Thursday, 2 April 2009

Denver to trade up? Further analysis

In the aftermath of the Jay Cutler trade, the suggestions that Denver may look to trade up to find a replacement have already begun. There's no clear cut evidence which suggests Denver would be keen to move up and they might prefer to spend their two first round picks (12th and 18th overall) on rebuilding a poor defense which ranked 29th in the NFL last year. With Kyle Orton also added to the roster, Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels may be happy to let Orton fight it out with recent signing Chris Simms for the starting job.

However, Orton is set to enter free agency next year. He may be viewed as a stop gap option for now, with a view to drafting a long term replacement on April 25th who will take the reins in 2010. In a conversation with Charley Casserly and Charles Davis, Mike Mayock suggested Mark Sanchez was the best fit for McDaniels offense. He went further, stating the team should package their first round picks in order to move up. In a seperate segment for the NFL Network, Mayock again said the Broncos had to replace Cutler in the draft.

There is likely to be a lot of speculation between now and draft day about potential trades, which direction Denver will go and so on. If I had to give a prediction, I think the Broncos will go with Kyle Orton as their starter in 2009 and will use those two first round picks to build up their defense. As my article below suggests, a trade involving Seattle isn't impossible but at this stage it's still unlikely.

Got any thoughts on the draft? -


Anonymous said...

It's an interesting idea, however, I would say there is little to no chance that they trade 12 and 18 for #4 when they need to rebuild their defense. Not to mention, they can trade their 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder to the Browns and get Brady Quinn which makes more sense and is very realistic for a team trying to rebuild a defense all the while trying to get a QB.

It may add up on the trade value chart, but ultimately that chart means nothing when you factor in the money and human element to the situation. I think they will possibly see if Sanchez gets past the Jags, and if he does, they might make a move in front of the 49ers which would allow them to keep 18 and only give up another 2nd rounder instead of 12 and 18.

Mike said...


Assuming your scenario in which the Hawks swap their #4 for Denver's #12 and Denver's 2/3rd round pick, do you really see Seattle drafting Moreno? I understand that a lot of interest has been shown and that he appears to be a special talent. However, for so many years in the ZBS Denver has de-valued RBs. They traded away Portis, and plugged in guys like Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, etc. and had a solid running game nonetheless. So in installing a ZBS, do you think Seattle really believes it needs a top flight RB in this year's draft?

Big Joe said...

I agree the team needs in Denver, at least a few days ago, were all on the defensive side of the ball. However, what do you think the fans feel about the switch from Jay to Kyle at QB? I think they see it as a big drop off and the drama that the new coach played in to get them to this point. They need to make a big splash to get the smiles back on the fans.

If the talking heads are right, Sanchez is the only one of the top three rated QB's that would fit into the Denver system. Seattle sent a large amount of staff to USC's pro day. Sanchez would best fit into a WCO style like we play and TR has publicly stated we are" in the zone" to look for a new QB for the long term. Even if Detroit passes on Stafford, there is the possibility we would take Sanchez over him as we have the ability to sit him a year or two or three to develop like fellow USC QB C. Palmer. The point value chart is only a guide, but the 12th and 18th picks equal 2,100 points. I could see us trading our 4th overall and third round 68th overall, thats 1,800 and 250 for 2,150 points. In a perfect world we could even pick up their 5th round pick to make the point match closer, but that is too fine of detail for this time and place.

The bottom line is there are many dynamics that play into what a team will do to get fans into the stands and I think the odds of us trading down from 4th overall has gone from 2 percent to 50 50 at this time. Still lots of time left until draft day, but this is getting real interesting!

Rob Staton said...

Mike, you make a good point about the way Denver plugged guys into their ZBS and had success. I think that's one of the real benefits of the scheme. We also have to bare in mind the Seahawks have Duckett and Jones on the roster (plus Forsett) and they might feel RB is a bit of a luxury pick.

However, I have to believe Ruskell is high on Moreno. We've seen the pictures, but everything about Moreno is a 'Ruskell pick'. The character, the production, the school. The main reason I think the Seahawks would consider Moreno is not so much the scheme or the position, it's who Moreno is.

Big Joe - I think the Broncos fans are pretty mixed. Some are fuming that they've swapped Cutler for Orton, others are glad to see the back of Cutler's mood swings and they have four first round picks to rebuild the franchise in 09-10.

Having slept on the deal, I actually think the Broncos will come out of this better. Many would disagree. But it's one of those deals that right now - everyone is salivating over Cutler in a Bears outfit but they are still some way from being a legitimate threat in the playoffs. They still lack a good pass rush and won't get it in the draft now unless they get lucky in round two.

I think there were a lot of knee jerk reactions by some sections of the media after this trade was revealed. 'Oh they have to get Sanchez'. I don't think they do. Orton is a solid if unspectacular QB. McDaniels will plug him into his system and although you wont see those 400 yard 3TD performances from gun slinger Cutler, you'll get an efficient QB.

I expect them to use the two first rounders rebuilding the front of their defense. This could mean B.J. Raji or Tyson Jackson 12th overall, and then Rey Maualuga with the 18th pick.

I wouldn't be surprised if in two years time the Broncos are in a healthier position than the Bears. Time will tell. I don't think they 'have' to get Sanchez though and I expect them to stay put.