Friday, 24 April 2009

My final two round mock draft

1 Detroit Lions - Matt Stafford (QB, Georgia)
This pick makes sense for Detroit. They have a blank canvass and need to begin a new era of Lions football with a franchise quarter back on the roster. Stafford is talented enough to justify the big contract.

2 St Louis Rams - Jason Smith (OT, Baylor)
This pick is obvious to me. Steve Spagnuolo wants to mould his Rams offense to mimic the Giants. That means a dominant ground game. Smith has the nasty edge and determination to get into the second level which will make life easier for Steven Jackson.

3 Kansas City Chiefs - Tyson Jackson (DE, LSU)
This is the popular pick right now. Kansas City will do their best to move down, but if a trade never materializes they have to decide between a solid scheme fit like Jackson, compared to Aaron Curry and Michael Crabtree.

4 Seattle Seahawks - Michael Crabtree (WR, Texas Tech)
It comes down to Aaron Curry, Mark Sanchez and Michael Crabtree. Curry fits Tim Ruskell's drafting criteria, but is he enough of a playmaker to justify the #4 pick? Crabtree offers the dynamic playmaking weapon they need on offense. With a much improved passing game in 2009, this could take pressure off the offensive line and open up the running game - providing the kind of balance Greg Knapp craves.

5 Cleveland Browns - Aaron Curry (LB, Wake Forest)
There's been a lot of talk about Sanchez going here and that remains a possibility if the Browns are truly looking for a new quarter back. If the Browns think Curry can make a big contribution to their 3-4 defense then he could be off the board here, pushing Sanchez closer to the Redskins.

Click here to see the rest of the picks.

6 Cincinnati Bengals - Eugene Monroe
The Bengals priority has to be pass protection and for that reason, I think they'll take Eugene Monroe ahead of Andre Smith. Monroe has limitations, but he can protect Carson Palmer better than anyone else in this draft. Smith's a better run blocker but will he ever even play left tackle?

7 Oakland Raiders - B.J. Raji (DT, Boston College)
A lot of reports say the Raiders will take a receiver. Jeremy Maclin would make some sense, but think Darrius Heyward-Bey reminds me too much of Troy Williamson (which only half puts me off suggesting Al Davis will draft him). Oakland's run defense is so poor, they need someone like Raji.

8 Jacksonville Jaguars - Mark Sanchez (QB, USC)

I can see two possibilities here. Either Jacksonville will take Sanchez, seeing value after he drops out of the top five picks. Alternatively, this could be a place where a team like Washington makes their move. I don't think he'll make it out of the top eight picks and this is a worst case scenario for Sanchez, who won't fall far on Saturday.

9 Green Bay Packers - Andre Smith (OT, Alabama)

This could be another spot for a potential trade if Mark Sanchez remains on the board. If he goes at #8 (whether the Jaguars or someone else takes him) they'll almost certainly stay put and take Andre Smith.

10 San Francisco 49ers - Michael Oher (OT, Ole Miss)
The 49ers could use a pass rush and might seriously consider Brian Orakpo here. On the other hand, getting a solid book end for Joe Staley would be a sensible choice too. Oher switches off too much to be a great left tackle, but at right tackle he can be one of the best in the business - the physical tools are all there.

11 Buffalo Bills - Brian Orakpo (DE, Texas)
The Bills biggest need is to find a compliment to Aaron Schobel. Orakpo's stock is one of the most difficult to judge. He could be a top ten pick, or he could slide into the teens. Buffalo won't find a quality defensive end in round two, so taking one here could be their choice.

12 Denver Broncos - Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia)
This ones a hunch. Top 3-4 defensive prospects are off the board and this could force the Broncos to take BPA. Denver have a stable of running backs, but none stand out. Moreno can take pressure away from Kyle Orton the same way Matt Forte did in Chicago.

13 Washington Redskins - Brian Cushing (OLB, USC)
It wouldn't surprise me if someone else owned pick #13 on Saturday, with Washington trading up to get Mark Sanchez. Whilst other teams would appreciate the cheaper, value options on offer here, I think the 'Skins are determined to make a splash. They only have four tradeable picks so lack ammunition, which could force them to take Brian Cushing.

14 New Orleans Saints - Chris Wells (RB, Ohio State)
The Saints only have four picks and if they can't move back, they might go defense. However, I think they could take Beanie Wells here. Putting him alongside Reggie Bush eases the durability concerns, whilst also offering an intriguing double edged sword at running back to compliment the excellent Drew Brees.

15 Houston Texans - Malcolm Jenkins (CB, Ohio State)
I've heard strong suggestions this pick could be Clay Matthews and the Texans might look to trade down, as they did last year, to get the guy they want at a value position. Jenkins also makes sense here and despite concerns about his recovery speed, is still an excellent addition.

16 San Diego Chargers - Jeremy Maclin (WR, Missouri)
Chris Chambers is in a contract year and will be 31, whilst Vincent Jackson was recently arrested for DUI. Wide receiver isn't the greatest need for San Diego, but Maclin could be too good to pass.

17 New York Jets - Josh Freeman (QB, Kansas State)
I'm not 100% sold that Freeman goes here. The Jets situation at quarter back leads me to think they'll consider taking Freeman, but would anyone be surprised if they went in another direction, including trading for either Brady Quinn or Jason Campbell?

18 Denver Broncos - Larry English (DE/OLB, Northern Illinois)
Switching to a 3-4 defense, the Broncos need to find an outside pass rush. Aaron Maybin could be in the frame, but English's stock is high heading into draft weekend. Rey Maualuga could be another option, but there are concerns about his ability to play three downs.

19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Robert Ayers (DE, Tennessee)
Pairing Ayers with Gaines Adams would give Raheem Morris a great pass rush tandem, but they may also look at Everette Brown, Peria Jerry or Michael Johnson. The Tennessee defensive end appears set for an appearance in the top twenty.

20 Detroit Lions - Peria Jerry (DT, Ole Miss)
The Lions traded Cory Redding to the Seahawks and need to add to their defensive line via the draft. Jerry had a good Senior Bowl and scored a touchdown in the game. The depth at defensive tackle isn't that deep in 2009, so the Lions could pull the trigger on Jerry with this pick.

21 Philadelphia Eagles - Darius Butler (CB, Connecticut)
The Eagles filled a need at offensive tackle and will concentrate on the best player available on their board. That could easily be Butler, who beats his college teammates Donald Brown and William Beatty to be drafted.

22 Minnesota Vikings - William Beatty (OT, Connecticut)
Eben Britton's stock has fallen slightly over the last 10 days and with a premium on offensive lineman in the NFL draft, I won't be surprised if Beatty makes it into round one.

23 New England Patriots - Donald Brown (RB, Connecticut)
Brown makes it a hat-trick of Huskies off the board. The Patriots have a lot of pick on day one and will have their targets firmly fixed on Saturday. Running back isn't their biggest need, but I think they like Brown enough to take him here knowing he won't be around when the Pats pick at #34.

24 Atlanta Falcons - Clay Matthews (OLB, USC)
Matthews Jr has had an interesting off season to say the least. We won't know what effect this will have on his stock until draft day. Atlanta pulled off a nice trade to get Tony Gonzalez and offensively, they look pretty sharp. Defense is the order of the day in round one.

25 Miami Dolphins - Aaron Maybin (DE/OLB Penn State)
Question marks about his size could lead to a drop on draft day, but I expect Maybin to remain a first round selection. He would make a good fit in Miami's 3-4 at OLB.

26 Baltimore Ravens - Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR, Maryland)
Heyward-Bey is all about speed so he needs to play for a team that has a QB with a huge arm. His production at college was poor - he didn't rank amongst the top 100 receivers. That'll put a lot of teams off, but in Joe Flacco the Ravens have a quarter back whose arm can make Heyward-Bey a star.

27 Indianapolis Colts - Hakeem Nicks (WR, North Carolina)
Nicks' stock is difficult to judge but the Colts consistently draft for offense and losing Marvin Harrison - may look for a replacement here. This allows them to keep Anthony Gonzalez in the slot, with Nicks and Reggie Wayne providing plenty of ammunition for Peyton Manning.

28 Buffalo Bills - Brandon Pettigrew (TE, Oklahoma State)
The Bills haven't traditionally looked to spend high picks on their offensive line, so don't be too surprised if they don't make a big move to replace Jason Peters. Drafting Pettigrew will help their offensive front though - he's a true tight end offering quality blocking and receiving.

29 New York Giants - Eben Britton (OT, Arizona)
The Giants are less likely to get Braylon Edwards if the Browns don't draft Michael Crabtree, so receivers like Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks would be alternative choices. However, Britton offers some flexibility on the offensive line and the Giants might take him for value.

30 Tennessee Titans - Sean Smith (CB/S Utah)
I'm going with my instincts again here. Smith has size, speed and massive potential. The Titans shocked a few people when they gambled on Chris Johnson's physical qualities last year - it paid off. Will history repeat itself?

31 Arizona Cardinals - Jarron Gilbert (DE, San Jose State)
The Cardinals are going to be using more 3-4 looks on defense and their first round pick may surprise a few people. Alternatives include Alex Mack (C/G) and Connor Barwin (DE/OLB).

32 Pittsburgh Steelers - Percy Harvin (WR, Florida)
Everything you hear about Harvin at the moment is negative. I'm taking a gamble with this choice because the talented guy supposedly living in 'Percy world' could drop the same way Mario Manningham did last year. If anyone is up to the challenge, it's Mike Tomlin's Steelers.

Second round picks

33 Detroit Lions - James Laurinaitis (LB, Ohio State)
Not the most eye catching physical specimen, but he offers valuable leadership and would become the quarter back on defense.

34 New England Patriots - Connor Barwin (DE/OLB, Cincinnati)
Mike Vrabel mark II is the prototype New England Patriots draft pick.

35 St Louis Rams - Michael Johnson (DE, Georgia Tech)
Steve Spagnuolo built his championship winning defense on a dominant pass rush. You have to believe he'll fancy his chances of getting the best out of the talented, but inconsistent Johnson. Everette Brown could be an alternative.

36 Cleveland Browns - Rey Maualuga (LB, USC)
I like Maualuga and he's the perfect 3-4 ILB. However, if concerns ring true about his ability to play three downs - he doesn't go in round one.

37 Seattle Seahawks - Alex Mack (OG/C, California)
Mack has top 20 talent and could be a first round pick, only his position dictates otherwise. He can start as a rookie at guard or center, offering a much needed boost to the interior.

38 Cincinnati Bengals - Eric Wood (C/G, Louisville)
Don't be surprised if Wood goes higher than this - teams at the bottom of round one are said to rate him quite highly.

39 Jacksonville Jaguars - Evander Hood (DT, Missouri)
The Jaguars missed Marcus Stroud in 2008 and Hood offers some strength up front. Like Trevor Laws last tear, I think Hood will drop into round two.

40 Oakland Raiders - Vontae Davis (CB, Illinois)
If Davis falls this far, it won't be due to a lack of talent. However, his character issues might put some people off. Al Davis loves to draft defensive backs and would surely take Davis if he falls here.

41 Green Bay Packers - Ron Brace (DT, Boston College)
The Packers need a nose tackle for their new 3-4 defense.

42 Buffalo Bills - Clint Sintim (OLB, Virginia)
They added Brian Orakpo to play defensive end and now fill a hole at outside linebacker.

43 San Francisco - Everette Brown (DE, Florida State)
I suggested a fall for Brown in my last full two round mock and since then, I've seen this suggested in a few other mocks. None are predicting a drop as dramatic as this, but it would not surprise me one bit if Brown dropped into round two. Eventually, someone will take him despite his lack of size.

44 Miami Dolphins - Louis Delmas (FS, Western Michigan)
Delmas is the top rated safety in the draft and teams looking for help at that position could take him a lot earlier than this.

45 New York Giants - Kenny Britt (WR, Penn State)
If the Giants don't get Braylon Edwards, they know they can get value at receiver in round two. If Britt's off the board they can still look at Hakeem Nicks, Brian Robiskie or even Derrick Williams.

46 Houston Texans - Max Unger (OG/C, Oregon)
Unger represents good value here and the Texans could use extra help in their interior line.

47 New England Patriots - Alphonso Smith (CB, Wake Forest)
The Patriots are less likely to take a young corner having added veterans to their roster, but they might go value and take Smith with this pick.

48 Denver Broncos - D.J. Moore (CB, Vanderbilt)
The Broncos could do with adding a corner back, especially someone like the playmaking Moore.

49 Chicago Bears - Mohammed Massaquoi (WR, Georgia)
I like this guy, I think he's a second round pick.

50 Cleveland Browns - Brian Robiskie (WR, Ohio State)
Looking close to home for a receiver, the Browns take Brian Robiskie.

51 Dallas Cowboys - Patrick Chung (SS, Oregon)
This pick just makes sense. Great fit for the Cowboys who are looking for safety help. With only one first day pick, Dallas will be happy to land Chung here.

52 New York Jets - Derrick Williams (WR, Penn State)
So he didn't light up the work outs as expected? This guy can still be a playmaker.

53 Philadelphia Eagles - Jared Cook (TE, South Carolina)
I'm not sure the Eagles feel they need a tight end, Brent Celek did a great job down the stretch for Philly. If they do want to add depth, Cook could be the answer.

54 Minnesota Vikings - Kevin Barnes (CB, Maryland)
The Vikings will seriously consider taking a corner back with pick #54.

55 Atlanta Falcons - Jonathan Luigs (C, Arkansas)
Getting a center would be a good idea here and Luigs looks like a second round pick.

56 Miami Dolphins - LeSean McCoy (RB, Pittsburgh)
What's more surprising, McCoy still being here or the Dolphins taking him? It could happen in both cases.

57 Baltimore Ravens - Fili Moala (DT, USC)
Rated by Todd McShay as a potential 'number one overall pick' a year ago, Moala never lived up to the billing. With most of the top corners off the board, Baltimore may look to add to their defensive line.

58 New England Patriots - William Moore (SS, Missouri)
I'm not sure Moore isn't more of a nickel linebacker, but he plays like a Patriot so he could be the choice here.

59 Carolina Panthers - Jamon Meredith (OT, South Carolina)
Looking for depth on their offensive line, Meredith is a value pick.

60 New York Giants - Cornelius Ingram (TE, Florida)
Kevin Boss has done a good job for the Giants, but they might look for a greater receiving threat from the position.

61 Indianapolis Colts - Pat White (QB, West Virginia)
The Colts could find ways to get White involved early on as a receiver, but he could also be trained up as a better back-up option to Peyton Manning.

62 Tennessee Titans - Paul Kruger (DE, Utah)
I like Kruger and the Titans could use some youth at defensive end.

63 Arizona Cardinals - Andre Brown (RB, North Carolina State)
The Cardinals could take a running back even later than this with Rashad Jennings, Shonn Greene and Javon Ringer still on the board. This would allow them to consider interior lineman at this spot. Brown is the best bet here though if they do want to take a running back and this would allow Arizona to move on from Edgerrin James.

64 Pittsburgh Steelers - Jairus Byrd (CB, Oregon)
The Steelers might take a corner back at pick #32 with more options on the board.

8 comments:

Rob Staton said...

I missed this out on the mock, but there's a chance Baltimore will take Brandon Pettigrew. If that's the case, I think there could be some movement in the late 20's with teams like Buffalo perhaps trying to move up and get him.

Wes said...

i would love that draft. ok rob, here is my little mock for all the hawks' picks. personally id be pretty happy if i got some of these right.

1. Crabtree
2. alex mack or max unger (an interior linemen)
3. rashad jennings or andre brown (big running back)
4. michael hamlin (safety)
5. Jason Williams, OLB
6. Kevin Huber, punter
7. patrck Turner, WR
Grahm Harrell, QB
Alex Boone, OT

Anonymous said...

Crabtree and Mack would be a great draft on paper. I'm just as excited to see what TR does with the 2nd and 3rd picks as I am with #4.

Yung Hawk

Rob Staton said...

The value at the top of round two is excellent, I'd argue it's the equal of picks 22-32. For that reason, the Seahawks might receive offers to move down (like Baltimore did last year, to allow Seattle to draft John Carlson). That could net an extra third rounder, so something to keep an eye on tomorrow.

Having said that, remaining in a position to draft someone of Alex Mack's quality could be too good to turn down.

Anonymous said...

Not going to lie, it would be a very tough pill to swallow taking Crabtree at #4 only to pass on Kenny Britt at #37.

mark said...

Hey Rob,

Thanks for all your hard work on the blog....it has been a place that I've visited often....GREAT JOB!

I'm with you on the Crabtree pick. I just don't think Ruskell will be. If Curry is available, I think TR takes him. I'll be cursing at the TV, just as I do for almost every draft day. Hope I'm wrong!

marc said...

Rob,
Excellent job the past couple of months. I have regularly followed this blog and enjoyed the content.
My thought is based on reading blogs and understanding TR's draft philosophy. He's not going to draft Sanchez. He drafted Dilfer 15 years ago and that didn't pan out very well in Tampa Bay. The toss up if he keeps the pick is Curry or Crabtree. Curry is the kind of player he drafts. A polished four year starter. Crabtree, talented, young and could open up the field. My hunch as a novice GM is that he trades down to get the RB from Georgia. We need another Shawn to be with us for the next 7 years. Just my gut feeling, it's like filling out my March Madness bracket... where I'm guessing. We'll see in 15 hours. Thanks again. MR

Mind of no mind said...

I would be surprised to see the Hawks trade back in the second, simply because Mora said before that with their current picks that they're likely to get 2 top 20 players with the way they have them ranked.

Unless they only drop back a few spots while still having multiple top 20 guys left on the board, I think they'll have a player targeted that they think is special and won't risk losing him.