A lot has happened since my last projection. Donovan McNabb is now in Washington and Rob Sims is in Detroit. It won't have much impact on the top of my mock draft because I already had the Redskins taking a left tackle and the Lions taking Ndamukong Suh. However, I've still made some noticeable changes.
Round One
#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
As much of a lock today as Matt Stafford was this time last year to go first overall.
#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
The Sims trade just confirms for me what I've said all along - this pick won't be a left tackle.
#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
The Buccs will settle for McCoy if Suh's off the board. This fills a huge need in Tampa Bay.
#4 Washington: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
Don't be surprised if Davis is the first offensive tackle off the board. Pass protection is superior to the others and so is his upside. I think Shanahan will like this guy.
#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
Nobody thought Tyson Jackson would go third overall this time last year. Kansas City will do what it takes to build a great 3-4 defense. Their moves to improve the offensive line this off season suggests they won't be taking a lineman.
#6 Seattle: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
There's been rumors this week that Seattle have narrowed their decision here to Eric Berry and Trent Williams. Regular visitors to this blog will know I've been critical of both, but this isn't my choice. Williams is athletic and powerful but he's penalised too much.
#7 Cleveland: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Browns traded sack leader Kamerion Wimbley. Morgan could be BPA and some scouts think he can work in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. A lot of people can't see Berry falling past this point, but I've always had doubts about his presence this early.
#8 Oakland: Bruce Campbell (OT, Maryland)
Campbell isn't worthy of this pick, but we know how Al Davis drafts.
#9 Buffalo: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
When I watched Okung, I didn't see a dominant force. Kyle Rota's report is a must read. However, I have to appreciate that others rank him higher and this could keep him in the top ten.
#10 Jacksonville: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
The Jaguars will probably look to move down if they can. If they stay put, Berry makes sense because the Jaguars are looking to rebuild their secondary.
#11 Denver: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
Kindle fits the system Denver use and there's a chance he goes this early. The Broncos are making big moves on defense.
#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
The Dolphins re-signed Jason Ferguson, but he's suspended for the first half of the season. He's also getting up in years, so adding Williams to play the valuable nose tackle position makes sense.
#13 San Francisco: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
The Niners are not sold on their QB situation - how else do you describe the current battle between Alex Smith and David Carr? They're aware that it could hold back what is otherwise a very solid roster. They might see Clausen as the answer.
#14 Seattle: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
I heard a rumor doing the rounds that Seattle are touting this spot for a 2011 first rounder and a 2010 second round pick. If they get no takers, Haden and Earl Thomas are possibilities.
#15 New York Giants: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
The Giants have a solid roster and would be a nice landing spot for a prospect like Spiller who would compliment their rushing attack with explosion.
#16 Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
Pierre-Paul is raw but he has unlimited upside and teams will look at him as someone they can coach into greatness. His lack of experience might keep him out of the top ten, but he owns top ten talent.
#17 San Francisco: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
Bulaga might even go a bit later than this. The Niners want a right tackle though and Bulaga fits the bill.
#18 Pittsburgh: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Steelers are touted to draft offensive lineman every year. Bryan Bulaga and Maurkice Pouncey will be tempting. However, they also need a cornerback.
#19 Atlanta: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Receiver isn't a need for Atlanta, but the Falcons will consider drafting another big target for Matt Ryan.
#20 Houston: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
The run on cornerbacks continues. The Texans will be cautious of filling the hole left by Dunta Robinson's departure.
#21 Cincinnati: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Bengals do have needs on the defensive line and they like USC prospects. Griffen could go higher than this.
#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.
#23 Green Bay: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
I'm a big fan of Brown's and believe he could go earlier than this. Earl Thomas or a cornerback could be an alternative option here.
#24 Philadelphia: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
The Eagles need a free safety and could use Thomas creatively in the secondary.
#25 Baltimore: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
The Ravens would find some value in the under rated McCourty, who put on a show at the combine.
#26 Arizona: Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida)
The Cardinals draft for value and could find a potential steal here with Dunlap. Arizona took a chance on Calais Campbell that paid off. Dunlap could be even better.
#27 Dallas: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
The Cowboys moved on Ken Hamlin creating a space at the strong safety position. Mays could be an option.
#28 San Diego: Brandon Graham (OLB, Michigan)
Graham is a great pass rusher, but his lack of size could put off teams - as we saw with Everette Brown last year.
#29 New York Jets: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Others will be put off, Rex Ryan won't be. They may even trade up to secure Bryant and give Mark Sanchez a target for the next few years.
#30 Minnesota: Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State)
Opinions differ so much on Robinson. He owns top 15 qualities, but watch the tape and you see mistakes. Playing behind a very good defensive line should help.
#31 Indianapolis: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
The Colts have the time and quality to prepare Pouncey as the heir apparent to Jeff Saturday.
#32 New Orleans: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I was never blown away watching tape of Weatherspoon from 2009. He should warrant consideration here though and offers an instant impact as a rookie.
Round Two
#33 St. Louis: Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma)
Getting Sam Bradford a safety net - especially one he's worked with in college - makes sense. Injuries are the only reason Gresham is still available here.
#34 Detroit: Brandon Ghee (CB, Wake Forest)
The Lions made a very smart pick in Louis Delmas last year. This would be another wise addition to the secondary.
#35 Tampa Bay: Arrelious Benn (WR, Illinois)
The Buccs need to add some weapons for Josh Freeman.
#36 Kansas City: Golden Tate (WR, Notre Dame)
Charlie Weis might make a plea to draft his former Notre Dame playmaker.
#37 Philadelphia: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
The Eagles' pick up this selection from Washington and could turn it into a long term answer on the interior line.
#38 Cleveland: Eric Decker (WR, Minnesota)
Browns GM Tom Heckert personally watched Decker on a number of occasions last year. The Browns need to add another receiver and Decker has the kind of smarts, discipline and route running qualities Mike Holmgren's offense craves.
#39 Oakland: Chris Cook (CB, Virginia)
Al Davis loves to draft defensive backs and he loves to draft guys who run fast forty times. A perfect match.
#40 San Diego: Dominique Franks (CB, Oklahoma)
The Chargers' deal to move up with Seattle could see a corner back targetted early in round two.
#41 Buffalo: Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
Chan Gailey experimented with the spread using Tyler Thigpen in Kansas City. If Jacksonville don't find a way to take him, Buffalo appears to be an alternative. Either way, whoever wants him might have to trade back into round one. I think Tebow will go earlier than this.
#42 Tampa Bay: Amari Spievey (CB, Iowa)
The Buccs have a lot of needs but with cornerbacks dropping off the board they might take a punt on Spievey.
#43 Miami: Ricky Sapp (OLB, Clemson)
Bill Parcells likes to draft linebackers and Sapp would be a steal here.
#44 New England: Anthony McCoy (TE, USC)
The Pats have an opening at tight end. McCoy is under rated.
#45 Denver: Brandon LaFell (WR, LSU)
LaFell has disappointed at the combine and during the 2009 season, but he has the potential to have a Dwayne Bowe type rookie season.
#46 New York Giants: Brian Price (DT, UCLA)
The Giants could find excellent value with Price here. He only falls because he gets knicked up in games - but in a rotation he should be good.
#47 Carolina: Mardy Gilyard (WR, Cincinnati)
Gilyard is a mystery - I think he could go here or fall well into the 3rd.
#48 San Francisco: Nate Allen (S, USF)
The Niners add to their secondary having drafted a quarterback and an offensive tackle in round one.
#49 New England: Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU)
The Patriots might add to their pass rush. Hughes could go higher than this.
#50 Kansas City: Cam Thomas (DT, North Carolna)
The Chiefs complete their 3-4 defense with a valuable nose tackle addition.
#51 Houston: Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)
I'm not as high on Mathews as some, but Houston appears ready to draft a new running back.
#52 Pittsburgh: Roger Saffold (OT, Indiana)
The Steelers might spend a pick on someone like Saffold, who is capable of lining up at tackle or guard.
#53 New England: Ben Tate (RB, Auburn)
The Patriots always find value in round two. Tate could end up being a steal in New England's offense.
#54 Cincinnati: Lamarr Houston (DT, Texas)
Would the Bengals invest two early picks on their defensive line? Houston offers solid value and would really help the Bengals up front.
#55 Philadelphia: Daryl Washington (OLB, TCU)
A rising name who would fill a need for Philly.
#56 Green Bay: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (CB, Indiana)
Cornerbacks won't last long in this draft. Green Bay has a need at the position, but they also need a return specialist. Owusu-Ansah can play a dual role.
#57 Baltimore: Aaron Hernandez (TE, Florida)
The Gators tight end is a pass catching threat for Joe Flacco.
#58 Arizona: Torell Troup (DT, UCF)
The Cardinals might invest a pick at the all important nose tackle position.
#59 Dallas: Damian Williams (WR, USC)
The Cowboys might entertain drafting a wide out in the first two rounds. Williams is a polished route runner who can contribute straight away.
#60 Seattle: Jahvid Best (RB, California)
Best's concussion issues could lead to a fall. The Seahawks will struggle to get Brandon Marshall without giving up much more than this, so finding some offense in round two is crucial.
#61 New York Jets: Linval Joseph (DT, East Carolina)
One to watch - Joseph is a potential nose tackle who ran a 5.09 and benched 39 reps - whilst weighing 328lbs. Strong and fast guys who play this position go early.
#62 Minnesota: Tyson Alualu (DT, California)
Minnesota might look to add to their defensive line with the talented Alualu, who fits the 4-3 scheme.
#63 Indianapolis: Geno Atkins (DT, Georgia)
The Colts like smaller, faster defensive lineman. Atkins ran well at the combine and weighed in under 300lbs.
#64 New Orleans: Morgan Burnett (S, Georgia Tech)
It's unclear what the future holds for Darren Sharper, but if New Orleans move on they'll have a lot of options here. Nate Allen, Reshad Jones and Major Wright could be alternatives.
60 comments:
Hey Rob -
Where did you hear the rumors about using #6 for Berry or Williams? AND trading #14 for future picks?
I would not oppose trading the #14 for a 2011 1st and a 2010 2nd.
Perhaps the Lions would be interested in trading #34 and the 2011 1st for the #14. That would allow them to take Suh and either Brown or Bulaga. That way they would still get Suh and a LT. The 2011 1st will most likely be better than #14 as well. However a possible lockout could make this risky, but I would love to pull this off.
You could then try and trade down from #6 to pick up another 2nd rounder. Maybe the Giants would trade #15 and #46 to trade up and take Derrick Morgan. Now you'd have #15, #34, #46 and #60.
#15- Brown or Bulaga
#34- Brandon Marshall
#46- Brian Price
#60 Best
This scenario has a lot of moving parts, but it would increase the talent level, while also setting up for a good draft in 2011 with 2 1st rounders.
Big changes Rob, but they make a lot of sense given the data. Thanks for all your hard work on all of these mocks you consistently churn out. I might prefer Bulaga to Williams by a small amount, but Williams probably has a higher ceiling and is more dominant as a run blocker. Both should be solid at RT even if LT doesn't work out. There's some comfort in that.
Any mock is a tough sell because we have so many dramatic needs. I'm not too keen on trading the 14 for a 2nd and future 1st. Not unless it's a high 2nd this year and the team we trade with is likely to suck again next year.
An aside: If Jahvid Best falls to #60 and we take him I vow that I will shotgun 3 consecutive 24 oz Keystone Lights in celebration.
Nano, pass me the other three Keystone Lights from the six pack! If we don't get Spiller but end up landing Best, I would be very excited.
How does the lions acquisition of a mediocre guard in Sims confirm that they wont take a left tackle? Also, if the Seahawks take Williams at #6 im gonna puke.
Rumors started here: http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=13271
USAFANARC: Deal!
Annonymous - I've never felt Detroit were going to take a left tackle. It's been a non starter from day one. However, the argument was if they drafted a LT then Backus moves inside. By trading for Sims, he now takes up the vacant LG spot. Sims will start. They have a first round pick playing RT. They like Backus more than most want to admit or comprehend. The moves made in free agency on defense were merely part of a large upheavel to improve the worst defense in the NFL and Suh/McCoy will be complete that.
Savage - it's going to be nigh on impossible to move down from #6. If they are able to trade #14 for a 2011 first rounder and a second round pick, it'll be with a bigger plan in mind. You don't make such a move without having a guy in mind. It doesn't take much guessing to realise who they might be targetting in a year's time.
As for candidates for the trade, nobody jumps off the page as a candidate. Houston maybe? Carolina? Dallas? I'm not sure Seattle will find a match there, but they'll try.
Rob;
If you are guessing that the Hawks may target Locker next year, I suspect that 10-15 teams are going to be doing that as well. It would not surprise me to see SF or NE try to get another 1st next year to go after him as well. We would be better off taking the two birds in our hand than trying for the big bird in the bush.
Rob,
Just wondering, but if you had CJ Spiller going to us at #6 in your last draft, what has changed that made us pass on him with our 14th pick when he was still available?
Rob-
As always, thanks for the good info. With the trade of Sims to Detroit we are more need then ever of OL. At this point I would be happy getting any of the top OT's with the six pick. Who stands out as 4th and 5th round gaurds that fit Gibbs zone blocking? I Read Kips write up on Alex Gibbs and it sounded like any O linemen he drafts take a year or two of practice squad time before they are even close to being ready. We don't have a year or two. Thoughts?
Michael - that of course is true. However, having two first round picks would give them the ammunition to go after a certain prospect if they so desired or needed to. I don't think they feel as highly about whats on offer this year.
Louis - just things I've heard about him being an unlikely selection at either pick.
Annonymous - I think the Seahawks will probably add a veteran at some stage. They could start a guy like Williams alongside Spencer, Unger, Willis and Locklear. We'll see. With regard to later round guys - some names to watch for: Mitch Petrus (Arkansas), Zane Beadles (Utah), J.D. Walton (Baylor), Ted Larson (North Carolina State), Matt Tennant (Boston College), John Estes (Hawaii), Joe Hawley (UNLV), Shawn Lauvao (Arizona State), Selvish Capers (West Virginia), Jason Fox (Miami), Mike Johnson (Alabama), Alonzo Durham (Nevada), Chris Scott (Tennessee), Shelley Smith (Colorado State) and Nick Howell (USC).
I've heard the rumor about the #14 pick asking price, but I've never heard anything about interest in Haden/Thomas. Was that a rumor you heard as well? Because I don't think Thomas makes any sense (FS, well under 6 foot) for Seattle, and though I like Haden, he's 5'10" and is considered more of a man coverage guy.
Hey Rob and Kip, This is a article from the Seattle PI Bleacher Report:
3. Eagles are interested in Berry and know he won’t be around at No. 24.
Eric Berry is in Philly to be closely evaluated. Philly knows there is NO way that Berry would be available at No. 24.
Andy Reid is also smart enough to know that there is NO way that Berry slides past Cleveland at No. 7.
If Berry is available at No. 6, that is the ideal slot for Philly to trade into to snag Berry, the ball hawk free safety that Reid realized his D is missing since Brian Dawkins left for Denver last year.
With so many Hawk needs, two incremental selections would be valued greatly in this deep draft.
4The Hawks could add two incremental selections along with the swap of No. 6 and No. 24, likely Philly’s selections No. 37 received in the deal for McNabb and No. 70, the selection received from the Hawks last year, to build our team and fill multiple holes while potentially still nabbing Earl Thomas and giving us the flexibility to trade for Brandon Marshall.
Seattle would then have selections No. 14, No. 24, No. 37, No. 60, No. 70, No. 104, No. 127, No. 133 and No. 139 through round five . That is A LOT of ammunition to meet numerous needs including a trade for Brandon Marshall.
Nine selections in the top 140 would give the Hawks draft flexibility and the opportunity to revamp this aging and lacking of talent squad.
When you look at a) the Hawks and Eagles trade history, b) analyze the fact that the Eagles have traded their first round selection in seven of eight years, c) think about the Philly’s interest in Eric Berry to replace the 2009 departure of Brian Dawkins by bringing him to the city of brotherly love for a workout and 4) giving the Hawks incremental selections to fill multiple needs, I say, don’t be shocked if the Eagles and Hawks execute a draft day trade.
What do you guys think of this scenario. I would love it!
Rob, Trent Williams is not the sexy pick that I would necessarily draft but it's the right one for this team. Hopefully, he is still on the board when the hawks are on the clock. However, I have to disagree on Joe Haden with the 14th pick. I would rather take the chance on Dez Bryant. The kid is a freak of nature and after watching some game film he is surprisingly faster with pads on. Dez has that YAC factor that all team covet. Along with his size and athletic ability he can potential turn into a playmaker at the next level. Your 2nd round pick of Jahvid Best is brilliant! Hopefully, Best is available! I would also look into bundling our two 4th Rd. picks and move up into the 3rd rd. I understand that Brandon Marshall is still available but this team can't afford to lose early draft picks when we our in a rebuilding phase. I would rather take my chances on younger players and develop them.
Kip - included in the rumor was that if Seattle couldn't trade the #14, they'd consider Morgan, Haden, Thomas or an OT if they take Berry at #6. In my mock, Morgan is gone so Haden was the choice. I'm a big fan of Haden's and always have been - I think he can work zone. You make a legitimate point about Thomas, but a lot of teams are reportedly incredibly high on the guy. Mayock ranks him above Berry. Might be too good to turn down. I like Thomas but agree with you.
Lenny - I think it's incredibly unlikely Philly will make that move but ultimately it's fun to discuss and not beyond the realms of complete possibility. I can't see it though.
DUWORKSON - they'd have to consider Bryant because wide out is a major need. His stock is hard to judge. I could see him sticking around early in round one or falling like a stone. It's one of those that you wait and see on draft day. Some teams will be put off. Some won't. I have no idea what Seattle thinks about Bryant.
Rob, appreciate the thought-provoking mocks as usual. The draft will be fun to watch, particularly with how the Hawks will play a pivotal role with 2 early picks. I love the idea of trading 14 as suggested. If we can do that every year, we continue to generate an additional 2nd round pick each year. It's like the power of compounded interest. We are the bankers, and teams desparate to trade up are the suckers.
I have to say that Trent Williams at 6 doesn't fill me with glee. That said, there are so many conflicting reports on all the OT prospects, it's hard to know who we should take. Still, I prefer Okung, Davis or Morgan, in that order.
Oh, and at 60, I'd much prefer Alualu or Burnett, whom you have going 62 and 64, to Jahvid Best. I still think RB will addressed in the 4th round.
Any chance the rumors about trading 14 for a 2nd and 2011 first rounder are to position better for Marshall trade? Either of those picks might entice the Broncos to deal.
Annonymous - thanks for the kind words. When you have two first round picks you have that opportunity to get creative with one of them. Seattle should look at every possibility to move around on April 22nd. Getting a high-ish second rounder in this draft and another first next year would be an interesting move. Lot's of quality still available in the 30's and 40's. Might not be as much depth outside of round one next year, it could be a top heavy draft in 2011.
Hard to tell what Seattle is planning at running back. I think they will draft one. Some options I like in that round 4-5 range, some UDFA's I like for camp. To be honest though, nobody comes close to the explosion offered by Spiller and Best. Concussion's worry me with Best but at #60 the cost is minimal for the upside and you can use him in rotation.
They'll monitor the Marshall situation. I have no idea what Denver are planning. Do they stick to their guns and keep Marshall if day one goes by and nobody coughed up a first rounder? Do they look for the best deal whatever it is in day two just to get rid? How much are they determined to just move on? You also have to wonder what Seattle would be willing to give up. Is two second rounders too much but one not enough? What other teams are interested if any?
Lot's of unanswered questions. Wouldn't surprise me if Denver don't get the deal they want and perhaps against their wishes - they end up stuck with Marshall for another year. We'll see. Seattle needs a guy with Marshall's ability.
This seems sensible to me: Seattle trades its sixth overall pick, sixtieth pick in the second round and Deion Branch for Marshall and Denver's 11th overall pick. The Broncos move into the top ten.
I'd love to get Best at 60, and I'd trade up higher for him. But man, I can't see San Diego passing on both Best and Mathews twice.
Michael - FYI, NE already has 2 first round picks in next years draft. Last year they traded Richard Seymour to Oakland for their 2011 first round pick. As sick as it is for Seahawks fans, I think we need to root for Oakland to win as many games as possible (except against us), because if they stink, NE will be in a great position to grab Locker and have him sit for a year or 2 behind Brady, then they can trade Brady for another high draft pick and have Locker for the next 10-15 years. It would probably be the perfect senario for Locker, but would really suck for us.
see:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/373948-dont-be-shocked-to-see-an-eagle-and-hawk-swap-of-6-and-24
I like it!!!!
It would be awesome, and obviously has some merit to it if Philly is bringing him in to workout, but I have a hard time seeing someone trade up that far for a safety. 24 to 6 is like stud QB/LT/DE territory.
I would love that trade. It is always interesting to talk about.
Just think,
2 first round, 2 second round, 2 forth round, 2 fifth round and one of the others.
What position would we not be able to fill in the first 4 and 2 picks only 8 picks into the 5th round.
5 picks before round four leaves a lot of opportunity to pick up OL in rounds 4 and 5.
Rob, I understand you evaluate the offensive tackles differently but there is no way that the NFL values them the same as you do. Russell Okung will NOT be the 3rd OT taken. And Davis will certainly not be the first! His attitude problems have gotten worse, not better, his pro day was a disaster and I just don't see Shanahan drafting that kind of player.
And I will still stand by my observations of Davis at the 2nd level, he is a statue, his effort was non-exsistent and not worth the number 4 pick.
And personally, I don't think Jahvid Best should be allowed to play in the NFL after having 2 major concussions in college. What does he think will happen when he gets hammered by Patrick Willis or someone like Taylor Mays? He hasn't played since his last concussion so how healthy is he really?
I like this draft.
#14 Charles Brown
#24 Carlos Dunlap
#37 Jahvid Best (Dont see him falling to 60) or Marshal trade.
#60 Morgan Burnett
#70 Top WR available
That doesn't even crack the 4th round.
here is a huge what if.
We trade:
1) 14 for a second and next years first rounder (Say Carolina for argument sake)
and
2) 6 for Eagles 24, (next years first or 37), and #70.
I think that next years first and 37 this year are about equal value. Correct?
This gives us this for a draft
#24 Charles Brown
(Maybe #37 if not next years first) grab Marshal we get 37.
#48 Jahvid Best
#60 Morgan Burnett
#70 Best WR or DT
Next year we would have
Our #1 (probably in the 10-15 range)
Carolinas #1 (Probably around 15)
maybe Eagles #1 (Probably top 20 because it will be the first year without McNabb.
And a mid 2nd round pick of our own.
Wow, That is all I could say if these things happen.
4 picks+ in the top 70 (8+ total in the top 140) in an extremely deep draft this year.
maybe 4 picks in the first 50 picks of next years weaker draft.
Rob...
I think Clausen is going to Minnesota.
Rob,
Do you actually think the rumour you based the Hawks' picks on this time is true, or was it just an exercise in seeing the draft play out according to the rumour? Credible source?
Don't get hung up on the FS/SS positions. Most GM's are moving away from a run stuffer/big hitter in the box. Instead, they want two guys that run and cover. Eric Berry is still a legit possibility at #6.
Steve, the rumors come from The12thMan, who says he "knows people" and "hears things". He broke the Ruvell Martin signing before it happened, FWIW, so he must have some level of insider knowledge: http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=12475&p=150393#p150393
Ivotuk - all I can do is give my honest opinion. Davis pro-day, from what I heard, went smoothly when he actually worked out. The issue was he didn't work out at the original date and didn't tell anyone. However, he did everything at the combine. Despite Andre Smith's disaster of an off season last year, he went 6th overall. It only takes one team to fall in love with a guy. I think Washington could do that with Davis. Now - I'm willing to be proven wrong. But Shanahan knows offensive lineman and I just can't see Okung going there. For all Davis' issues, I think he's miles better than Okung. Heck, the Skins could take Trent Williams there. But I don't think OKung is a lock. A lot of people thought Eugene Monroe would go 3rd overall last year, but he went 8th and was the third tackle taken. It could happen with Okung.
Interesting, the buzz seems to be building, from Matt McGuire's latest Mock:
"6. Seattle Seahawks: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Trent Williams or Eric Berry? Eric Berry or Trent Williams? I really feel if the 2010 NFL Draft plays out like I expect it to now, that these are the only two options for Seattle here. ...
Trent Williams is VERY much in play here too and I could see them wanting to add a left tackle. You might as well flip a coin."
http://walterfootball.com/draft2010matt.php
you do realize that your missing the patriots third 2nd round pick, i believe it is the titans original pick
Hamish - I see three Patriots picks in round two.
Well Rob if you have the avalibilty of players right, I would look
#6 Okung He'll never be there.
#14 Morgan or JPP, hopefully Morgan
#60 Gerhart or Tate, good tag team with Forsett.
I don't see Iupati sliding out of round one Arizona at #26 wants to pound the ball without Warner.
Ryan Matthews is underrated here as he can carry a large workload. with so many teams with young QBs he'll go a little earlier like #40 Chargers.
I'd love to see Best off the board and Ben Tate still on it at #60.
Their is a league wide agreement Davis is not a top ten pick.
Nice work on the Mock Draft I dont agree with most of it just because I think you miss on 1-2-4 and that changes the whole board. although most guy's are right around where everone else has them.
I still think trading Tapp sealed our fate for a first round DE. Any thoughts Rob?
Savage,
#15- Brown or Bulaga
#34- Brandon Marshall
#46- Brian Price
#60 Best
If this happened AND we had the Lion's first round pick next year, I'd crap bricks. Even if we had the Lion's second round pick I'd be happy.
The more I think about it, the more I think we should trade down for both #6 and #14. 14 actually is not quite as important to trade down because I think a Haden/Morgan/Thomas type will be there.
Within this scenario, what about Morgan at 6 and Brown at 14? Wouldn't that be better 1st round value (at least in your eyes)? Hopefully we'll be able to package the 60th plus a future pick for Marshall- I guess we'll see how desperate Denver is to get rid of the guy.
While I understand the selection of Trent Williams at #6 I'm not really high on him. From what I saw of him this past year he does not warrant a top-10 selection, but he had a great combine which seemed to really elevate his stock.
I too think Anthony Davis is the best LT in the draft, especially for zone blocking teams. The biggest knock on him seems to be that he is immature, but he is only 20 year old guy, so I am not overlly concerned about it.
At #14 I would prefer S Earl Thomas over CB Joe Hayden. I'm not worried that Thomas is 5-11 205 lbs, some of the top playmaking safeties in the NFL are around his size. Thomas was a big time playmaker and had a better year than Eric Berry.
Some interesting stuff with this weeks mock. I like that you mix it up Rob. The fact is that anything can happen and so often you see mocks that rarely change which takes the fun out of the discussion.
So, the Eagles rumor is intriguing. I don't really think they'd give up all of those picks for Berry. Maybe 24, 37, and something later or a player but tossing in the #70 seems like a lot in a pretty deep draft. I could be wrong though and I'd love if it worked out that way because we have so many needs and even if some of these guys bust, some of them will stick.
I think Jahvid Best would be an incredible steal at #60 and would be very happy if we got him. Concussions are a big concern but how often do you see a guy retire in their early 20's due to a concussion? Personally I don't think Best will fall this far and if he does we must grab him.
Joe Haden while he would be a welcome addition does not seem like the best option for us right now. Hopefully that pick becomes multiple picks later in the draft and it's a moot point.
Trent Williams is concerning to me. His athleticism at the combine did not seem to translate onto the field. Before the combine wasn't everyone saying that he was a right tackle because he was not a very good pass blocker? This to me sounds like a slightly better Bruce Campbell and I think we can do much better at #6. I'm not one to question professional football scouts but I would be very skeptical of this pick.
Frankfrog - I don't agree that in anything like a league wide agreement on a prospect. For me, there's no reason why Russell Okung and Bryan Bulaga should be top ten locks as a lot of people think and not Davis. It only takes one team to rate one guy above another. I accept that nobody else is calling Davis to Washington. I'll either be proven completely wrong (and I'll be happy to admit so and hold my hands up) or there's going to be a surprise.
I think the Bills may want Clausen, if they don't want Jason Campbell. I would trade our 6 and our 2011 2nd rounder for 9 and 41. The trade is equal value on the points chart. 41 would then be traded with one of our 5th rounders for Marshall.
Any word if the Bengals or Patriots would want to move up? They would be ideal trade partners to move down with our 14 and still get Charles Brown. Green Bay might take Brown at 23, as they employ a ZBS. I'd consider it fair for 3rd rounder added in.
If Eagles rumor has legs, I'd eschew the 3rd rounder for a 2nd rounder in 2011. Two 1st rounders and a 2nd rounder should be enough to move up for Locker.
I'd be happy with 21 and 24 in this draft.
My preferred draft:
Rd. 1 6 and 2011 2nd Rounder traded to Buffalo for pick 9 and pick 41 (2nd round
Rd. 1 9 CJ Spiller RB
Rd. 1 14 traded to Cincinatti for pick 21 and pick 85 (3rd round)
Rd. 1 21 Charles Brown LT (USC)
Rd. 2 41 traded to Denver Broncos along with pick 105 for Brandon Marshall
Rd. 2 60 Lamarr Houston or Geno Atkins DT
Rd. 3 85 Kevin Thomas CB (USC)or Riley Cooper WR
Rd. 4 128 Mitch Petrus or Mike Johnson OG, Daniel Te'o-Nesheim DE
Rd. 5 133 Myron Lewis FS
Rd. 5 140 Nick Howell OG (USC)
Rd. 6 177 Nolan Carroll CB or Harry Coleman SS
Rd. 7 214 Chris Brown RB
Rd. 7 246 Kenny Alfred C
I don't think we need to get a DE, necessarily. If we plan on getting someone like Geno Atkins or Lamarr Houston they can play some end, with Curry playing up on the line like a DE.
I especially like Lamarr Houston.
I like Crezdon Butler CB from Clemson late or as a udfa.
Hey did you see on Bleacher Report that Mel Kiper says that it is almost a lock that the Seahawks won't take Clausen. My prayers have been answered. The only thing that I can see that would make me happy is some way some how McCoy falls to us at 6 if that doesn't happen tread down and get as many picks as you can.
Micah - I can't see the Bills/Clausen fit. I don't think it will happen. I also want to temper that the Philly thing is just something someone thought up on Bleacher Report. It's not a legitimate rumor.
I don't think the Bills are standing pat with their 3 QBs, and do think they will draft a QB with either their first pick, or pick 41.
Any ideas on whether cincinnati or NE would want to trade up?
I expect Buffalo to draft a QB, just not Clausen. Chan Gailey experimented a lot with the spread at KC with Tyler Thigpen. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they make a bold move for Tebow. They have other options, they might trade for Thigpen if it doesn't work out. Buffalo might trade back into R1 to get Tebow.
Cincy - I can't see why they'd make a trade up but I wouldn't rule it out. New England hardly ever trade up. They get full use of their draft picks - more likely to move down.
Rumor has it Cincy wants Pierre-Paul. If he is around at 14 we may be in business.
how can anyone take your mock seriously when you have bulaga going 17, when he's definitely going top 10, probably 5. come on, you have to do better than this. mcclain going 5??
Why is Bulaga definitely a top ten pick? He's a short armed tackle that hasn't got much upside as a blind side blocker. He might be exclusively a right tackle at the next level. I believe Mel Kiper has him going to SF. Charlie Casserly has voiced serious concerns that Bulaga is being over rated in a lot of places. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that he falls to #17. I remember a few mocks being absolutely sure Jimmy Clausen was going first overall. For weeks people have been saying Okung was a can't miss prospect and now they're saying he won't be the first tackle taken.
With regard to McClain, he's better than most people are saying, he fills a big need and how many people expected KC to draft Tyson Jackson last year? They'll improve their team according to their board and scheme.
Rob, I'm having a tough time buying the Williams chatter. A few months ago you wrote that Trent Williams was a poor fit for the ZBS:
"I also kept an eye on OU left tackle Trent Williams... before he also went off injured. He's not a good match for Seattle's zone blocking scheme and I think it's fair to write him off any wish list. He looks very heavy, his footwork is poor and he relies on his superior size in protection. He will have some value to teams who favor bigger blockers but Seattle want nimble, athletic guys. That isn't Williams. I have to believe he's better suited to playing right tackle in the pro's if not guard. His run blocking looked quite good."
http://seahawksdraft.blogspot.com/2009/10/draft-thoughts-on-oklahoma-vs-texas.html
As for Eric Berry, he's a great player for sure and I can buy the Kiffin connection. But Berry at 6 is tough to swallow economically. Rob Rang pointed out that if you draft Eric Berry at 6 he'll be making more than the franchise tag value for a safety. That's why economics dictates drafting QB, OT, or DL early.
I'm also a little suspicious because Williams (and to a slightly lesser extent Berry) are being tied to Seattle in a lot of different places and I can't figure it out. In the past, smokescreens have been built on specific quotes by prominent front-office guys (for example, when Holmgren flatout lied to Dr. Z about the Seahawks disinterest in Jerramy Stevens), or through fake-out visits or scouting. Perhaps the Seahawks are using a "viral marketing" type guerrilla disinformation campaign? People have got really sophisticated about manipulating internet discussion forums to build buzz and plant messages. I can't believe somebody out there isn't using these well-tested techniques to manipulate the draft. Just a paranoid thought...
From a Mel Kiper conference call yesterday:
"Kiper said that Georgia Tech safety Morgan Burnett likely to go to Seahawks in the second round."
http://twitter.com/RavensInsider/status/11764104413
Steve - I've been up front that when I watched Williams he seemed clumsy, struggling to adjust to the blind side and I was unimpressed. It was a shock to me, and many others I imagine, when he turned up at Indianapolis and ran such a good forty time and in all fairness - did a great overall work out. I'm still not convinced he's a great fit at left tackle, let alone in any scheme. He has power, he looked bigger during the season than he did in Indy. I don't think he coped well against standard outside rushers - not elite college guys. But it's up to me to do research again and hit the tape which I will do on Williams. But alas, this isn't me making the pick and if Alex Gibbs thinks he's good enough for Seattle my opinion is redundant.
I think everyone knows I wouldn't take Berry 6th overall. Again, though, it's not my choice. I said early on that I didn't think #6 was a great place to be because the difference in talent isnt much different at #20.
Actually, the Bucs went to see Spievey but I think this is too high for him.If Saffold were there at 42 they'd take him.Or Jordan Shipley.
Mike - I think it's way too early for Shipley. He'll be there in round three for sure. If they value corner as a need, they have to dip into round two with one of those picks. There will be a huge rush on corners between 20-45. Not many options after round two.
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