By Rob Staton
The draft is three weeks away so I estimate making two more projections - one next week and then one more on April 21st. I'm going to put the tape back on and revise games over the next week as I finalise my predictions. I also have to contemplate that teams won't necessarily feel the same way I do about prospects.
#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
As much of a lock today as Matt Stafford was this time last year to go first overall. His pro-day passed by without incident, making this a certainty.
#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
I see Russell Okung placed here and I still don't buy it. I'll hold my hands up if I'm wrong, but for me it'll be mind blowing should it happen.
#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
The Buccs will settle for McCoy if Suh's off the board. This fills a huge need in Tampa Bay.
#4 Washington: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
Don't be surprised if Davis is the first offensive tackle off the board. Pass protection is superior to the others and so is his upside. I think Shanahan will like this guy.
#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
Nobody thought Tyson Jackson would go third overall this time last year. Kansas City will do what it takes to build a great 3-4 defense. Their moves to improve the offensive line this off season suggests they won't be taking a lineman.
#6 Seattle: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
Don't forget to check out Kyle Rota's report on C.J. Spiller. People aren't predicting this, but I think the Seahawks want a spark and Spiller quite possibly won't be there at #14.
#7 Cleveland: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Browns traded sack leader Kamerion Wimbley. Morgan could be BPA and some scouts think he can work in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. A lot of people can't see Berry falling past this point, but I've always had doubts about his presence this early.
#8 Oakland: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
I'll be honest, when I watched this guy in 2009 I wasn't impressed. But he ran a 4.8 forty yard dash and suddenly people talk about him in a much more positive way. Sounds like an Oakland pick to me.
#9 Buffalo: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
When I watched Okung, I didn't see a dominant force. Kyle Rota's report is a must read. However, I have to appreciate that others rank him higher and this could keep him in the top ten.
#10 Jacksonville: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The Jaguars will probably look to move down if they can. If they stay put, Berry makes sense because the Jaguars are looking to rebuild their secondary.
#11 Denver: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
Kindle fits the system Denver use and there's a chance he goes this early. The Broncos are making big moves on defense.
#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
The Dolphins re-signed Jason Ferguson, but he's suspended for the first half of the season. He's also getting up in years, so adding Williams to play the valuable nose tackle makes sense
#13 San Francisco: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
The Niners are not sold on their QB situation - how else do you describe the current battle between Alex Smith and David Carr? They're aware that it could hold back what is otherwise a very solid roster. They might see Clausen as the answer.
#14 Seattle: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
Brown is the perfect fit for the Alex Gibbs system and this is not a reach for the talented lineman. The Seahawks might look to move down either to draft Brown later, or accumulate picks to accommodate a potential Brandon Marshall trade.
#15 New York Giants: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
Haden repaired his stock with a well run forty at the Florida pro-day in difficult weather conditions.
#16 Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
Pierre-Paul is raw but he has unlimited upside and teams will look at him as someone they can coach into greatness. His lack of experience might keep him out of the top ten, but he owns top ten talent.
#17 San Francisco: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
Mike Singletary loves guys like Taylor Mays. The Niners have a need in the secondary, particularly at the strong safety position. Bryan Bulaga is an alternative.
#18 Pittsburgh: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Steelers are touted to draft offensive lineman every year. Bryan Bulaga and Maurkice Pouncey will be tempting. However, they also need a cornerback.
#19 Atlanta: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Receiver isn't a need for Atlanta, but the Falcons will consider drafting another big target for Matt Ryan.
#20 Houston: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
The run on cornerbacks continues. The Texans will be cautious of filling the hole left by Dunta Robinson's departure.
#21 Cincinnati: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Bengals do have needs on the defensive line and they like USC prospects. Griffen could go higher than this.
#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.
#23 Green Bay: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
Bulaga could drop a little due to technique issues and short arms. The Packers could go cornerback and potentially look at Earl Thomas who remains on the board.
#24 Philadelphia: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
The Eagles might make an addition to their interior line. Pouncey can start at guard in year one and eventually move to center for the long term.
#25 Baltimore: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
The Ravens would find some value in the under rated McCourty, who put on a show at the combine.
#26 Arizona: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
The Cardinals draft for value and could find a potential steal here with Dunlap. Arizona took a chance on Calais Campbell that paid off. Dunlap could be even better.
#27 Dallas: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
Thomas could fall a bit on April 22nd. Jerry Jones will probably like this local prospect with playmaking qualities.
#28 San Diego: Brandon Graham (OLB, Michigan)
Graham is a great pass rusher, but his lack of size could put off teams - as we saw with Everette Brown last year.
#29 New York Jets: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Others will be put off, Rex Ryan won't be. They may even trade up to secure Bryant and give Mark Sanchez a target for the next few years.
#30 Minnesota: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Opinions differ so much on Robinson. He owns top 15 qualities, but watch the tape and you see mistakes. Playing behind a very good defensive line should help.
#31 Indianapolis: Rodger Saffold (OT, Indiana)
The Colts like to draft for offense and they should know a fair bit about this guy given the geography. He's not too big to play tackle for Indianapolis.
#32 New Orleans: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I was never blown away watching tape of Weatherspoon from 2009. He should warrant consideration here though and offers an instant impact as a rookie.
#33 St. Louis: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Getting Sam Bradford a safety net - especially one he's worked with in college - makes sense. Injuries are the only reason Gresham is still available here.
#34 Detroit: Brandon Ghee (CB, Wake Forest)
The Lions made a very smart pick in Louis Delmas last year. This would be another wise addition to the secondary.
#35 Tampa Bay: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
The Buccs need to add some weapons for Josh Freeman.
#36 Kansas City: Golden Tate (WR, Notre Dame)
Charlie Weis might make a plea to draft his former Notre Dame playmaker.
#37 Washington: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
Two picks on the offensive line? It could happen. Iupati and Davis have massive potential.
#38 Cleveland: Eric Decker (WR, Minnesota)
Browns GM Tom Heckert personally watched Decker on a number of occasions last year. The Browns need to add another receiver and Decker has the kind of smarts, discipline and route running qualities Mike Holmgren's offense craves.
#39 Oakland: Chris Cook (CB, Virginia)
Al Davis loves to draft defensive backs and he loves to draft guys who run fast forty times. A perfect match.
#40 San Diego: Dominique Franks (CB, Oklahoma)
The Chargers' deal to move up with Seattle could see a corner back targetted early in round two.
#41 Buffalo: Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
Chan Gailey experimented with the spread using Tyler Thigpen in Kansas City. If Jacksonville don't find a way to take him, Buffalo appears to be an alternative but I honestly think there's a chance Tebow goes earlier than this.
#42 Tampa Bay: Amari Spievey (CB, Iowa)
The Buccs have a lot of needs but with cornerbacks dropping off the board they might take a punt on Spievey.
#43 Miami: Ricky Sapp (OLB, Clemson)
Bill Parcells likes to draft linebackers and Sapp would be a steal here.
#44 New England: Anthony McCoy (TE, USC)
The Pats have an opening at tight end. McCoy is under rated.
#45 Denver: Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
LaFell has disappointed at the combine and during the 2009 season, but he has the potential to have a Dwayne Bowe type rookie season.
#46 New York Giants: Jahvid Best (RB, California)
Concussions push Best down the board, but this would be a great fit as part of a three-pronged rushing attack.
#47 New England: Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU)
Hughes could go earlier than this - he'll be valuable as a pure pass rusher.
#48 Carolina: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
Could Price fall this far? He's a disruptive force, but he spends a lot of time off the field during games. With top DT prospects going early in round one, teams at the top of round two could look elsewhere pushing Price down the board.
#49 San Francisco: Vladimir Ducasse (OT, Umass)
The Niners could use Ducasse at tackle or guard.
#50 Kansas City: Cam Thomas (DT, North Carolna)
The Chiefs complete their 3-4 defense with a valuable nose tackle addition.
#51 Houston: Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)
I'm not as high on Mathews as some, but Houston appears ready to draft a new running back.
#52 Pittsburgh: Alex Carrington (DE, Arkansas State)
The Steelers add to their defensive line having drafted a cornerback in round one.
#53 New England: Ben Tate (RB, Auburn)
The Patriots always find ways to add talent and Tate could sneak into round two.
#54 Cincinnati: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
Very athletic, but the tape doesn't show a dominant force.
#55 Philadelphia: Daryl Washington (OLB, TCU)
A rising name who would fill a need for Philly.
#56 Green Bay: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (CB, Indiana)
Cornerbacks won't last long in this draft. Green Bay has a need at the position, but they also need a return specialist. Owusu-Ansah can play a dual role.
#57 Baltimore: Aaron Hernandez (TE, Florida)
The Gators tight end is a pass catching threat for Joe Flacco.
#58 Arizona: Torell Troup (DT, UCF)
The Cardinals might invest a pick at the all important nose tackle position.
#59 Dallas: Damian Williams (WR, USC)
The Cowboys might entertain drafting a wide out in the first two rounds. Williams is a polished route runner who can contribute straight away.
#60 Seattle: Lamarr Houston (DT, Texas)
The Seahawks might have considered Houston at #40. A lack of 4-3 teams in need of an interior presence could mean he's still around twenty picks later - and this is great value.
#61 New York Jets: Linval Joseph (DT, East Carolina)
One to watch - Joseph is a potential nose tackle who ran a 5.09 and benched 39 reps - whilst weighing 328lbs. Strong and fast guys who play this position go early.
#62 Minnesota: Tyson Alualu (DT, California)
Minnesota might look to add to their defensive line with the talented Alualu, who fits the 4-3 scheme.
#63 Indianapolis: Geno Atkins (DT, Georgia)
The Colts like smaller, faster defensive lineman. Atkins ran well at the combine and weighed in under 300lbs.
#64 New Orleans: Morgan Burnett (S, Georgia Tech)
It's unclear what the future holds for Darren Sharper, but if New Orleans move on they'll have a lot of options here. Nate Allen, Reshad Jones and Major Wright could be alternatives.