with the other comments so far. I just can't see them passing on Morgan for a safety. I don't think Mogan will make it to 14 like some other mocks have. I'm actually higher on Brandon Graham than you are (a couple of inches don't bother me), but if he's truly a late first prospect, then there's all the more reason to get Morgan at six. You can take other positions later. DE's are hard to find.
I would love if we traded down with both picks. But if not:
6 Berry (S)
14 Morgan (DE)
60 Ducasse (OT)
4th Price (WR)
4th Johnson (OG)
5th Bell (RB)
5th Thomas (CB)
E in F
Rob,
No way Seattle takes Anthony Davis over Charles Brown at #14. The guy is too high of a risk and can neither run block nor be effective at the second level. Add to that his weight and maturity issues and he drops to the late first but certainly does not get picked over Charles Brown.
Gibbs and Carroll know very well how capable and valuable Charles Brown is. This is not so much a "USC" pick as it is a value pick. I just posted this link in another post but it is worth repeating.
From one of the few good articles posted by Wes Bunting at NFP:
"Preview
Charles BrownCharles Brown exhibits good body control and range off the edge in pass protection.
In a matchup that features two of the draft’s top offensive tackle prospects, we take a look at the seasoned senior technician in Charles Brown vs. the immature, yet vastly talented, Anthony Davis. Therefore, the key to evaluating the two prospects is answering the question: Three years from now, who is the better NFL offensive tackle? Here’s our take on the matter as we break down both prospects and shed some light on the guy we would take come draft day.
Breakdown
One of the biggest questions I have in this year’s draft is how can Oklahoma State offensive tackle Russell Okung be considered a potential top-five pick, while Southern Cal offensive tackle Charles Brown is considered a second-round prospect to many? The way I see it, there isn’t a whole lot separating the two in terms of overall talent and upside at the next level, and I think both could end up having very similar NFL careers.
Therefore, the idea that Brown isn’t consistently regarded as a top-five offensive tackle prospect in this year’s draft just blows my mind."
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Offensive-tackle-fight-night.html
Yeah, especially with Pete Carrol's connection with C.Brown I can't see why they would go for Davis and I get that he has the highest ceiling for offensive linemen but you have to admit he also has the lowest floor out all the 1st round tackles and I am sure that fact is not lost in the FO. I get that you are not mocking what YOU would do, rather what our FO would but I disagree with you on this one.
Great mock Rob and I really look forward to the final mock. I think your mocking has steadily improved such that you're now one of the best out there. I like the approach you've taken this year, examining different possibilities and directions with each new mock. In the end, I have less idea today of what the Seahawks are doing than I did a few months ago, curiously.
As for the 49ers, I'm stumped about their plan at QB. With Scott McLoughlin out the door, Alex Smith's biggest backer is gone and the commitment to Smith is weaker than ever. But with the pick-up of Carr, it looks like the 49ers are committing to a specific offense: Jimmy Raye's shotgun offense with heavy receiver sets, including the TE aligned out wide. It seems to me that if the Bills are passing on Clausen for schematic reasons, then the 49ers might well do so too. They can get a QB that better meets the Jimmy Raye profile in the late rounds.
The Rams need a RB behind Steven Jackson. They have nobody on their roster to lighten his load. Bradford will be starting week 1, so they'll be running a lot. I expect them to try to trade down a few spots (there will be plenty of suitors I think), and then nab the best HB available, either Tate or Mathews. I see TE as a need they can fill in the 3rd or 4th round.
Palmar - great to hear from you and welcome aboard! Mays is very much an option at #8 because Al Davis loves big, fast prospects and he loves defensive backs. For me, you look at Bruce Campbell, Taylor Mays and Jason Pierre-Paul as strong possibilities to land in Cleveland.
ARNF - If Morgan was still there at #14 and they keep the pick - he could be the choice. However, if we belive speculation - it's Berry or Williams at #6.
Ivotuk - I spoke to a national draft analysis not so long ago and he told me Davis was on Seattle's radar. I love Charles Brown, but do the Seahawks? I could see them taking Davis before Brown - Alex Gibbs likes to get hold of his offensive lineman and make them great. I think with good coaching, Davis can be great. I've been singing Charles Brown's praises on this blog for months and would love to see him in Seattle. However, I'm not convinced he'll be a Seahawk over a guy like Davis - even if he played for USC. We have no idea what Carroll's thoughts on Brown are.
Steve - all great points there. Clausen is a difficult prospect to place... for that reason alone I just wonder if he'll suffer a fall on April 22nd. I don't see him in Buffalo or Jacksonville. When he gets past SF, who takes him? It wouldn't surprise me if something pretty shocking happened like - team trades up into late first to get Tebow - ahead of Clausen. That would be a mind blowing story. But when he gets past a certain level, it's hard to see when his fall ends. Personally, if I needed a QB in that mid first I'd be all over Clausen.
Well, Marshall just went to the Phins' so I guess we still have our 1st and 2nd rounders come draft day.
I always, or lately anyway, thought that Marshall on a rebuilding team could prove to be a nightmare.
Solid mock Rob. Great job as usuall. Not exactly what I am hoping for but then again reality and my wishes doesn't always match.
Bummer on the Marshall trade. So... we need playmakers.... is Des Bryant back on the Hawks Board?
Spiller becomes more of a serious option again IMO.... There is so much talent avalable it would be a shame if Seattle panics and does somthing silly. It would seem to me that letting Gibbs make a line with later picks,( his claim to fame by the way) and picking talented playmakers with 6, 14, 60 is the way to start this rebuild. Could be another long year!
6-Clausen
14- Des Bryant
60-Deji Karim
Go Hawks!
wkh
Rumor has it Bryant is picked off at least ten boards due to character and that Seattle is one of them.
BTW Gibbs has picked two OL in the first round hasn't he?
I think the D is going to have to carry this team in 2010.
marshall to phins...dez bryant should be on yheir board now
I guess I'm in the minority in saying that I like the selections for the Seahawks in this mock.
Pete Carrol could use Berry the way he played Troy Polamalu when Polamalu was at USC (when USC played Washington, Polamalu played CB lining up against WR Reggie Williams).
I'm cool with taking Berry at #6 only if we land Anthony Davis or Charles Brown at #14. I'm really high on Anthony Davis and I'm not overly concerned that 20 year old Anthony Davis is a bit immaure. While Javhid Best has been injury prone, he is worth the the risk late in the 2nd round.
After years of ultra conservative drafting by Tim Ruskell, I'm totally open to the idea of taking a few risks in this draft.
Spiller or Bryant won't end up in Seattle.
The Seahawks could target Jahvid Best at #60 or even more up if needs be to get him - they have picks in round four they could deal. Don't rule out a trade away from #14 that involves Seattle inheriting another second and a 2011 first rounder. But rule out Spiller and Bryant.
I'll edit the mock later to accomodate the Marshall deal. I really see Denver moving around on draft day.
Rob, If the Seahawks trade #14 for a 2nd round pick and a 1st round pick in 2011 (before they make their pick at #6), then do you still think they would still take Berry at #6?
If the Seahawks make that trade I think they would force themselves to select a OT at #6. I would hate for the Seahawks to draft Berry then wait until the 2nd round to get a LT.
I find it interesting that Gibbs had Willis lining up at LT yesterday in minicamp. They had a line of Willis, Gibson, Spencer, Unger, Locklear.
I think Spencer, Unger and Locklear are going to remain in those spots. What they do for the left side will happen in the draft. I see a 1st rounder and a 4/5th being spent on the LG.
I really can see this current mock draft happening. The other scenario I could see is Williams at #6, then trade down from #14 to the 20's and pick up a 2nd or 3rd, then taking Mays with the late first and adding a WR with the added 2nd or 3rd.
1st Hill - I think any trade would happen after #6. Their decision will be aided if guys like Trent Williams go before #6. They need a tackle. I think they could make a trade and potentially still get Charles Brown later - so no need to panic. They'll have veterans lined up to come in too - Seattle will not start 2010 with a practise squad guy at LG and Ray Willis on the left. It'll be interesting to see what happens. They might not find a taker at #14.
Savage - keep an eye on Justin Smiley. Still very much a trade option for Seattle at guard.
Rob,
You are saying the Hawks would want to pick up Justin "Chronic Bad Shoulder " Smiley? Didn't Miami just pick up Richie "Personal Foul" Incognito to take his place? Why would we want either of those two guys?
Annonymous - the Seahawks have shown some interest in Smiley and he would fit the ZBS. Seattle will need to find a left guard.
Whats the deal with this Trent Williams talk? Right after the season he was talked of a right tackle prospect and played multiple positions on the Oklahoma line and was not an elite left tackle. I just don't see how he is a candidate at #6.
Personally, I think Eric Berry's interest is a smoke-screen in order to trade back to acquire addition picks. GM's don't usually show their hand before the draft unless they have an alternate motive. I'm also predicting that our 14th pick is gonna be in high demand come draft day if Joe Haden and Earl Thomas is still available.
After the trades:
6th pick
1st
2nd
2nd
14th pick
1st
2nd
If Berry is on the board at #6 we new to pick him up. We have nothing at safety and our whole secondary stinks.
I hear a lot of talk about grabbing a tackle at 6 but I think we can get someone just as good with #14 or have Bates coach someone up from a later pick.
There is no way we can pass up on Berry if he is available at #6.
Make the right decision Carroll...
Love the 2nd mock draft and hope you're right about Jahvid Best dropping to 60th. One that I had different on my mock and the only one I take issue with is Bradford to the Rams.
What St. Louis needs is another Kurt Warner. The former grocery store clerk was the best QB in franchise history and he came out of nowhere. I see St. Louis attempting to recreate that success by drafting Tracy Orbison, a grocery clerk from the same Iowa grocery Kurt Warner worked at.
I also have Al Davis moving up to draft Usain Bolt. It's not as crazy as last year's first round pick.
Hey Rob. With our first three picks we should target a SS,OL, and a DT in whatever order suits us best.
I would not focus on aquiring a DE until later in the draft. There will still be good value for a DE in this deepp D Line class. What do you guys think about Aaron Curry playing on the line as a LB/ Speed rusher. Technically it would be a 3-4 defense with Curry playing on the line in some situations. I would not stress WR situation as much with the additions of the M and R Williams.
Next I would work out a deal to aquire Lynch without using my 2nd round pick. With the number of 4th and 5th round picks we have, they should be able to work something out. Do you think the Bills would take a 4th Julius Jones, for Lynch. Do you think that would be fair value for M Lynch?
6. Berry
14. Buluga, Davis or Brown
60. BPA DT
4th's To Bills
4th BPA D Line
5th BPA OG
5th BPA CB
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