Wednesday, 25 February 2009

Wednesday links

Pat Kirwan has posted his first mock draft following the combine. He thinks Jason Smith and Euegene Monroe will go number 1 & 2 in the draft, with the Seahawks selecting Michael Crabtree with the fourth overall pick.

Don Banks has published an updated mock draft. He thinks Aaron Curry will go first overall to Detroit, with the two offensive tackles (Jason Smith & Eugene Monroe) following. Seattle take Michael Crabtree.

Peter King says Matt Stafford had a meeting with New Orleans Saints quarter back Drew Brees recently, who had some good advice for the young Georgia prospect. "I guess first I told him it's not a question of whether he'll face adversity. He'll definitely have it." - Drew Brees.

Chris Steuber is hosting a live draft forum today. Things kick off at 4:30 pm EST. Steuber also lists his 'risers and fallers' from the combine, with the defensive prospects here and the offensive guys here.

Matt McGuire analyses Maryland wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. He ran a 4.30 in the forty yard dash on Sunday, but statistically wasn't amongst the top 100 receivers in college during 2008. McGuire doesn't think he'll break into the top 20.

Vic Carucci looks at Malcolm Jenkins' situation as he faces a switch to safety. Carucci points out that scouts already had concerns with his deep speed having watched game tape and those fears were confirmed at the combine. I dropped Jenkins down my mock draft today because teams won't invest big money in a corner who doesn't have good speed. He's also a project at safety.

John Gruden and Charlie Casserly review the combine and what impressed them during work outs. They run through the guys who didn't work out because of injury - namely Michael Crabtree.

John Morgan looks at some of the measurements from the combine. He has an interesting image to portray the significance of two tenths of a second in a 40 yard dash.


Anonymous said...

Say NO! to Crabtree please, please, please..

Chris (Seattle) said...

Rob, I'm sure you saw today that the Bucs released Derrick Brooks, Warrick Dunn, and Joey Galloway. Given Ruskell's ties to this players, do you see any of them coming to Seattle? I understand we don't have any kind of need at LB, so I'll eliminate Brooks. But, I think we could use either Dunn or Galloway. There's obvious history with Galloway in Seattle, and even though he's up there in age, we could use him as a situational deep threat, just to keep defenses honest. Dunn could provide insurance in case Julius Jones gets too comfortable and/or Forsett doesn't progress as hoped.

PS: Say YES! to Crabtree please, please, please. Can't get a more perfect fit of "Best Available Player" and "Team Need." I would have been more worried about the odd combine showing if he wasn't being mentored by Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders. This is a tough time for some very young people. They are at the biggest transition of their lives and have a ton of people in each ear giving them advice (most of which is probably poor), but with those two hall of famers watching over him, he'll be just fine (see Desean Jackson, a guy I wanted hawks to take in 1st round last year. Everyone questioned his "character" and "work ethic." With Rice's tutoring, he had a great rookie year and would have been perfect for us). Let's not miss out again on a gamebreaking WR that can completely change the game for our offense in so many ways.

Rob Staton said...

Some interesting points there Chris. With regards to the guys released by Tampa Bay, I would be surprised if any land in Seattle. Obviously Brooks is unlikely because Seattle are tied up at linebacker. I'm not sure we'd really see any benefit from an ageing Galloway coming off an injury dominated 2008. If he lands with a team, it will likely be someone who wants a situational deep threat for a QB with a big arm. Dunn is perhaps the most likely, he's a great character guy and actually put up some good numbers last year. It depends what the plan is to use Julius Jones and TJ Duckett, whether they want to draft a RB and whether they wish to try and re-sign Mo Morris and Leonard Weaver.

With regards to Crabtree, he is being tutored by exactly the right people. Rice is an intelligent man who has 'been there and done it'. He will no doubt be able to offer Crabtree some great advice not just on the field, but off it too. Sanders is another ex-pro who has had a very succesful career. He offers the alternative to Rice, what Crabtree needs to do coming up against the games top defensive backs. It was telling that Sanders said regarding surgery yesterday, "He won't be running (at his pro-day) if I have anything to do with it."

The debate on who Seattle should select 4th overall really polarises opinion amongst the fan base. My personal opinion is to try and keep an open mind and accept that the team can go in different ways, and to try and take a positive from each. If the team draft Crabtree - you get a much needed play maker who's production was insane at college. If you take an offensive tackle - you've locked up a key position for years to come. If you take a QB - likewise long term security at the most important position in football. If you invest too much hope into one prospect (or 'not' wanting a certain prospect as seen above) you are likely to be dissapointed.

Anonymous said...

What is the drop off from Crabtree and a WR that could be had in say round 2 or 3??

Compare that to picking a OT or even DL in the 4th spot and the drop off for these picks in the later rounds?

Crabtree reminds me of Charles Rogers and Mike Williams, unstoppable in college but total busts in the NFL..

Rob Staton said...

Hi annonymous,

I would say coming into the draft there's a significant drop off from Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin to the next group of receivers. However, that doesn't necessarily mean Crabtree will have the best pro career.. in the same way Tom Brady is a future Hall of Famer as a 6th round pick and JaMarcus Russell has done nothing in Oakland as a number one pick.

Prospects like Hakeem Nicks, Percy Harvin, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Kenny Britt could all go in the back end of the first. The team needs to decide whether it will invest a high pick into Michael Crabtree and get the highest rated play maker in the draft, or whether they want to add to the group of WR's later on. Either way, I feel the position has to be addressed.

I will say two things for the comparisons you make to Charles Rogers and Mike Williams. Firstly, both those guys were drafted by Matt Millen. Secondly, they were drafted to play for the Detroit Lions - a franchise that has been a mess for a while now. Crabtree would be coming into a team that already has a veteran, pro bowl quarter back. It has high character veterans and up until last year, had consistently dominated it's division. Sometimes where a prospect goes heavily affects their ability to succeed in the NFL.

I also believe Crabtree is a better character than both Rogers and Williams. Keyshawn Johnson spoke a few weeks ago saying they were more interested in the 'lifestyle' of an NFL star. I see a greater determination in Michael Crabtree. He wants to be amongst the best receivers in the NFL. That counts for a lot.

Finally, in looking at the OT and DL talent - I am quite sure the team would like the option of a stud defensive linemen. Unfortunately, there isn't a Chris Long or a Glenn Dorsey this year. I would suggest there aren't any defensive linemen suited to the 4-3 that will go in the top 10. However, you could get good value later on with a guy like Peria Jerry, Evander 'Ziggy' Hood or Paul Kruger.

There will be a premium on offensive tackles and I imagine the top guys will all be gone by the time the Seahawks pick in round two. If they want an OT, they have to use the 4th overall pick. However, the team expect Walter Jones back and have Sean Locklear on a big contract. By giving a rookie $60M you're putting a lot of money into the position, especially when you're using a zone blocking scheme that traditionally hasn't relied on highly drafted linemen. Unless the team see any of the tackles as 'can't miss' I wouldn't be surprised if they looked elsewhere.