Wednesday, 28 January 2009

Wednesday linkage

Chris Sullivan examines which wide receivers have been taken in the first round over the last few years. He breaks down the busts, the success stories and those that are still undecided.

Mike Sando adds to the debate in his mailbag section. He looks at the success of drafting receivers in the top five over the last few years and suggests it might be difficult for the Seahawks to trade down from the fourth overall pick.

Pete Prisco looks at an interesting scenario - what if the Cardinals had selected running back Adrian Peterson instead of offensive tackle Levi Brown in 2007?

William P Tomisser makes a case for drafting Ohio State corner back Malcolm Jenkins and discusses Seattle's frailties in pass defense.

Chad Reuter lists some prospects to keep an eye on at the Texas vs Nation all star game. He also suggests Chase Patton (QB, Missouri) could be the next Matt Cassel.

Todd McShay discusses his top five quarter backs. He ranks Mark Sanchez ahead of Matt Stafford and wasn't impressed with the crop of seniors at the Senior Bowl. McShay also reports on whose stock has gone up or down over the last week.

Matt McGuire writes about the 'mock draft myth'.

Aaron Weinburg from Next Season Sports looks at the difference between drafting an elite wide receiver or a dominant offensive tackle.


Peter said...

Isn't it Chase Daniel the QB from Missouri?

Rob Staton said...

Suprisingly there are two quarter backs called 'Chase' in Missouri. Chase Daniel is the starter and Chase Patton is the backup. The article by Chad Reuter compares Patton to Cassel because both were backups at college level, since then Cassel has gone on to start for the Patriots.

Chris (Seattle) said...

Hopefully he is taking into account that Cassel was backing up great QBs his whole career where as Patton was backing up a very average QB in Chase Daniel. Personally I think Chase Daniel is not worth a draft pick in the first 5 rounds. His decision making is awful. Anyways, wanted to ask you Rob if you think Malcolm Jenkins is worth taking with the 4th pick? It seems like we have used a lot of high picks lately on CBs with Jennings and Wilson, why would we use another? Shouldn't we use this pick to take the best overall player (which most think is Crabtree)? I honestly don't see anyone else worth of the 4th overall pick (unless Jason Smith is as good as advertised). Who do you think is worth that pick talent wise (assuming they end up being the player everyone expects them to be)?

Rob Staton said...

Hi Chris. I would be hesitant to draft Jenkins as high as the fourth pick for two reasons. First of all, the Seahawks have invested a lot at the corner back position. Aside from spending early picks on Kelly Jennins and Josh Wilson, the team signed up Marcus Trufant to a long term deal last year. By spending a lot of money and another high pick on Jenkins you are essentially cutting your ties with Jennings and reducing Wilson's role considerably. Having spent the picks, I think you have to give those guys more of a chance. I am not ready to write them off just yet.

Secondly, there are big concerns about Jenkins recovery speed. For the Buckeye's he regularly pushed up to the LOS and made big open field tackles. He is a tenacious tackler and would have some value in that sense, but he is not a ball hawk and I would have big reservations if he can keep with faster NFL receivers. On deep routes, I envisage he may be left behind. Good receivers will also find ways to get open against him and I'm not sure he can keep up and react. If I'm taking a corner back that early for me he has to have that speed. He might be bigger than Josh Wilson and Kelly Jennings, but it doesn't necessarilly mean he is the answer to the Seahawks short comings against top passing teams.

With the fourth pick I think there are a number of options. Crabtree is top of a lot of big boards and it would be to Seattle's great benefit if he is still there with the fourth pick. I am higher on both Stafford and Sanchez than some, from a pure talent point of view I think both can be a success in the NFL. Aaron Curry is a dominant linebacker who a team can build it's defense around. The offensive tackles get a lot of attention and it is a deep draft for LT's but I'm not sure there's one 'stand out'. I'm sure the team will have an idea who they rate the highest and whoever that is, taking them fourth overall is an investment in the future so even if it's a slight reach the potential benefits are large.

As a couple of wild card options, I really like the running back Knowshon Moreno. It would be a bit of a reach for him but he is a true triple threat back as a runner, blocker and receiver. He has a great attitude and loves the game, he always gives 100%. He has a vibrant character and would be a playmaker for this team. A lot of people would be suprised at this pick because of the money involved and the fact it's a reach, but I wouldn't have a problem if they went in that direction.

I also think Everette Brown will see his stock rise considerably over the next few weeks. He's more of a 3-4 DE/LB hybrid but could bulk up to be a pure 4-3 DE. He'd be a project with big upside.

Anonymous said...

I completely agree with you Rob. Crabtree presents the most value. None of the OTs in this draft really strike me as the "next great LT". If Crabtree is gone, which I think is becoming a greater possibility, I would much rather see us go with Stafford, Sanchez, or Moreno. Yes, this looks like the sexy pick, but I think there has to be a balance between risk and reward. I don't want to make a huge risk, but at the same time I don't want to settle for a guy who won't fail, but will never become a difference maker. I think Sanchez and Stafford have huge upsides and great careers ahead of them if put in the right situation. Both would benefit greatly in our system and would be given the best opportunity to reach maximum potential not having to come in and be a savior to a team and city.

Chris (Seattle) said...

Rob, kind of shocked you would be so high on Moreno. I always think a RB isn't worth it that high unless he is of LT, Barry Sanders caliber (which I don't believe Moreno is). But, I certainly could be wrong. Curry seems a waste when we have Lofa and Peterson and should resign Hill, although I agree that on a talent level he is worth the pick. Sanchez's knee and lack of reps really concerns me to be honest. Stafford seems like Jay Cutler could be his ceiling, rather than say, Brett Favre. Seems beyond Crabtree I really don't like anyone else at the 4th spot (unless one of the LT's seperates himself). Hopefully he's still there and we get him, or we can trade down.

Anonymous said...

Hey Rob,

I agree that crabtree is the safest pick, but if he is taken. I know it might be difficult but I would like to trade back for Malcolm Jenkins as a safety, I really think he could make that switch work. I was just wondering on where you stand on Malcolm to safety if crabtree is unavailable. Thanks! Keep up the good work!

Rob Staton said...

I agree with you Chris, I wouldn't put Moreno on a plateau with LT2 or Barry Sanders. But I put him down as a 'wild card' because I do think he's got something that will translate well in the NFL. He's very talented, he loves football. He wants to improve every time he takes the field and his skill set makes him very effective as a runner, receiver and blocker. He hasn't got elite breakaway speed and there are question marks about his size but I just think Moreno is the kind of guy who will always suprise people, he'll play above his ceiling. It would be a reach with the fourth pick but I genuinly think he has top 15 talent. Like I said before, it's a wild card but stranger things have happened.

Hi Anonymous, thanks for the positive feedback. I think Jenkins will eventually be moved to safety, there's a real possibility of that happening. The things he does well translate to the safety position, his weaknesses such as a lack of recovery speed could make him a liability in the NFL at corner back. Would I take him in the top ten to play safety? Probably not. Even if his skill set translates well to the position it's still a big gamble because he didn't play that position in college. It's a project work in progress and when you're picking that high and spending that much money, I want someone who is going to serve up very little risk.