Wednesday, 21 April 2010

Final 2010 NFL Mock Draft

By Rob Staton
The Draft is tomorrow and I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has visited the blog, contributed and helped continue it's development. It's a pleasure to write and that's mainly down to you guys who visit and join in the debate. I also want to thank everyone who has linked to this blog throughout the year and helped spread the word. Finally, I want to thank Kyle Rota and Kip Earlywine who have both been great to work with and have consistently produced material of the highest quality.

Having projected a number of different solutions for the draft, it seems somewhat strange to now be focusing on one true prediction. It's impossible to guess every pick and I will miss more than I hit on this final mock. Still, let me know what you think and by tomorrow we'll know how accurate (or inaccurate) some of the things we discussed this year were. Here is my final, first round mock draft.


Round One



#1 St. Louis: Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma)
He won't sign a contract like Matt Stafford, but Bradford will be the first overall pick.




#2 Detroit: Ndamukong Suh (DT, Nebraska)
I maintained from day one that this pick would be one of the two defensive tackles. Suh is a great pick up as the Lions look to rebuild their defense.




#3 Tampa Bay: Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma)
The Buccs will settle for McCoy if Suh's off the board. This fills a huge need in Tampa Bay.




#4 Washington: Trent Williams (OT, Oklahoma)
I still think this pick could be Anthony Davis. I've long felt that Okung was over rated and wouldn't go as high as some believe. At this stage, it would be a surprise if Williams isn't taken here.




#5 Kansas City: Rolando McClain (LB, Alabama)
Nobody thought Tyson Jackson would go third overall this time last year. McClain is the 'coach on the field' Kansas City wants and he fills a huge hole at inside linebacker. The Chiefs would like to move down and make a pick like this with a lesser cost.




#6 Seattle: Eric Berry (S, Tennessee)
With Trent Williams expected to go at #4, this appears to be an obvious choice for the Seahawks. In the midst of a clear out and rebuild, Pete Carroll will bank on Berry being part of the future revolution as his cornerback/safety hybrid.




#7 Cleveland: Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Browns traded sack leader Kamerion Wimbley. Morgan could be BPA and some scouts think he can work in a 3-4 or 4-3 scheme. C.J. Spiller or Joe Haden could be in contention here too.




#8 Oakland: Mike Iupati (OG, Idaho)
The Raiders never do anything by the book, so it makes little sense to suggest they will here. Iupati to Oakland is gaining a lot of momentum. Would they really take him ahead of Okung, Bulaga and Brown?




#9 Buffalo: Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State)
When I watched Okung, I didn't see a dominant force. Kyle Rota's report is a must read. However, I have to appreciate that others rank him higher and this could keep him in the top ten.




#10 Jacksonville: C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson)
The Jags will probably do everything they can to trade down. However, if no offer is forthcoming they have a big choice. They want to improve their secondary, so Haden and Thomas make sense. However, they also like flashy offensive guys.




#11 Denver: Sergio Kindle (OLB, Texas)
Kindle fits the system Denver use and there's a chance he goes this early. The Broncos are making big moves on defense. They are another team who would probably love to move down.




#12 Miami: Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee)
The Dolphins re-signed Jason Ferguson, but he's suspended for the first half of the season. He's also getting up in years, so adding Williams to play the valuable nose tackle position makes sense.




#13 San Francisco: Jimmy Clausen (QB, Notre Dame)
The Niners are not sold on their QB situation - how else do you describe the current battle between Alex Smith and David Carr? They're aware that it could hold back what is otherwise a very solid roster. They might see Clausen as the answer.




#14 Seattle: Charles Brown (OT, USC)
The Seahawks want to trade this pick. If they don't get the offer they're looking for, they will choose between the three remaining offensive tackles: Bryan Bulaga, Anthony Davis and Charles Brown. The USC lineman is a perfect scheme fit, but don't rule out the other two.




#15 New York Giants: Joe Haden (CB, Florida)
If Haden makes it this far, the Giants will feel pretty pleased with themselves. New York sits in a wonderful position with many options and brilliant value.




#16 Tennessee: Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, USF)
Pierre-Paul is raw but he has unlimited upside and teams will look at him as someone they can coach into greatness. Tennessee aren't afraid to gamble on upside.




#17 San Francisco: Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa)
It wouldn't surprise me if Bulaga lasted this long. The Niners want a right tackle though and Bulaga fits the bill.




#18 Pittsburgh: Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State)
The Steelers are touted to draft offensive lineman every year. Bryan Bulaga and Maurkice Pouncey will be tempting. However, they also need a cornerback.




#19 Atlanta: Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech)
Receiver isn't a need for Atlanta, but the Falcons will consider drafting another big target for Matt Ryan.




#20 Houston: Earl Thomas (S, Texas)
I could see a team trading up to get Thomas, but if he makes it this far - it's a nice pick for Houston.




#21 Cincinnati: Everson Griffen (DE, USC)
The Bengals do have needs on the defensive line and they like USC prospects.




#22 New England: Jared Odrick (DT, Penn State)
The Patriots are in the process of major changes on their defensive line. Drafting the versatile Odrick gives New England some options long term.




#23 Green Bay: Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama)
The Packers will consider adding a cornerback at some stage and Jackson might be the best available here.




#24 Phildadelphia: Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida)
I think the Eagles are one of the teams who would like to move up. Alternative options could be at cornerback and defensive end.




#25 Baltimore: Devin McCourty (CB, Rutgers)
The Ravens would find some value in the under rated McCourty, who put on a show at the combine.




#26 Arizona: Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers)
Davis could go in the top ten, he has the ability. His non-existent work ethic concerns a lot of teams though. Arizona aren't afraid of a challenge.




#27 Dallas: Taylor Mays (S, USC)
The Cowboys moved on Ken Hamlin creating a space at the strong safety position. Mays could be an option, but the Cowboys are another team who could move around.




#28 San Diego: Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)

I think this is too high for Mathews, but if the Chargers don't want to risk him making it to #40, they might take him here. There are many other directions they could go.




#29 New York Jets: Linval Joseph (DT, East Carolina)
Joseph is a late riser, but a lot of people are talking about him potentially making the first round. Don't be surprised if it happens. Jerry Hughes is an alternative.




#30 Minnesota: Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
Would Bryant fall this far? I'm not 100% and a team could move up to get him in the teens. The Vikings have a good enough all round roster and can easily justify a selection like this. It's just BPA and would be tremendous value for a star studded team.




#31 Indianapolis: Brandon Graham (DE, Michigan)

Graham is a good pass rusher, but his lack of size might put off some teams. The Colts like smaller, faster lineman and this would make some sense.




#32 New Orleans: Sean Weatherspoon (LB, Missouri)
I was never blown away watching tape of Weatherspoon from 2009 and some teams will be put off by his talkative personality.

Just missed the cut: Jahvid Best (RB, California), Chris Cook (CB, Virginia), Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State), Jerry Hughes (OLB, TCU), Carlos Dunlap (DE, Florida), Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma), Roger Saffold (OT, Indiana), Tim Tebow (QB, Florida).

25 comments:

John said...

I hope we get Berry! I will jump for joy if this happens!

Anonymous said...

Rob - excellent mock. I like it better than the Kipers and Walters of the world! As you say, #14 could be either Brown or Bulaga, and until yesterday I thought it would be Brown, but on taking a second look at Bulaga, I believe he has Alex Gibbs written all over him. His thyroid illness is a non-issue, it was only a virus. He has a little more of the nastiness and savvy that Gibbs likes, and is perfectly schooled in the zone scheme, and can start from day one, although Brown has many of the same attributes.

Matthew Baldwin said...

Rob,

Can you explain the Spiller to JAX at 10 rationale? I personally don't see it.

JAX only had 14 sacks all year, 27th against the pass and gave up 41 points to an anemic SEA team.

They were 10th in the NFL rushing last year. It hardly seems like a priority. And if they're thinking Tebow in the 2nd, they have to address DE/DB in the 1st.

Thoughts?

CLanterman said...

I wouldn't be ecstatic about this draft, but I'd be satisfied with it.

I've heard rumors that Saffold won't get past the Colts. Thoughts on this?
Also, I think Brandon Graham (who you have the Colts taking) is highly underrated.

Anonymous said...

Rob,

Good mock.

But im guessing we take Morgan at 6. Although I agree with the Brown pick at 14.


Nick

Rob Staton said...

Matt - The Jaguars have made some moves to improve their pass rush and aren't counting out Harvey just yet. With Morgan off the board anyway, they would only really be looking at JPP.

I'm led to believe they were looking to rebuild their secondary so that is an option. I also think they'll do everything to trade down, including losing value, so it might be a moot point anyway.

However - some teams are going to fall in love with Spiller. Some places have been speculating that despite having a lot invested in MJD, they'll still entertain the prospect of drafting Spiller and that they're really high on him. The might not even stay put at #10, like I said. If they do, they'll take whoever is top of their board and it might be Spiller.

Anonymous said...

Rob,

You and the guys run a GREAT site. Thanks for all the insight leading up to the big day.

You should do a mock draft competition to stir up some interest. Maybe receive completed mocks by e-mail and give the winner a free Hawks shirt?

Rob Staton said...

CLanterman - I wanted to put Saffold in round one but couldn't find a home. I actually think Graham is over rated. There will be games in the NFL were he just gets flat out dominated. I'm comfortable putting him at the bottom of round one and I think mocks that have him in the top 15 are over rating Graham. Still - I could be proven wrong, we'll see tomorrow.

Rob Staton said...

Annonymous - I contemplated a mock competition, but I simply didn't have the time to arrange it. As an example, being based in the UK I'll be watching the first round tomorrow live from 12:30-4:00 am. I have to be in the studio I work at for 6:00am to read out the morning sport bulletins and I'm supposed to be at work until 5:30pm. I won't have slept for the best part of 40 hours, and then it'll be a quick sleep on Friday night before a 3-4 hours drive Saturday morning to report on a soccer game. Sunday - I'm just going to pass out.

Darnell said...

An Eric Berry and Charles Brown combo is exactly what I want to see. Hopefully we can move down a bit to get Brown, but if not I'm cool with Brown at 14 and prefer him over Bulaga,Davis,Campbell.

I see the Chiefs doing something similar to what they did last year and in that Rolando McClain/Dan Williams/Sergio Kindle makes a lot sense. Pioli is much bigger on fit than he is on value - he passed up the best prospects in last years draft in Aaron Curry because Curry didn't fit the 3-4. But he was willing to reach into the 20s to grab Tyson Jackson 3rd overall just because Jackson fit as a 3-4 DE.

Berry doesn't help them build up that 3-4 front 7 the way McClain,D Williams or Kindle does, I think Pioli really wants to build that front 7. And if anyone reaches on Bulaga it'll be Pioli because of the Ferentz connection.

Berry to the Hawks would be a dream to me. He's been my favorite prospect since he was a freshman CB. An automatic jersey buy for me.

Savage said...

Nice work Rob. I think this is the most ikely scenario for the Hawks picks. Although, at #14 they could do so many different things.

To be honest, if Joe Haden falls to #14 I'd take him. Even though we wouldn't get a LT and everyone in Seattle would seemingly be pissed, Haden was by far the best corner in college last year and really shut down the likes of Julio Jones, AJ Green, Marty Gilyard and Brandon LaFell. I think on pure talent and football ability he is a Top 5 prospect in this draft and would be a steal at #14.

I'd take Berry at #6, Haden at #14, then trade #60 and a 4th to get back up to the top of the 2nd and get Best.

I believe in Gibbs ability to get a decent line together and get a suitable LT for a year. There are other ways to get lineman with spending a high pick.

Rob Staton said...

I think the Seahawks will do everything they can to shop the #14.

Anonymous said...

Rob,

What's the likelihood of Seattle trading Berry for Mays with a team like Dallas -- in exchange for one of Dallas's 2nd or 3rd round picks.

Thanks for all your work this year...I have enjoyed the site.

A-R-N-F said...

"You should do a mock draft competition to stir up some interest. Maybe receive completed mocks by e-mail and give the winner a free Hawks shirt?"

Or maybe even just an open thread tomorrow/today for people to post up predictions. Something simple would be fun... say 7 picks, each predicting one player the hawks take in each round
(with 2 1st round picks on account of there being no 3rd). Just for fun, of course, so that we have something to reflect on when Carroll takes Tebow and Mays in the first (I kid,I kid).

But seriously I gotta say thanks for all the work you guys have done this year. I think this is the only site I've ever followed where the atmosphere didn't self destruct when people go against the grain. Definitely looking forward to next year's mocks.

Rob Staton said...

Annonymous - I think there's almost no chance of that happening.

ARNF - nice idea. If people want to post their mocks in here feel free. You can post a full 32 picks if you want, or just what you think Seattle will do. I'll have a look through and give credit to the guy who gets closest.

Kelly said...

Oh Rob.

Mayock on NFL Network predicted Okung to the Hawks. Your worst nightmare! HAHA :)

How bumbed would you be if we ended up with Okung.

Rob Staton said...

Kelly - essentially, whoever the Seahawks select they'll get my full backing. I'm not a fan of Okung in the top ten and I don't think the Seahawks will draft him at #6, but we'll find out tomorrow. It wouldn't surprise me if Okung didn't go as high as a lot of people have been saying all these weeks, I've seen one other mock without Okung outside the top six - Mike Sando's.

Rob Staton said...

The pick I'm least comfortable with in this mock? Denver - Sergio Kindle. Just so sure they'll move down.

Anonymous said...

...Alex Gibbs has a history of building an offensive line with mid-round selections, but that will NOT be the case this year. Mid-round guys need at least a couple of years of development before they can start. The Seahawks must get a left tackle who can start from day one, and those can only be had in the first half of round one. All the top left tackles will be gone after Green Bay picks at #23, so the Seahawks really cannot trade down below the late teens. Even then, they risk that Brown and Bulaga will be gone, and Davis, though a real specimen, is only 20 and will not be ready to start. The Seahawks cannot let Bulaga and Brown get away, or the entire season is at risk. Better to select at #14 and be happy they got who they wanted.

Kelly said...

Anonymous-

As I started to read your post, I agreed with your comments about Alex Gibb has a history of building a line with mid round selections, but than you through me a curveball by saying that we NEED to pick one of top ones in the first 20 picks because we need one to be able to start day 1.

My question to you is Why? Why do we need to draft 1 OL man in the 1st round. First of all I don't see us competing for a playoff spot next year. Obviously we will try but the talent is not there. So picking someone that needs time to develop is an option. Secondly, 1 OL man is not gonna turn this team around. Even with arguably the best OL man ever "Walter Jones" the Seahawks could not do much without his counterpart Steve Huchinson. You throw ANY LT in there and they will suffer until a LT and G can work together and dominate that side of the field

Anonymous said...

Got to love this video. Especially when Berry is commanding that board room with all those other top prospects.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-draft/09000d5d817ad6f1/A-Berry-Busy-Day

Jon said...

I don't know how or why but every year I soak up all the info and analysis I can but I don't sit down and really think about what I would do until the last minute, but when do it all seems clear.

I don't know how this team doesn't pick Derrick Morgan at 6. He's the best all around 4-3 DE in this draft and will help a lot more than Berry could. A good Safety needs a good pass rush to do anything, adding a Safety(no matter how good) when the pass rush is dogshit, is pointless. And the way things are looking, Charles Brown or Anthony Davis should be there at #14 so the long overdue LT fire will be put out.

Matthew Baldwin said...

Rob,

Not sure JAX solved their lack of pass rush by adding the 30 yr old Aaron Kampman who's coming off an ACL.

Austin said...

Rob great job as always. Far and away the best site of its kind on the net. Looking forward to checking in after the draft as well. As for the Seahawks I think its going to be Berry at 6 and at 14 they go Morgan or a playmaker and I think they get their lineman later in the draft. So I'll go Berry/Bryant in round one assuming they can't trade down.

Donald Duck said...

Thanks for all of your effort for the 2010 mock draft.

Here is my best guess:

#6 Trent Williams
#14 Earl Thomas
# 60 Tyson Alualu

In any case, we need an OT, a S and a DE in the first three picks.