The draft is three weeks away so I estimate making two more projections - one next week and then one more on April 21st. I'm going to put the tape back on and revise games over the next week as I finalise my predictions. I also have to contemplate that teams won't necessarily feel the same way I do about prospects.
Round One
#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
As much of a lock today as Matt Stafford was this time last year to go first overall. His pro-day passed by without incident, making this a certainty.
#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
I see Russell Okung placed here and I still don't buy it. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong, but for me it'll be mind blowing should it happen.
#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
The Buccs will settle for McCoy if Suh's off the board. This fills a huge need in Tampa Bay.
#4 Washington: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
Don't be surprised if Davis is the first offensive tackle off the board. Pass protection is superior to the others and so is his upside. I think Shanahan will like this guy.
#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
Nobody thought Tyson Jackson would go third overall this time last year. Kansas City will do what it takes to build a great 3-4 defense. Their moves to improve the offensive line this off season suggests they won't be taking a lineman.
#6 Seattle: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
Don't forget to check out Kyle Rota's report on C.J. Spiller. People aren't predicting this, but I think the Seahawks want a spark and Spiller quite possibly won't be there at #14.
#7 Cleveland: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Browns traded sack leader Kamerion Wimbley. Morgan could be BPA and some scouts think he can work in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. A lot of people can't see Berry falling past this point, but I've always had doubts about his presence this early.
#8 Oakland: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
I'll be honest, when I watched this guy in 2009 I wasn't impressed. But he ran a 4.8 forty yard dash and suddenly people talk about him in a much more positive way. Sounds like an Oakland pick to me.
#9 Buffalo: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
When I watched Okung, I didn't see a dominant force. Kyle Rota's report is a must read. However, I have to appreciate that others rank him higher and this could keep him in the top ten.
#10 Jacksonville: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The Jaguars will probably look to move down if they can. If they stay put, Berry makes sense because the Jaguars are looking to rebuild their secondary.
#11 Denver: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
Kindle fits the system Denver use and there's a chance he goes this early. The Broncos are making big moves on defense.
#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
The Dolphins re-signed Jason Ferguson, but he's suspended for the first half of the season. He's also getting up in years, so adding Williams to play the valuable nose tackle makes sense
#13 San Francisco: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
The Niners are not sold on their QB situation - how else do you describe the current battle between Alex Smith and David Carr? They're aware that it could hold back what is otherwise a very solid roster. They might see Clausen as the answer.
#14 Seattle: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
Brown is the perfect fit for the Alex Gibbs system and this is not a reach for the talented lineman. The Seahawks might look to move down either to draft Brown later, or accumulate picks to accommodate a potential Brandon Marshall trade.
#15 New York Giants: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
Haden repaired his stock with a well run forty at the Florida pro-day in difficult weather conditions.
#16 Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
Pierre-Paul is raw but he has unlimited upside and teams will look at him as someone they can coach into greatness. His lack of experience might keep him out of the top ten, but he owns top ten talent.
#17 San Francisco: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
Mike Singletary loves guys like Taylor Mays. The Niners have a need in the secondary, particularly at the strong safety position. Bryan Bulaga is an alternative.
#18 Pittsburgh: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Steelers are touted to draft offensive lineman every year. Bryan Bulaga and Maurkice Pouncey will be tempting. However, they also need a cornerback.
#19 Atlanta: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Receiver isn't a need for Atlanta, but the Falcons will consider drafting another big target for Matt Ryan.
#20 Houston: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
The run on cornerbacks continues. The Texans will be cautious of filling the hole left by Dunta Robinson's departure.
#21 Cincinnati: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Bengals do have needs on the defensive line and they like USC prospects. Griffen could go higher than this.
#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.
#23 Green Bay: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
Bulaga could drop a little due to technique issues and short arms. The Packers could go cornerback and potentially look at Earl Thomas who remains on the board.
#24 Philadelphia: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
The Eagles might make an addition to their interior line. Pouncey can start at guard in year one and eventually move to center for the long term.
#25 Baltimore: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
The Ravens would find some value in the under rated McCourty, who put on a show at the combine.
#26 Arizona: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
The Cardinals draft for value and could find a potential steal here with Dunlap. Arizona took a chance on Calais Campbell that paid off. Dunlap could be even better.
#27 Dallas: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
Thomas could fall a bit on April 22nd. Jerry Jones will probably like this local prospect with playmaking qualities.
#28 San Diego: Brandon Graham (OLB, Michigan)
Graham is a great pass rusher, but his lack of size could put off teams - as we saw with Everette Brown last year.
#29 New York Jets: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Others will be put off, Rex Ryan won't be. They may even trade up to secure Bryant and give Mark Sanchez a target for the next few years.
#30 Minnesota: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Opinions differ so much on Robinson. He owns top 15 qualities, but watch the tape and you see mistakes. Playing behind a very good defensive line should help.
#31 Indianapolis: Rodger Saffold (OT, Indiana)
The Colts like to draft for offense and they should know a fair bit about this guy given the geography. He's not too big to play tackle for Indianapolis.
#32 New Orleans: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I was never blown away watching tape of Weatherspoon from 2009. He should warrant consideration here though and offers an instant impact as a rookie.
Round Two
#33 St. Louis: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Getting Sam Bradford a safety net - especially one he's worked with in college - makes sense. Injuries are the only reason Gresham is still available here.
#34 Detroit: Brandon Ghee (CB, Wake Forest)
The Lions made a very smart pick in Louis Delmas last year. This would be another wise addition to the secondary.
#35 Tampa Bay: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
The Buccs need to add some weapons for Josh Freeman.
#36 Kansas City: Golden Tate (WR, Notre Dame)
Charlie Weis might make a plea to draft his former Notre Dame playmaker.
#37 Washington: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
Two picks on the offensive line? It could happen. Iupati and Davis have massive potential.
#38 Cleveland: Eric Decker (WR, Minnesota)
Browns GM Tom Heckert personally watched Decker on a number of occasions last year. The Browns need to add another receiver and Decker has the kind of smarts, discipline and route running qualities Mike Holmgren's offense craves.
#39 Oakland: Chris Cook (CB, Virginia)
Al Davis loves to draft defensive backs and he loves to draft guys who run fast forty times. A perfect match.
#40 San Diego: Dominique Franks (CB, Oklahoma)
The Chargers' deal to move up with Seattle could see a corner back targetted early in round two.
#41 Buffalo: Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
Chan Gailey experimented with the spread using Tyler Thigpen in Kansas City. If Jacksonville don't find a way to take him, Buffalo appears to be an alternative but I honestly think there's a chance Tebow goes earlier than this.
#42 Tampa Bay: Amari Spievey (CB, Iowa)
The Buccs have a lot of needs but with cornerbacks dropping off the board they might take a punt on Spievey.
#43 Miami: Ricky Sapp (OLB, Clemson)
Bill Parcells likes to draft linebackers and Sapp would be a steal here.
#44 New England: Anthony McCoy (TE, USC)
The Pats have an opening at tight end. McCoy is under rated.
#45 Denver: Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
LaFell has disappointed at the combine and during the 2009 season, but he has the potential to have a Dwayne Bowe type rookie season.
#46 New York Giants: Jahvid Best (RB, California)
Concussions push Best down the board, but this would be a great fit as part of a three-pronged rushing attack.
#47 New England: Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU)
Hughes could go earlier than this - he'll be valuable as a pure pass rusher.
#48 Carolina: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
Could Price fall this far? He's a disruptive force, but he spends a lot of time off the field during games. With top DT prospects going early in round one, teams at the top of round two could look elsewhere pushing Price down the board.
#49 San Francisco: Vladimir Ducasse (OT, Umass)
The Niners could use Ducasse at tackle or guard.
#50 Kansas City: Cam Thomas (DT, North Carolna)
The Chiefs complete their 3-4 defense with a valuable nose tackle addition.
#51 Houston: Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)
I'm not as high on Mathews as some, but Houston appears ready to draft a new running back.
#52 Pittsburgh: Alex Carrington (DE, Arkansas State)
The Steelers add to their defensive line having drafted a cornerback in round one.
#53 New England: Ben Tate (RB, Auburn)
The Patriots always find ways to add talent and Tate could sneak into round two.
#54 Cincinnati: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
Very athletic, but the tape doesn't show a dominant force.
#55 Philadelphia: Daryl Washington (OLB, TCU)
A rising name who would fill a need for Philly.
#56 Green Bay: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (CB, Indiana)
Cornerbacks won't last long in this draft. Green Bay has a need at the position, but they also need a return specialist. Owusu-Ansah can play a dual role.
#57 Baltimore: Aaron Hernandez (TE, Florida)
The Gators tight end is a pass catching threat for Joe Flacco.
#58 Arizona: Torell Troup (DT, UCF)
The Cardinals might invest a pick at the all important nose tackle position.
#59 Dallas: Damian Williams (WR, USC)
The Cowboys might entertain drafting a wide out in the first two rounds. Williams is a polished route runner who can contribute straight away.
#60 Seattle: Lamarr Houston (DT, Texas)
The Seahawks might have considered Houston at #40. A lack of 4-3 teams in need of an interior presence could mean he's still around twenty picks later - and this is great value.
#61 New York Jets: Linval Joseph (DT, East Carolina)
One to watch - Joseph is a potential nose tackle who ran a 5.09 and benched 39 reps - whilst weighing 328lbs. Strong and fast guys who play this position go early.
#62 Minnesota: Tyson Alualu (DT, California)
Minnesota might look to add to their defensive line with the talented Alualu, who fits the 4-3 scheme.
#63 Indianapolis: Geno Atkins (DT, Georgia)
The Colts like smaller, faster defensive lineman. Atkins ran well at the combine and weighed in under 300lbs.
#64 New Orleans: Morgan Burnett (S, Georgia Tech)
It's unclear what the future holds for Darren Sharper, but if New Orleans move on they'll have a lot of options here. Nate Allen, Reshad Jones and Major Wright could be alternatives.
30 comments:
Just to reiterate - I've left Terrance Cody out of round two again. As I've mentioned previously, he's going to need to be watched every single day of his career. He's never going to stay at a stable weight. He'll need a babysitter and he's a potential nightmare to control. Not to mention, he'll get tired very quickly and may struggle to even manage a two-down role. I'm not sold a team will spend a second round pick for the pleasure of taking on that responsibility. Cody's reputation is big, but I think he could drop into round three.
much better now that Morgan is off the board for the hawks-I just think that no matter how good coach gibbs is, we really need an ot in the first 3 picks, if not at least the first round! I think Spiller is a viable option at 6, and will not make it to 14, so why wait? CB at 14 is awesome as well...
how about we take a safety at 60? burnett instead of Houston? Houston is a beast however-good job!
As of now, I think the #6 pick could go in any direction from McCoy, Spiller, Berry, Morgan, JPP, Bryant, Claussen or Trade. There are so many holes on this team that it will almost certainly be the BPA.
At #14, I am fairly positive that Charles Brown is the #1 target of the Carroll. He fills a huge hole at a valuable position, there is the prior coaching connection and he fits the scheme perfectly.
I would think Carroll's opinion of him has got to be very high considering he trusted him enough to protect the blindside of a true freshman last year.
It is also at a spot where he isn't being over-drafted, but there is not much risk of losing him there. It just makes to much sense to me.
There has also been some talk of Detroit wanting to trade down. Perhaps they'd trade the #2 for the #6 and #60 (possibly a 2011 pick too). Leaving the Hawks with Suh and Brown? Unlikely, but would be terrific.
What's the strength of the Hawks Defense? You would answer that it's our LB crew. Now who do you think is going to be available at the 6 pick that has the best value and can be an immediate impact that will help the LB? The answer is Eric Berry who's also a play-maker is considered the best safety to come into the draft in 32 yrs. Imagine an immediate Pro Bowler at the safety position who can cover the opposing best receiver and play safety. It's a no brainer! At the 14th pick CJ Spiller an elite play-maker is worth the value and fills a position of need.
DUWORKSON - I cannot agree. The thing that will help the linebackers most is a better defensive line, taking up extra blockers and freeing the linebackers to make plays. I'm not sure how a safety - however good - can impact a linebackers performance.
I also don't agree that Berry will be an immediate pro-bowler. I remember people saying similar things about Aaron Curry. Nobody enters the league as an immediate pro-bowler.
Rob,
So John Clayton keeps putting Trent Williams at the #6 spot in his mocks. It seems like there's a major disconnect in his mass media portrayal against the results of tape review here. Media says Williams is really agile, you say he looks too slow for ZBS on the film. Media says his recognition of blitzes and responsibilities is really good, Kip says he goofs up a lot, including on the initial Bradford injury. Since this was Williams' first year at LT, is there any evidence that he improved as the season progressed? Is there evidence that he didn't improve?
You kind of worry that Williams will be like Branden Albert, who had the physical attributes of a LT, yet a year in the Chiefs are thinking of drafting a new LT already.
Akki - When I watched Williams in 2009, I was disappointed. He started badly and was just flat out sloppy for most of the year with some improvements later on. He's a strong guy and he's flashed an athleticism I didn't expect to see at the combine. However, when I watched him in '09 I saw a guy really struggling to get to grips with being a blind side blocker. There were times when he just got flat out beat off the edge and others when he set quickly and was able to get his hands on a DE and just stop them dead.
Now - you look at the athleticism and the lack of experience and you have to decide whether you take the chance on a top ten pick who may never be even a good starting LT, but could be an all-pro RT. With tight end support against lesser pass rushers where he can use his strength and not worry too much about the edge, I think he could be a pro-bowl type. I feel the same way about Bulaga. Both could be brilliant at RT but very average or poor at LT.
I'd prefer to let the Raiders take a chance on his athleticism winning out personally and I don't think he'll be the pick for Seattle that early. He was a consensus RT prospect until the combine when suddenly the physical showing turned heads. Watch the tape, it's a different story for me.
The other thing about Williams - the guy gets penalized too much. He's a walking flag. It's a major issue that needs solving.
KC needs a NT so don't be surprised if they pick Dan Williams, also SFO needs an OT real bad.
I don't believe Spiller or any other RB is going to be our #6. I still won't bet that Clausen isn't PC's QB of the future at 6 and I also believe he will give away whatever he needs to get B Marshall on the team. I think Brown is a target and I think Pete will go after a different RB in later rounds. For my tastes, the current flavor of the day is Deji Karem. If we end up with those 3 after draft day this 12th man would be very happy. If he took McCoy,(if avalible) or Morgan or either Safety Thomas/Berry at 6 I'd still be very happy. Reaches? I could care less....players are either drafted AT/ABOVE/or Below their value. It's a freakin crapshoot at best and the risk is you might set your program back a few years and your peers and your fans will call you a dumbass if you’re wrong. Hell, some will call you that if your right! Big deal! Alex Smith was a bust...(who would have thunk it), Tom Brady and Chris Johnson were brilliant, get over it! Pick who you think will best help this team and if you guess right you get to keep your multi-million job, guess wrong often enough and you'll be looking for another job. Carroll has had no problem putting his nuts on the block in the past and he set this gig up so that he has complete say so and he knows it's his nuts. Get er done Pete!
Opps... Carroll just traded Branch and 14 to Denver for Marshell.... part of this is already done! Yippee Skippy!!!!
What is up with Anthony Davis? He supposedly had a great workout and could be the best pass blocker in the draft, but weight and attitude might hold him back-the 69ers won't pass on him at 13, would he be better then brown? what say ye?
I think the Seahawks need a major rebuild.
We should go for the best players available.
The strength of this draft is the defense. Let's go with the strength and wait to go with offense next year.
We should take Berry at #6
imo we shouldn't draft for need at #6 or #14. they need talent at every position, not only playmakers and OL. this team has to rebuild pretty much an entire team. they should be trading down for more picks or be drafting the best player available at each pick and get the most value. and i wouldn't under any circumstances, trade a first rounder for brandon marshall. if your gonna consider that, then trade down and draft dez bryant instead.
As much as I like going BPA, I don't think it's a good idea to do so independently of positional value. Otherwise you will end up with a plethora of guards, TE's ,LB's, DT's, and safeties that don't make you appreciably better.
Also, Rob I see you have us passing on Burnett in the second. Who do you like in the 4th/5th to fill the vacancy at FS?
Should we consider that Carol's USC trojans have not produced any consistent offensive talent in the NFL? A lot of his defensive players have gone on to be very productive and consistent in the NFL.
From this I can assume that Carrol knows what he is doing when coaching defense. Also I would assume that the offensive philosophy will be more influenced by Jeremy Bates and Alex Gibbs. This for the argument that Carrol needs that Reggie Bush/ Joe Mcknight/ C.J. Spiller type. Those type backs are not as productive in NFL so I think the Hawks might be happy with a back in the lower 2nd round or 4th.
Anonymous- If that holds true and Carroll relies heavily on Bates for his offensive choices, we will be getting things for a pass heavy attack over worrying heavily about the run game. The problem with saying Carroll knows what he'd doing when coaching defenses is true, but it's different in the NFL. Carroll was used to getting close to the best of the best players on his team and getting to pick the cream of the crop helped him get great defenders. He didn't magically mold these amazing players out of people that we're 5-7th round talent, so he'll have to use picks there as well. It'll be interesting to see if he goes after what he knows and is good at, or if he leans on Bates and tries to draft defense later and hope he can mold them.
But I think its worthy of noting usually USC defensive players that are picked early, fit right in and start immediately. That shows some similarity in coaching levels.
Annonymous - I have KC taking a NT and the Niners taking an OT in round two.
Gonzhawk - I've got Anthony Davis going fourth overall.
Donald Duck - for me, Berry is every bit the reach at #14 that Spiller is.
ARNF - Like R. Jones, Wright, Asante, C. Jones. Lot's of options I'll be surprised if there's not someone in round four who can do a job.
Annonymous - I don't think this new Seahawks regime are going to rely on mid/late round skill position guys. It's about time Seattle invested in some better playmakers.
Vlad Ducasse is a OG not a OT, i just dont think SFO is leaving 1st round without a OT
Ducasse is a project at tackle who can use guard as a fall back. There's a good chance whichever team drafts him will either start him at tackle or look to develop him for that position. SF won't have that many options at tackle if there's an early rush, as projected here. Only Bulaga and Brown are on the board at #14 and just Bulaga at #17. They might have to look elsewhere and consider OT later.
#6 - Gerald McCoy
#14 - Charles Brown (hopefully trading back getting a 3rd)
#60 - packaged for B. Marshall somehow, maybe with the pick we trade back for.
Rd. 4a - OG maybe Pietrus
Rd. 4b - Joe McKnight
Rd. 5 - Safety
Rd. 6 - LeGarrette Blount
We still need to fill some serious holes in free agency but I like Blount to go along with a speedy back. Maybe sign Westbrook and get a Safety in the 4th instead.
Rob, I simply do not know why you insist on picking Spiller for us, at either 6 or 14. I doubt if it will happen, picking a RB is NOT a priority here. It would be better to concentrate on our needs. Berry (playmaker-ballhawk to rove center), Morgan, (more polished and a very good talent), Hayden, (great cover man), would all make more sense than any RB. We can pick up a bruiser like Dixon, blount, etc. in the 3-4th. This is Gibbs choices if you look back at Denver, his picks at RB are big guys. We have 5 smaller ones already. (not as fast tho).
I doubt if Gibbs signed on with Carroll if he wasn't given carte blanche in picking HIS offense. I think that Carroll knows that Gibbs needs this to get him.
I hope we move down at 6 no matter who is there (Suh or McCoy we can get more for). Getting more picks are very important for a team that is trying to rebuild in two years (my opinion), so, picks are important. Who said that you can't get top talent in the 2nd and later rounds? This is the draft to get those very good players that will make a differnce, and we need more of them.
Morgan, Berry, Hayden I can see at 6 if we have to pick there. I see CBrown at 14 also. JMHO
Keep up the good work, and let Kip and Kyle know I think their views are important too. Love their breakdowns of players that we may take. I like that Cook at CB.
Terry
Bill - I don't see any way Gerald McCoy makes it to #6.
Annonymous - I would counter a lot of the points you've raised. For starters, I don't think drafting Spiller/RB is any more of a reach than Berry/S. If we're going to talk about pure needs, finding someone who can give an impotent offense an instant spark of game breaking quality is possibly less of a need than finding a FS replacement for Babs. The Seahawks cut their strong safety, lest we forget. Berry is a free safety. You wouldn't intend to start Babs and Berry - it'd be a nightmare against the run. Morgan admittedly is a player I rate very highly who fills a need. However - I am merely projecting the direction I think Seattle will go. I won't necessarily be right, but I don't think Carroll will rely on later round guys at the skill positions in preference of adding another expensive addition to a defense that has already had a lot of investment.
Now - the Gibbs philosophy is not based on 'big backs' like you mentioned. It's based on one-cut guys with vision. Size is irrelevant. The Texans drafted and started Steve Slaton with Gibbs as a coach. For me, Blount is a bad fit for the ZBS and is a pure downhill runner in a power scheme. Having said that, Spiller isn't the ideal ZBS like, for example, a Knowshon Moreno. But I don't think he's a bad fit either, certainly not enough to avoid taking him for that much needed burst of playmaking I think Pete Carroll will look for.
I also disagree with the suggestion Carroll had to pursuade Gibbs by handing over the keys to the offense. As far as I'm aware, Carroll and Gibbs are long time friends who had always shared an ambition to work together. I often hear that guys aren't 'Gibbs' types or draft history when 'Gibbs' was in charge. I don't look at it like that. This is Carroll's gig. It's his vision. Offense, defense, special teams. He makes the calls. Will he take advice? Absolutely. Will he be open to suggestion? Yes. But I don't think he'll be asking Gibbs and OC Jeremy Bates to dictate the personnel decisions on offense. Carroll won't be saying, "Should I draft Spiller?"... he'll be saying... "I like this guy, what can you do with him?" Gibbs and Bates will be charged with making Carroll's vision work. They won't be charged with drafting the rebuild which is truly essential for Seattle to move forward. Aside from getting a productive defensive line, all of Seattle's most pressing needs are on offense. They won't win until they get better at every echelon of the offense. That includes finding someone who can hit the home run, score any time he touches the ball - not to mention pass protect well, catch the ball, return kicks and help keep a defense honest. That's why I continue to project, rightly or wrongly, Spiller to the Seahawks.
Hey Rob,
you might've already covered this, but have you heard of anything from Anthony Davis' personal pro day that was on March 30th? Just curioius....
Thanks!
-Taylor
As a big Giantsfan I'd have to say that I'd get a stiffy if the Giants were able to grab Joe Haden and Javhid Best in the first two rounds.
That would be amazing.
So here's to you and let's hope this happens!
Taylor - There were some reports from Davis' pro-day. Twenty teams were present and he did most drills and looked sharp. It was a positive work out.
No way do the 49ers leave the 1st round without an offensive lineman. As much as you think they need a QB, they are not drafting one in the first two rounds this year, as all their moves have made apparent. They are in a win-now state of mind, they want to see if Alex Smith can lead them to a playoff run, and they're going to focus on improving their offensive line and their defense (probably their backfield).
I also am pretty confident that the Pats will take an o-lineman before they take a RB this year. the right side of that line is weak, and their run-blocking has been poor.
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