Monday, 20 April 2009

Chad Reuter's mock-by-numbers

Chad Reuter (NFL Draft Scout) has published an interesting mock draft for CBS Sportsline. The idea is that even the biggest expert is lucky to get even a handful of picks right in their mock draft. Why not create a mock based on theory - what positions are taken early, trends between teams and what's happened in previous drafts?

It brings up a few surprises. For example, Kansas City (deploying a new 3-4 defensive scheme) look for the important outside pass rush by selecting Texas' Brian Orakpo. Chris 'Beanie' Wells (whose stock has been as difficult to judge as anyone's) goes fifth overall to the Cleveland Browns. Whichever offensive lineman not drafted by St Louis second overall, falls out of the top ten.

What about Seattle? Michael Crabtree.

"T.J. Houshmandzadeh was a good free-agent signing, but he's 32 and the team also lost Bobby Engram. If the Seahawks have enough confidence in Housh, Deion Branch and Burleson, they could pick QB Mark Sanchez, Curry or an offensive tackle. The Jaguars could also trade into this spot if they want Crabtree." - Chad Reuter

Funnily enough, despite the different angle in this mock most of the results remain the same. As Reuter admits, "Despite the problem inherent with projecting picks without factoring team need, this write-up surprisingly aligns with many regular mock drafts on almost half of the selections. And several other picks are only one slot early or late from being what is being projected." This is especially true in Seattle's case. There are a number of options on the table but it's not entirely obvious which path they'll take.


Brandon said...

Jaguars will not trade up, you can take that to the bank

Mike said...

I think we will get the Jets 1st and 3rd, plus next years 1st.

Rob Staton said...

That would be a gamble for Seattle. That's a significant drop to #17 and may take them out of range to get the guys they really want in round one. They get the first next year, but that presents a gamble in itself as it could be a top 10 choice or #32. I would be surprised personally if the Jets make a significant move to get Mark Sanchez.